ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS
POKER
HORSES
CASINOS
LOTTERY
VEGAS SPORTSBOOKS
SEARCH
Login
|
Register
|
Help
HOME
SCORES
MATCHUPS
ODDS
FREE PICKS
CONSENSUS
NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
SOCCER
NEWS
MORE
EXPERTS
CONTESTS
COMMUNITY
SPORTS FORUM
COMMUNITY HOME
SPACES
BLOGS
FORUMS
MAIL
DAILY BABE
SEARCH
MANIFESTO
FAQ
Adal1205's Blog
Z Score
By
Adal1205
|
View all Posts
Posted Thursday, November 06, 2008 09:12 AM
3 comments
Hi everyone in the forum, I'd like to know if anyone knows about z score (tool statisticians use to measure the reliability of data) and how to apply it to sports system in order to make a much higher profit from it.
thanks in advanced,
Adal
Report Abuse
3 comments
Post A Comment
Tomspeople
says:
11/06/08 09:35AM
Zscores are simply just saying how many standard deviations away from the mean a certain observation is
There's a real notation but in simple words the formula is..
(Raw score - mean of all scores) / Standard deviation
I've never personally used Zscores in sports betting so I couldn't tell you how to apply it to systems. Although I'm working on a system related to standard deviation which of course as you know, is related to Zscores. You can find my thread for that a bit lower.
Adal1205
says:
11/06/08 10:29AM
Thanks Tp i for the information but when you have a system that is 34-16 how you calc the standard deviation(SD) and how apply the z score to investigate the noise of the data?
jarhead60
says:
11/08/08 01:45AM
Z scores are not a measure of reliability. Theu are mostly used to find where a stat falls on a normal bell curve. They can be used to put different series on the same scale for comparison.
An example would be football if you have a system that will forecast the margin of victory. Generally, one would take your estimate of MOV, subtract the point spread, and see if you have a bet. A problem develops because there are four variables--1) your estimate, 2)the betting line,3) the overlay, and 4)the actual MOV-- which all have different means and different standard deviations. If you have history of a few years of each series, you can compare z scores instead of raw numbers. Give it a try and you will find that this method will be a little better than the raw numbers. You may also find that you may only want to bet the overlays that are 1 or 2 STD's above or below average.
A spread sheet like excel should do most of the math.
Add your response:
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
Profile
User:
Adal1205
Joined:
October 2008
Location:
Team:
Occupation:
Recent Posts
Z Score
Archive
2008
November
Categories
Other
Advertisement