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11/11/12 NFL Picks

By AllLogicBets | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, November 11, 2012 02:30 AM   3 comments
ATLANTA (-2.5) at New Orleans (-110)
Have to take the 8-0 team to win by at least a field goal over the 3-5 team.  New Orleans has a great offense but easily the worst defense in the NFL.  They are missing a huge weapon in Darren Sproles but should be able to attack on the ground against the 2nd worst rush defense in the NFC.  However, the Saints have the worst rush defense giving up 177 yards on the ground per game.  Look for Atlanta's Michael Turner to have a nice day and allow Atlanta to control time of possession.  Matt Ryan has taken the next step this year and I expect him to outshine Drew Brees on the day since he has a much easier matchup and more weapons.  Take Atlanta.

San Diego at TAMPA BAY (-3) (-110)
This is a classic match-up of two teams heading in opposite directions.  San Diego has lost 3 of 4 while Tampa Bay has won 3 of their last 4.  In fact, San Diego hasn't beaten anyone not named Kansas City in their last 6 games.  Look for Vincent Jackson to have a huge game against his former team.  Give me the better team at home.  Take Tampa Bay.

DETROIT (-2.5) at Minnesota (-110)
Once again, this is a case of two teams going opposite ways.  After Minnesota's hot start to the season they have since lost 3 of their last 4.  Detroit had high expectations coming into the year and got off to a slow start.  However, they have turned things around and have won 3 of their last 4.  Detroit is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 contests at Minnesota, but they are catching the Vikings at the right time.  Minnesota has been getting gashed on the ground recently and their defense appears to have lost all of that early season momentum.  Meanwhile, they'll be without their biggest offensive weapon, Percy Harvin, as he has been ruled out.  Take Detroit.

DALLAS (-1.5) at Philadelphia (-110)
This one is really simple for me....Philadelphia can't block anyone.  Their offensive line is awful and look for Dallas to exploit that all game long.  They should get a lot of pressure on Vick early and I expect that to create turnovers as the game goes on.  Both of these teams are in a downward spiral and neither offense can be trusted in crunch time.  Philly is at home in a desperate situation but defense always travels well and Dallas has a good one.  Dallas is ranked 5th in the NFL in Yards Allowed per game while Philly is 15th.  Take the better defense against the worst offensive line in the league.  

HOUSTON (+1) at Chicago (-110)
This game is going to be a slugfest.  Chicago is all the hype right now after their 50+ point performance last week.  I think they are set up perfectly here for a let down.  Houston has been terrific this year minus the stumble game against the Pack.  Houston has the better quarterback, better running game, an equally good rush defense.  Look for Houston to make Jay Cutler look like the inconsistent and mistake-prone Jay Cutler we are use to seeing.  Chicago will be rocking with home field advantage on Sunday night but take Houston +1.  
3 comments
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betToWin111 says:
11/11/12 10:37AM
Nice picks, I completely agree. Throw in Denver too.
AllLogicBets says:
11/11/12 12:29PM
Thanks betToWin! I would love to add Denver but the odds have moved to (-135) at my sports book. If it was at (-110) still I'd be all over them.
duongtommy says:
11/11/12 12:54PM
I love all you pick but , I thing Atlanta will lost this game > good luck all
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