Arid_Torpor's Blog

Posted Saturday, August 13, 2011 10:17 PM

Your 2011 Tennessee Volunteers Betting Guide

Because I'm a fairly intense Vol fan, I thought it might be helpful if I provided some info on what to expect from the team this year. A lot of it will be re-caps of Phil Steele, but slightly more up to date. At the end, I'll go through the schedule and give my predictions of where you might see value on or against the Vols. I will include some of the fall camp chatter in the analysis. You may not like that because a lot of fall camp chatter is blowing sunshine up your ass, but Derek Dooley isn't that type of guy. He tells you what he thinks. And his demeanor has been night and day from last year to this year. Last year, you'd think from his interviews that Tennessee would be lucky to beat anybody (and given the UAB result, I can't blame him). This year, there's a lot more optimism. Very cautious optimism, but optimism nonetheless. 
So, let's get started. I'll give an in-depth analysis at each position and a summary in bold at the end. 
QB: Last year, the Vols had to replace Jonathan Crompton. JuCo Matt Simms took the starting job at the beginning of the year and proved a serviceable game manager and team leader but without the ability to make big throws and with a tendency to hold on to the ball too long, leading to sacks and fumbles. After two fumbles against South Carolina, Simms was replaced (despite being 11/13 passing) by true freshman Tyler Bray, who proceeded to throw a pick six on his first attempt. However, he led the team back and tied the... [More]

Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 11:22 AM

College football futures thoughts

I know that DoubleUp has a killer futures thread, but I thought I'd start one with my own thoughts and questions for this year. Have cash at 5dimes, Bodog, and Bet Islands, so will be comparing lines at these three locations. 5dimes, of course, is generally the best here. 
So far, I have one play:

Ohio U. +1000 to win the MAC at Bet Islands

Honestly, I haven't even done my research on the MAC yet this year, but this is +500 on BoDog (although it's unbettable for some reason--the lines are up but the wagers are closed) and +495 on 5dimes. That big of a discrepancy on one of the teams I'd flagged for further research told me I should go ahead and take the line while I have it. 

Their two biggest competitors in the East changed coaches this year, and one of them hired Steve Addazio. Additionally, Miami benefitted last year from a ton of close wins. By process of elimination alone, the Bobcats are a strong pick to make the championship game. But they also return five starters on the offensive line, and their MAC schedule is about as easy as they come. 

Bet Islands doesn't have their divisional odds up yet for the MAC, but I'll do a little more research when those come out. A championship game loss is my kneejerk expectation for Ohio, but 10/1 is too tempting for a team that I expect to make the title game. 

Will post more thoughts/plays over the weekend. 


User: Arid_Torpor
Joined: November 2005
Location: North Carolina
Team: Tennessee Volunteers
Occupation: Student

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