Ashton_Grewal's Blog

Posted Sunday, February 07, 2010 09:09 AM

Are we overrating Dwight Freeney’s significance?

Should Dwight Freeney’s sprained ankle really be affecting the Super Bowl pointspread? Actually, should any defensive player move a football line?

The SB pointspread had reached as high as Saints +6 last weekend and it looked like it could go up another half point or so before kickoff. But when news broke about the severity of Freeney’s injury, bettors jumped on the underdogs and books were forced to drop the line.

Betjamaica.com is now dealing Colts -5.

If the betting market is accurate, then Freeney is worth roughly 1.5 points. I’m not sure I’m buying that.

Now, Freeney is without question one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. He’s relentless, possesses enough spin moves to make Buzz Armstrong dizzy and he’s constantly on the mind of opposing offensive coordinators.

But how many plays on average does he actually make an impact during the course of a game? Five or six?

Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker for Lucky’s Sportsbook, told me that there’s only been one defensive player since Lawrence Taylor that he’d adjust his line for.

“The Steelers aren’t the same team when Troy Polamalu isn’t in the lineup,” Vaccaro said.

The Steelers ATS record with and without Polamalu speaks for itself (3-7-1 this season).

Football might be the best team sport in the world, but the truth is that only one position really radically affects the pointspread, and that’s the guy under center.

Chad Millman, ESPN’s gambling columnist, n... [More]

Posted Monday, February 01, 2010 10:06 AM

Respected Vegas sharp bets $200,000 on Colts to win Super Bowl

Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal wrote an interesting piece about onslaught of Colts action for this weekend's Super Bowl.

The story includes a quote from Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sportsbook, saying he thinks the line will close at Colts -7 by kickoff.

"I really think we're going to see a line that reaches 7 before the game. I didn't think that 48 hours ago, but I do now," Vaccaro told the Vegas paper Sunday night.

Youmans also writes that several sources told him "the most respected sports bettor in Las Vegas" wagered $200,000 on the Colts to win the game at a book on the Strip.

You can still grab the Colts at -5.5 (-110) at Betjamaica.com.