Ashton_Grewal's Blog

Posted Sunday, September 25, 2011 09:27 PM

Things I don’t understand from NFL Week 3

I write an NFL picks column every week and pretend to know what I’m talking about. Then I watch the games and… well… let’s just say it’s a humbling experience.

So I’ve decided to write a blog every Sunday night sharing some of things that have me more confused than Donovan McNabb in a two-minute offense.

How the Falcons could be help to fewer than 14 points in two of three games

I mean, am I just guilty of looking at Atlanta’s offense through my Madden ’12 eyes? I see Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez line up and I think touchdowns. Either the Dirty Birds’ playmakers aren’t as good as I thought they were or the playing calling is south of sub-par.

How the Eagles can always stink in short yardage

I don’t have the numbers in front of me – and if you can find them you win a used Covers.com coffee cup in it for you – but Philly has to be last in the league in conversions on 3rd and short. Big play down field? No problem for Andy Reid’s offense. Need two yards on 3rd down? Talk to somebody else.

What happens to Minnesota at half time?

Like is it something in the Gatorade or something? In three games Minnesota has been outscored  67-6 after the second quarter. The weirder part? The Vikings are outscoring opponents 54-7 in the first half.

How Philip Rivers can only get 4.44 fantasy points against KC?

Didn’t watch the game. I just know that if I lose in fantasy this week, it’ll be on Rivers. So think about t... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 08:31 AM

Late NFL Week 1 line moves

I'm seeing some late movement on some of today's NFL games. Here's a quick scan of the lines worth watching.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams (+5.5 to +4)

Looks like the "Dream Team" isn't getting the public support everyone thought they would right off the bat. The Rams are no slouches but an oddsmaker told me a few weeks ago that he wouldn't be surprised if this line got bet up to Eagles -7.

Instead the spread is dropping with a few Rams +3.5s out there.

My lean: Buying a half point to get the Eagles at -3 sounds like a good play.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7 to -6.5)

Only a half point move here but it's a big one because it's coming off that touchdown spread. A move off the key number makes me love the Cards even more. They're my and Covers Expert David Malinsky's survivor pool pick this week.

Lean: Load up on Arizona. I've got a feeling they're going to blow out the Panthers.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4 to -6)

I see this as an overreaction to the injuries in the Cowboys' secondary. I think this would be a bigger deal if Dallas were facing Tom Brady. Mark Sanchez doesn't have any DBs shaking in their cleats.

My lean: Already liked the Boys at +5 and I'll put another unit on them at +6.... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 01, 2011 11:00 AM

Why no love for NFL Week 4 preseason?

For those of you looking for more editorial coverage of the final week of the NFL preseason, let me try to answer that request in this blog.

Here at Covers.com, we try our best to supply information that will help average Joe’s and sharp bettors too. We aim to dish the goods on who’s hurt, why this line is going up, how the weather could drop that total and which games are getting hit hardest by wiseguys.

Essentially, we’re trying to do all the prep work so that you could hop onto Covers.com  five minutes before kickoff and safely make an educated bet four minutes later.

That’s our goal.

We can’t do that in Week 4 of the preseason. How can I breakdown the Broncos-Cardinals game tonight, when Denver coach John Fox won’t even tell us who’s going to quarterback his team?

You’ve got coaches trying to make decisions on the lowest guys on the totem pole of their rosters, backup players afraid of getting hurt and bookmakers putting $100 to $500 limit bets. That’s what this week is all about.

We’ve done our best to supply our readers with as much helpful editorial content for the kickoff of the college football season. It doesn’t mean we’re hating on the NFL. Our coverage was balls to the wall on NFL preseason and future betting last month and it’ll only get better next week as we inch closer to Thursday’s season opener.

But for now, let’s go big on the college kiddies and ignore the NFL scrimmages tonight.... [More]