Andrew Luck’s best NFL landing spot

It could be argued that Andrew Luck, Stanford’s quarterback and the Heisman trophy favorite, is making more headlines in the NFL than college football right now.

Luck is the best quarterback prospect John Elway and it’s assumed he’s the automatic first overall pick unless you’re on some high-quality hallucinogens.
 
The “Suck for Luck” campaign has been well documented. After Week 7 we’ve still got three winless teams and two one-win teams.

But now we’re hearing whispers that Luck might pull a move made famous by another one-time Cardinal quarterback, John Elway, and put into practice most recently by Peyton Manning’s little brother Eli.

The “I ain’t going to your shit-bag team so don’t bother drafting me” move.

That got me thinking. Which team(s) is on the prodigy’s no-go list?

Off the three teams still seeking win No. 1, the Rams appear to be the least likely to draft Luck. Sam Bradford was drafted first overall just a year and a half ago.

That leaves the Dolphins and Colts left of the winless bunch, two franchises that don’t share much in common other than their embarrassing win-loss records this season.

Indianapolis is maybe the most stable franchise in the league. Bill Polian has been the GM since ’98, they still run Tom Moore’s offense and Tony Dungy’s defense even though both coaches left the franchise. And of course they still have Peyton.

Miami, on the other hand, has gone through coaches and fron... [More]

Things I don’t understand from NFL Week 3

I write an NFL picks column every week and pretend to know what I’m talking about. Then I watch the games and… well… let’s just say it’s a humbling experience.

So I’ve decided to write a blog every Sunday night sharing some of things that have me more confused than Donovan McNabb in a two-minute offense.

How the Falcons could be help to fewer than 14 points in two of three games

I mean, am I just guilty of looking at Atlanta’s offense through my Madden ’12 eyes? I see Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez line up and I think touchdowns. Either the Dirty Birds’ playmakers aren’t as good as I thought they were or the playing calling is south of sub-par.

How the Eagles can always stink in short yardage

I don’t have the numbers in front of me – and if you can find them you win a used Covers.com coffee cup in it for you – but Philly has to be last in the league in conversions on 3rd and short. Big play down field? No problem for Andy Reid’s offense. Need two yards on 3rd down? Talk to somebody else.

What happens to Minnesota at half time?

Like is it something in the Gatorade or something? In three games Minnesota has been outscored  67-6 after the second quarter. The weirder part? The Vikings are outscoring opponents 54-7 in the first half.

How Philip Rivers can only get 4.44 fantasy points against KC?

Didn’t watch the game. I just know that if I lose in fantasy this week, it’ll be on Rivers. So think about t... [More]

Late NFL Week 1 line moves

I'm seeing some late movement on some of today's NFL games. Here's a quick scan of the lines worth watching.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams (+5.5 to +4)

Looks like the "Dream Team" isn't getting the public support everyone thought they would right off the bat. The Rams are no slouches but an oddsmaker told me a few weeks ago that he wouldn't be surprised if this line got bet up to Eagles -7.

Instead the spread is dropping with a few Rams +3.5s out there.

My lean: Buying a half point to get the Eagles at -3 sounds like a good play.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7 to -6.5)

Only a half point move here but it's a big one because it's coming off that touchdown spread. A move off the key number makes me love the Cards even more. They're my and Covers Expert David Malinsky's survivor pool pick this week.

Lean: Load up on Arizona. I've got a feeling they're going to blow out the Panthers.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4 to -6)

I see this as an overreaction to the injuries in the Cowboys' secondary. I think this would be a bigger deal if Dallas were facing Tom Brady. Mark Sanchez doesn't have any DBs shakin... [More]

Why no love for NFL Week 4 preseason?

For those of you looking for more editorial coverage of the final week of the NFL preseason, let me try to answer that request in this blog.

Here at Covers.com, we try our best to supply information that will help average Joe’s and sharp bettors too. We aim to dish the goods on who’s hurt, why this line is going up, how the weather could drop that total and which games are getting hit hardest by wiseguys.

Essentially, we’re trying to do all the prep work so that you could hop onto Covers.com  five minutes before kickoff and safely make an educated bet four minutes later.

That’s our goal.

We can’t do that in Week 4 of the preseason. How can I breakdown the Broncos-Cardinals game tonight, when Denver coach John Fox won’t even tell us who’s going to quarterback his team?

You’ve got coaches trying to make decisions on the lowest guys on the totem pole of their rosters, backup players afraid of getting hurt and bookmakers putting $100 to $500 limit bets. That’s what this week is all about.

We’ve done our best to supply our readers with as much helpful editorial content for the kickoff of the college football season. It doesn’t mean we’re hating on the NFL. Our coverage was balls to the wall on NFL preseason and future betting last month and it’ll only get better next week as we inch closer to Thursday’s season opener.

... [More]

Just like NFL teams, bettors have some cram work to do

I don’t know about you guys but I’ve moved past worrying about whether the NFL season is in doubt or not. It’s pretty clear a new collective bargaining will be signed, sealed and delivered by the end of the week.

But the lockout has screwed up the timing normally involved in my offseason capping procedure. Because I have waaaaay too much time on my hands and because I love the NFL, I normally have team ratings wrapped up by this point of the summer.

But the freeze on player movement and lack of communication between rookies and their new coaches have me pretty confused about which teams are in better shape than others heading into training camp.

We aren’t going to be able to ignore preseason football this August my friends. Those games are going to be must-see TV for NFL bettors who don’t want to fail the exam once the regular season rolls around.

It’ll probably be the first time watching NFL football has ever seemed like work, but it’s a small price to pay. I think there’s a really good opportunity for attentive bettors to gauge which teams will be over and underrated in the first couple weeks of the season.

Here’s a good link to get your pro football brain juices flowing again. 

Sucky NFL writer delivers favorite sucker bet of the week

So I know betting teasers is a total sucker play. I’ve been told multiple times by sharp bettors that I should steer clear of bush league bets like teasers, but I can’t help myself.

They’re like the butter on my movie popcorn - bad for me in the long haul but satisfyingly greasy. 

I won my three-team teaser in Week 2 (Saints, Falcons and Packers), and I think I found another winning triple play on the Week 4 betting board.

Here’s the 6-point, three-teamer I’ve got in mind:

All odds courtesy of BetJamaica.com.

New York Jets (Pick) at Buffalo Bills

Don’t fool yourselves folks, Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks. He sucks just like every Bills quarterback has since Jim Kelly. Which is more likely, that a guy who played in the Ivory League is a rising star or that the Pats secondary is atrocious? Yeah, thought so. I’ll take door No. 2 as well.

Jets signal caller Mark Sanchez isn’t overlooking the Bills. He remembers all too well how shitty he was against Buffalo last year. How can bettors forget that 5 INT performance?

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-0.5)

Is there a more inept coaching staff in the league than the 49ers... [More]