Donaghy playing the blame game

So Tim Donaghy wants us to believe he never fixed any games even though he’s a degenerate gambler?

Really?

So the thought of a little whistle here and a little non-call there during games never entered his mind when money was on the line?

I’m not buying it and I don’t think anybody on Covers is either.

He’s telling us a bunch of half truths to try and dilute his part in the scandal.

Do superstar calls exist?

Of course.

Do NBA refs let players get away with traveling?

All the time.

Are there some officials that have inappropriate relationships with coaches and players?

You betcha.

But that doesn’t mean Donaghy should be absolved.

He’s like he’s saying, “I’m not the one you should be worried about. NBA Commissioner David Stern is the one rigging everything.”

Gimme a break.

Donaghy brags that it was “easy money” picking winners because of his inside information. But James Battista, the mobbed-up dude Donaghy was feeding picks, says he wasn’t interested in any selections on games Donaghy wasn’t working.

“I got tired of losing those,” Battista told HBO’s Bryant Gumbel. “I told him, ‘Just give me the games you’re working.’”

Donaghy maintains that he called clean games and tells everyone that the FBI and NBA have confirmed that. Of course, according to the New York Post’s Peter Vecsey, the FBI and NBA never talked to Battista.

Pete Rose told a similar story. Fir... [More]

Hockey fever spills into NHL season

Count me as one of those guys who’ve been infected with the hockey bug because of the Olympics.

As a member of a hockey-fanatic nation, I’ve been forced-fed the sport since Wayne Gretzky first popularized the mullet.  

Normally, I’d rather watch professional bowling than an NHL regular season game, but Olympic hockey numbed my usual resistance to the puck.

I tuned into a Flyers-Lightning game last week and was pleasantly surprised by the end-to-end excitement. Even though the Lightning, who’ve become my favorite team because I’m hoping I can catch a playoff a game when I go to Tampa in May, got blown out by Philly, I saw just how good TB’s Steven Stamkos is.

If you look around the league you’ll find that almost every team is stocked with young, highly-skilled players.

I plan on watching as much hockey as a can over the next month so that I’m in a position to make some educated bets in the postseason.

Until then, here is my totally ill-informed Stanley Cup futures play: Buffalo Sabres +1400 at Betjamaica.com.

Are we overrating Dwight Freeney’s significance?

Should Dwight Freeney’s sprained ankle really be affecting the Super Bowl pointspread? Actually, should any defensive player move a football line?

The SB pointspread had reached as high as Saints +6 last weekend and it looked like it could go up another half point or so before kickoff. But when news broke about the severity of Freeney’s injury, bettors jumped on the underdogs and books were forced to drop the line.

Betjamaica.com is now dealing Colts -5.

If the betting market is accurate, then Freeney is worth roughly 1.5 points. I’m not sure I’m buying that.

Now, Freeney is without question one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. He’s relentless, possesses enough spin moves to make Buzz Armstrong dizzy and he’s constantly on the mind of opposing offensive coordinators.

But how many plays on average does he actually make an impact during the course of a game? Five or six?

Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker for Lucky’s Sportsbook, told me that there’s only been one defensive player since Lawrence Taylor that he’d adjust his line for.

“The Steelers aren’t the same team when Troy Polamalu isn’t in the lineup,” Vaccaro said.

The Steelers ATS record with and without Polamalu speaks for itself (3-7-1 this season).

Football might be the best team sport in the world, but the truth is tha... [More]

Respected Vegas sharp bets $200,000 on Colts to win Super Bowl

Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal wrote an interesting piece about onslaught of Colts action for this weekend's Super Bowl.

The story includes a quote from Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sportsbook, saying he thinks the line will close at Colts -7 by kickoff.

"I really think we're going to see a line that reaches 7 before the game. I didn't think that 48 hours ago, but I do now," Vaccaro told the Vegas paper Sunday night.

Youmans also writes that several sources told him "the most respected sports bettor in Las Vegas" wagered $200,000 on the Colts to win the game at a book on the Strip.

You can still grab the Colts at -5.5 (-110) at Betjamaica.com.

Memo to Goodell: Let the Pro Bowl die

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is always looking for ways to increase revenue for his league. But Goodell has limited options for expanding the wallets of his owners because of the dominance pro football has in the United States.

That’s why he keeps pushing for more games overseas (where no one knows anything or cares to learn about American football) and that’s way he’s trying to resuscitate the Pro Bowl.

Goodell’s idea to move his All-Star event to the week before the Super Bowl – rather than the week after – isn’t going to save it.

Somebody needs to explain to the Commish that some things - like S Club 7, Mel Gibson or Dawson’s Creek – just aren’t worth saving.  

Football is a brutally physical and anytime players aren’t going all-out on every hit, the game becomes borderline unwatchable. Players don’t want to get hurt in the game and hurt players definitely aren’t interested in toughing it out for a chance to play in a meaningless game that nobody cares about.

Just look at the list of players who won’t be playing. There are 29 of them if you include the Super Bowl participants who’ll be there only for the photo and sponsor obligations.

Among the list of players who won’t be wearing shoulder pads on Sunday are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Phillip Rivers. Forgive me, but aren’t those the best quarterbacks in the game? Do you think anyone would watch the NBA All-Star Game if Kobe Bryant and LeBron James w... [More]

NFL Week 11 injuries bettors should know about

ESPN says Broncos QB Kyle Orton will be a game-time decision but the Denver Post said on Saturday that it would take an “overnight medical miracle” for Orton’s ankle to be game ready.

That means bettors should expect to see Chris Simms under center against the San Diego Chargers. Simms looked awful last week in relief but he did play well in the preseason.

The Broncos are 5.5 home dogs with the total set at 41.5.

The New York Giants will try and break their four-game losing streak and they’ll have to do it without Antonio Pierce. The middle linebacker is out indefinitely because of a bulging disc in his neck.

The Giants' defense has been playing shorthanded all season but this could be the biggest blow yet. Pierce is the unquestioned leader of the stopper unit and will be missed against the Atlanta Falcons today.

The Falcons will be down their best rushing weapon against the G-Men. Michael Turner will not play and Jerious Norwood is questionable even though he did practice on Friday. Jason Snelling should get the majority of the carries.

NYG is 7-point home fave against the Falcons today. The total is set at 46.

Another NFC East club will be missing a key defensive player on Sunday. The Washington Redskins say that All-Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is unlikely to play against the Dallas Cowboys due to a sore ankle.

The Skins are getting 11 points today with the total sitting at 41.5.

All odds... [More]

D-Wade is the best bet to win the MVP award

NBA writers are generous in nature. They are the people who decide the league MVP each year and they like to spread the love around.

If they followed the definition of the award (Most Valuable Player), Michael Jordan would have retired with at least a dozen golden figurines.

It only makes sense then that the smart money is on Dwyane Wade to take home this year’s honors. Wade was at the top of the leader board last season with LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.

He enters this year as the lone player among the trio without a regular season MVP in his trophy case. If Wade puts up similar numbers to Bryant and James, the writers won’t be able to resist rewarding the Heat shooting guard.

“It’s his turn,” they’ll say.

It might be hard to dispute that argument at the end of the campaign too. Miami will finish with 45 to 48 wins with a roster full of dead weight outside of the Flash.

Dwyane is surrounded by a dope head small forward (Michael Beasley) and an ultra fragile center (Jermaine O’Neal). And those are his best two running mates.

Go grab Wade (+500 at Betjamaica.com) today and thank me at the end of the season.

Report: Lions will start Culpepper

Carolina offensive coordinator has rocks for brains

Moss in, Welker out for Pats

Cassel out, Chiefs expect to start Croyle against Ravens

Does college football need a preseason?

I hate to recycle a topic from Skip Bayless and the 1st and 10 crew, but after watching two games last night I think it's something worth debating for the betting community.   I was all fired up for the first meaningful football since February, but those games last night - at least the USC-NC State and Oregon-Boise State games - were borderline unenjoyable.   The Gamecocks and Wolfpack combined for 10 points and zero thrills while the Ducks and Broncos were having a competition for the ugliest turnover.   The under went 4-0-1 in the five games with lines.   You have to ask if the quality of football would have been better had each team had more than just a few lively scrimmages for preparation.   Now some will tell me that there already is a preseason in college football. As Covers.com senior editor Jon Campbell pointed out in his column yesterday, 37 of the 78 games this weekend feature a D-1-A school against a D-1-AA program.   But is that what bettors really want to see? Should we be subjected to wager on games with pointspreads north of 40 or even 70 for that matter?   Of course there are some ways to make a buck in the opening weekend. The under is 47-38-2 in the first week in the last two seasons combined.   Here are the unders I like on Saturday (odds courtesy of ... [More]

Teams I’ll be fading early this NFL season

He makes it so easy for me. I didn’t think it was possible to dislike a person I don’t even know this much. But Brett Favre brings out the worst in some people.   I’m one of them.   So you can image my delight when I read the latest reports that his new teammates hate his guts too. Maybe Brett can make this all go away with a few gift baskets full of Wranger Jeans and Prilosec.   All this news makes my strategy of fading the Minnesota Vikings early on, seem even more logical. The Purple People Eaters aren’t the only team I’ll be playing against early on.   Here are two others:   Denver Broncos   Josh McDaniels is the wrong coach for this team. Offense is his specialty, but that’s not the area the Broncos need help with.   The club’s defense was embarrassingly bad last season. If you watched any Bronco games, you routinely witnessed opposing offenses running the same play consecutively with great success.   Hollywood studios would pay good money for that type of footage in Disney football movies. It’d be the defense Denzel Washington’s Titans ran over on way to a magical ending.   Mike Nolan won’t fix the problem either. The roster isn’t suited for his planned switch to the 3-4 formation.   And we can’t assume the offense is going to be as productive as it was a year ago. Kyle Orton is the starting quarterback, the best receiver is playing with the scrubs, upcoming tight end Tony Scheffler will be waste... [More]

Are the Pirates the hardest team to support of all-time?

I’m just typing out what thousands have already asked and what every last Pittsburgh native is screaming aloud right now.   “Oh, come oooooon!”   Pirate backers, I hear it’s best not to keep these sorts of things locked up.   The human psyche is a dangerous beast. If you don’t like it out of its cage sometimes, the spillover effect can be harmful for all those you hold dear to you.
That’s right, your baseball squadron is rebuilding for the 649th time in the last 17 years. Your team hasn’t won more than 79 games since Barry Bonds packed up his bags in 1992.   That means your team hasn’t been relevant since it was socially acceptable to do the Tomahawk Chop during a Braves rally at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium.   The Bucs traded away their starting shortstop (Jack Wilson) and second baseman (Freddy Sanchez), increasing the number of everyday players they’ve traded away this season to four. First baseman Adam LaRoche and center fielder Nate McLouth were the other two released from baseball hell earlier.   I don’t think there’s going to be any value fading Pittsburgh. I’m sure I’m not the only one making sick faces about the backwards direction in Three Rivers City.   Not to lay it on here, but your team lost 1-0 to the Giants Wednesday night, making it five L’s in a row.   I think ... [More]

Magic will win series vs. Cavs

When LeBron James hit that 25-foot prayer at the end of Game 2, I, as someone who has a healthy futures bet on the Cavs to win the championship, didn't feel relieved.

I sat there in defeat knowing that while my team pulled out a miracle win, there was no way Cleveland would be able to win this series against Orlando.

This league is - pardon the cliché - all about matchups and the Magic just happen matchup extremely well against the Cavs.

Mike Brown is comfortable playing one offensive big man and one defensive rebounder/hustler. The problem with this strategy is that it allows Dwight Howard to man the paint and leave the offensively challenged Cleveland big man - be it Ben Wallace or Anderson Varejao - alone to wonder the perimeter.

That means any time LeBron heads to the basket, the NBA defensive player of the year is there waiting for him.

That's only part of the problem for Brown. His best two-guard is too short (Delonte West) is too short to guard any of Orlando's wing players. James is the only starter who can effectively guard Hedo, Rashard and Pietrus but he can't guard all three at the same time. Plus having him work hard on the defensive end leaves him with less juice in the fourth quarter to create scoring chances for the Cavs. 

I'm going to load up on Orlando to win this series hoping to recoup some of the money I foolishly put on Cleveland a couple months back.

... [More]

Melo vs. LeBron would be a nice Finals consolation prize

I think the Lakers are better than the Nuggets and the NBA will get the Finals it wants (L.A. vs. Cleveland), but I don't think enough people are talking about how cool it'd be seeing Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James faceoff in the Finals.   The Black Mamba vs. The Chosen One would be fun to watch (and would make a hell of a video game title), but I don't think you'd see Kobe Bryant guarding James very much.   In the past when the Lakers and Cavs play, Kobe doesn't man up against LeBron until the final minutes of the fourth quarter (I don't understand why a guy who plays defense 5-10 minutes a game should be on the All-Defensive team). LeBron would have to guard his All-Star counterpart if Mike Brown sticks with Delonte West at the two guard (West is way too short and small to try and defend Bryant).   Now, Carmelo and LeBron would almost surely have to guard each other because they both play the small position (small forward) and they both have similar height, weight and quickness (although LeBron probably has the edge in all three categories).   I think Denver will win two games against the Lakers, but the Nuggets are still worth a small futures bet (+350 at Betjamaica) to win the Finals.   Whoever represents the West in the Finals should provide the Cavs with strong competition and help make ... [More]

Spread predictions for NBA conference finals

It’s safe to guess who’ll be the final four in the NBA playoffs. I like to put on my neon-green visor and play oddsmaker for the potential Game 1 lines.   The Los Angeles Lakers still have to win one more game before advancing but I think it’s safe to assume they’ll finish off the Rockets in six. Even though they were embarrassed (just admit Phil) in Game 4 on Houston’s court, the Purple and Gold have too much talent to lose again to the Yao and T-Mac-less Rockets.   Denver will put the finishing touches on Dallas Wednesday night (8.5-point favorite at Betjamaica.com), which means we’ll see a Kobe-Melo Western Conference finals.   There’s usually always a tax when playing the Lakers because of the team’s large group of backers, but the club’s mediocre ATS record this postseason (5-5 entering Game 6 vs. Houston) should eat into the duty.   And of course the betting public has affection for the Nuggets thanks to their sparkling 9-0 ATS mark.   I see the Game 1 line between L.A. and Denver opening at -5. An oddsmaker told me he probably open Lakers -6. The Lakers don’t seem too interested in playing defense these days but they have the man power to matchup well against Carmelo Anthony.   Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom both have the length and strength to jam up Melo from getting the ball where in ... [More]

NBA playoffs? Wake me up in June.

I love pro hoops.   My sportsbook account lives and dies with the league every season and I've been following the Association as closely as any MJ wannabe since Technotronic was pumping up the jam.   So it pains me to tell you I'll hit the snooze button during the first two rounds of this year's playoffs and I'll tell you why:   There are only three teams that have a chance to win the title this season - the Lakers, Cavs and Celtics - and until one of those three teams plays each other there won't be anything worth watching.   I'm sure there'll be some suspense in the West. Maybe a hot Mavs club can beat a Houston or Denver sqad in the first round.   But really... who cares?   The Lakers are going to the NBA Finals and there's nothing their conference opponents can do to stop it.   It should come as no surprise that Los Angeles is the favorite to win the Larry O'Brien trophy (+175 at BetJamaica.com).   Portland's too young, Denver isn't discplined enough, New Orleans isn't as good as last year and the Spurs' roster includes more antiques than a Smithsonian Institution.   In the East, there won't be any suspense until the Eastern Conference finals and that series might not even be competitive if Kevin Garnett's knee is still wonky.   I don't buy into... [More]

Over and underrated pro prospects

March isn't just a time for buzzer beaters, chestbumps, teary good byes and freshly cut meshes. It's also a time where young ballers can improve their draft stock. A solid tourney run can turn your average run-of-the-mill prospect into a sure fire lottery selection.   Don't believe me?   How high would Wally "I make dial-up connection look fast" Szczerbiak have been drafted had it not been for his performance whil carrying Miami Ohio to the Sweet 16 in the 1999 Tournament?   With that in mind I tossed together a short list of a few guys I think are a bit overrated and some others that aren't getting enough love on all those mock drafts I've stumbled across.   Not as good as you think:   James Harden   I know this crop of players isn't as talented as recent years but there is no way Beardie Mc-No-game should be considered a top 10 pick. He lacks touch from beyond 17 feet and athleticism, both must have to excel at the next level.   I see the qualties scouts like in the Arizona State player and I understand he's young, but if you're struggling to get your shot off against a basic 2-3 zone that sets of red flags in my eyes.   Jordan Hill:   I'm much more down on Hill than Harden. Hill's game doesn't include much in the way of post move or offensive awareness. He's a good rebounder and shot blocker but he's undersized to play the four in the pros and I have doubt... [More]

Road woes continue to haunt Jazz

Not too long ago a not-so brilliant NBA mind said the Utah Jazz were the Lakers' greatest threat in the Western Conference. I looked like a genius while Utah pushed its undefeated streak to 12 games. Jerry Sloan's fellas won and covered at Toronto and Indiana but followed that up with losses at Atlanta, Miami and Orlando.   The setback against the Heat was particularly hard to swallow for Jazz backers. As Ben Burns points out in this week's Bad Beats, Utah led by seven with 55 seconds left in the fourth quarter and eight with 1:37 left in the first OT. The Jazz couldn't hold onto either lead and lost the game and the cover in the second extra frame.   "We did a how-to on how to lose a basketball game, pretty much," Deron Williams said. "Fouling when we don't need to, trying to score when we definitely don't need to, instead of using our clock. It wasn't very smart."   I still think Williams and Co. are the second-most talented club in the West, but until they start winning some serious tests away from Salt Lake I'm going to worry about my futures bet at ... [More]

NBA glue guys

I've been watching a lot of pro ball these days and I've picked up on a few players that are - in my opinion - important to their team, but wouldn't move a line much if they were out.   In no particular order:   Chris Duhon - The reason Nate Robinson is coming off the bench for the Knicks is because of Duhon's steady play. Mike D'Antonio's system demands a point guard who can push the ball, make good decisions and shoot. The former Dukie fills all those requirements. He's not too flashy but outside of David Lee I don't think there's hooper more important to the Knicks' success.   If Duhon was out of the lineup I'd shave 1.5 or 2 points off the line for New York.   Mike Miller - His scoring is down this season, but if you watch many T-Wolves games (I think Rick Kamla and I are the only ones doing that these days) you'll notice the offense actually runs through Miller. The dude wearing the lady-like handband is aggressive off the dribble, attacks the rack and creates open looks for teammates.   Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair have improved their outside touch because defenses are collapsing on Miller.   If Miller were in street clothes I'd downgrade Minny by as much as 4 points. Don't laugh... he really is that valuable to the Wolves.    Luis Scola - The big Argentinian has been a Godsend for Rick Adleman. With all the injuries the Rockets have endured this season, Scola has been th... [More]

Who's worse: Raptors or Kings?

Which team is the NBA's worst? It's never a distinction any club aspires for and yet someone's got to hold the title. Kind of like the Oscars worst dressed that those yuppie entertainment folk appoint.   Some may say I'm making a mistake by leaving the Clippers out of the discussion. I'm not willing to toss the longest reigning champ of he Association's most embarrassing franchise into this ring... at least not this year. Even after back to back shell lackings from the Suns. The Clippers have some young talent and that's more than the Craptors or Queens can say.   The Kings are awful. They've won just two of their last 17 games and only compete when the Grizz or Thunder are in town.   This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Sacramento after GM Geoff Petrie traded away Ron Artest in the offseason. Petrie was active at the deadline trying to rid the club of some bad contracts, but in the process he traded away one of his best players and certainly one of the league's better bargains (John Salmons).   Toronto, meanwhile, had high expectations this season. The trade to acquire Jermaine O'Neal didn't work out the way GM Bryan Colangelo planned or the way O'Neal predicted (a newer edition of Duncan-Robinson Spurs circa 1999).   So, after struggling to decide whether his team was better off with O'Neal or Shawn Marion (whose contract expires a year earlier), Colangelo flipped a coin and took Pat Riley's garbage in Miami.   And so... [More]

J.R. got jobbed

Super Bowl winners & losers

It's not just the players on the field that are impacted by the result of the game. Here's a look at the repercussions outside the lines:   Winners   The books - While I'm sure the total going over the 46.5 mark cashed a lot of tickets, the fact that the Steelers won but failed to cover was the best side scenario for oddsmakers. (We'll have a full recap posted on the site some time Monday afternoon).   David Chan: The Covers Expert made us look like geniuses thanks to his prop pick of Santonio Holmes winning the MVP award. Does his incredible super-glue-toes catch in the back corner of the end zone eclipse David Tyree's catch from last year?   NBC: The network couldn't have hoped for a better finish to its Super Bowl broadcast. The peacock followed it up with a fantastic Office episode afterwards.   Losers   Review guys: I know the Cards wouldn't have had much of a chance at midfield with five seconds left and needing a touchdown, but there's no way Warner's last fumble doesn't deserve a second look. In the last two minutes of a half, it's up to the guys upstairs to decide whether a play should be reviewed. It seemed apparent to me that Kurt's arm was going forward when he lost the ball... more so than the other call he got earlier in the contest.   The air quality in my basement: Five men stuffing their faces with cheese-hamburger-salsa dip, pizza, garlic fingers and numerous brewskies led to an air pollution disaste... [More]

SBXLIII line won't drop to -6