Aussieguy's Blog
Posted Monday, October 27, 2008 07:24 AM
23W-15L YTD
Has the MNF Under draught been broken yet?! Well you wouldn't think so when the MNF Over sits so pretty at 8-0-1 this NFL season!!!!!! Therefore, would I be way too stupid to take a stab at the Under here???? Or is it more like a sucidial case, where one is stabbing his own self by taking this Under?!
Whatever the case, all i know is that Tennessee boast the stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points during their last six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, where they've given up just 268.5 yards per game (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).
I also find it quite interesting that over 84% of the bets taken so far have been on the under, yet the total hasn't budged at all. I don't think it'll move much either. ... Sharp money has been on the under
Pick: UNDER 40.5 for a 2.5 Unit play
Good luck
AUSSIE
Posted Sunday, October 19, 2008 01:37 AM
1- San Diego @ Buffalo
Did we all just witness the demise of the Bills?
Yeah, that's my big question for week 7: To rephrase it, Did week 5 produce the first of the many more to come losses for the Buffalo Bills - or was that just a slight bump on a very smooth path for them??? I really don't have the answer to my question, but I thought the Cardinals really smoked the Bills that week, exploiting some real vulenerable defense, which had not been exposed prior to that ugly loss (during their 4-0 run, they only surrendered 15 pts PG, before being given a free clinic by Arizona's offense) Not good news at all for the Bills! The only positive is that they now play in front of a home crowd who've been 'football-fasting' for a couple of weeks, and who'll be real hungry now to cheer their beloved team home to a victory after a bye-week.
Nevertheless, what worries me about the Chargers is that they come in to this encounter after a serious blow out win, and this is a perfect spot for a let down for them. Also adding to my concern is the fact that S. Diego isn't a very reliable team when they're tourists....
The good news for S.Diego however, is that they somehow know how to notch up a W when playing the Bills. Quite a few ifs and buts about this game, and that's why I have decided to only make a half time play here. Personally, I believe SD is a better team with alot of momentum and shou...
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Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 11:49 PM
19W-11L Record...
Before we get on with tonight's pick, let me get off my chest and say how sweet that blocked punt of Sean Morey felt! Seriously, when was the last time you all experienced such sheer joy (if you had your hard earned on Arizona, that is) in an NFL game finish??? Wow, kudos to that Beisel-Morey last minute combo play
Let's get to our play today now: LVSC put their heads down together and came up with a 42.5 total spread. The public put their heads down simultaneously and pounded the over, thinking that MNF on ESPN automatically warrants an over play, expecting another MNSF (monday night score fest) However, My 4 Unit question here is: Why is everyone so crazy about another MNSF? Is it simply because the couch potatoes at home want to see high scoring games on tele, or are they thinking these two teams have powerful offensive units?! Yeah I am aware that D.Anderson has been holding the fort somewhat, but who has he got on the receiving end tomorrow to throw to?! There are too many uncertainties, ifs and buts for the Browns. I'm not gonna' bother to cut paste numbers here from various nfl sites, but If you're a stat lover, they're definetely very unflattering for the home team.
Just to add more woes to Cleveland, they're about to run into a brick solid Giants' defense. Burres said that he doesn't care much about what happens off the field, he's there to intercept the passes and get the jo...
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Posted Friday, October 10, 2008 10:00 PM
18W-11L Record ...
I really believe if you're a hard-core Dallas fan you should be concerned at the way they've performed so far. I know some of you are thinking, what kind of an idiot is this guy, critisising a team which has gone 4-1 in the first 5 games but yeah that's the kind of "idiot" I am, drawing my conclusion after witnessing perhaps one of the most unconvincing 4-1 ratios I've ever seen! Also, keep in mind all you Cowboys supporters, that this is the league's hardest division, and if Dallas is to finish on top of the NFC East, they have to desperately raise the bar here. The Cardinals' offense, lead by the ever exciting Kurt Warner, has really caught everyone's attention raking in some decent numbers that are definetly worth a look! While we're talking about levels of expectation, the 'Zona Boys sit at the opposite side of the spectrum to that of Dallas. Therefore they have been swinging freely, as no one expected them to be the major contenders in the West! I guess we can all identify with the fact that it is much, much easier to perform when you're not under pressure. This has been the case with the Cardinals so far.
Let me also add that I was quite astounded to see Dallas last week, give up 16 unanswered pts to Cincy before getting their butt into gear in the late stages of the game. I don't think they'll be able to afford such s...
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Posted Wednesday, October 01, 2008 03:47 AM
8W-5L Record...
Gees, I dirtied myself on Tennis today breaking a sweet winning streak, but hey I am not going to win them all am I?! I'm actually thankful for a loss, because it keeps me humble and focused and not take things for granted in this business ...!
However, let's get to this pick cause this is where it's at today.
Finally the book makers opened the total here after what it must have been a very long hard thinking and number crunching session. They had the spreads out but they couldn't decide on the total. In fact, there still are books that don't offer a total play on this game at this point. Some books opened the spread at 19 and the total at 53! Vegas opened this at 57.5 and although early action has been on the over, the number has still come down a point and a half. Centrebet has this at 56 at the moment.
Broncos at home has become an ugly grave yard for most visiting teams, and the given spread suggest such expectation and trend to continue today. There's no doubt that Boise will be lighting up the scoreboard. I agree that L.Tech is improving every game, but I'm keeping in mind that the Bulldogs are allowing way way too many passing yards. Furthermore, they also seem to fall apart against highly ranked opponents. You just can't afford that kind of slackness against a high energy supercharged powerful offense like that of the Broncos. All trends b/w these two teams point toward...
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