Aussie's Cincinnati TMS Pick r.3

Tursunov - Murray The odds are stacked against the Russian here, in more ways that one.  Except  from not having lost to him on a mine-field, Tursunov has lost to the Scot on pretty much every other surface; 4 outta' 4 on clay, hard, grass and carpet, to be precise. We'll see how he fares against him in the Iraq Open next month ....   Nah, all jokes aside, there's so much value with Dmitry today. I wouldn't dare take him for the whole match, although that wouldn't be a bad one either, but First Set Win has alot of value.  Tursunov's serve has been brilliant thus far in this tournament, being helped also by the speed of the court.  Murray isn't the best returner in the world either, so if this goes deep in the first, then I really like Tursunov to get over the line there. In both previous matches against Safin and Gasquet, the Russian has looked as solid as you can get on serve. Both Gasquet and Safin are great returners and both take the ball early on the rise. I expect this to go the distance and Dmitry should be able to pocket for himself as well as for the rest of us, that First Set W.  At $3.10, it's a bloody ripper of a dog play. Pick: Tursunov to Win First Set 3 Unit play to win 6.3 Units profit     AUSSIE... [More]

Aussie's Cincinnati TMS Picks

Lopez - Seppi   Many would assume that this surface suits the big serving swift volleyi-er F LO, much better than his italian counterpart.  But as I already pointed out in my other article, the game is changing rapidly. I mean seriously, how many times have you seen F Lo, serve and volley over the past year? He too has opted for the new style of throwing bricks from the baseline. The only difference here however, is that F Lo ain't capable of throwing bricks but rather marshmallows!  His top-spin floating forehand and his boring backhand slice isn't gonna get him over the line today.  Seppi is a very decent player and not just on clay either. His height gives him a pretty decent serving percentage, and unlike F Lo he can really chuck bricks from the back of the court. Lopez can't match Seppi, but it'll be a very good match to watch.  Pick. Seppi the 'medium dog' for 5 Units    Gonzalez - Berdych Yeah what can you say about these two? On the one hand you have the raw talent of T.Berdych who, when he's on, can be the best of the best that there is in Tennis - But who's always been a betting liability for many of us here. Then you have Gonzo' who many thought would be the next big thing after teamming up with Larry Stefanki! His run at the Aus Open last year, many thought was a foreshadow of great things to come from the Chilean.  But the rest of the season however, was a Non... [More]

What happend to US Tennis!

If you happend to read the Australian Tennis Magazine or even if you read the Tennis forum here on Covers, you'll be faced with the big question; What happend to Australian (or US) Tennis??  What happened and who's going to be the next Sampras, Agassi, Cash, Chang or Rafter of the US and Australian tennis?? The answer to that question looks to be very very grim at the moment. Why is that? Everyone may have some theory or explanation, but mine is that the game has evolved whereas the US and Australian Tennis has not! It's as simple as that!    If you look at the centre court of Wimbledon for example and compare that with the centre court of 6-7 years ago, you'll surely notice a stark difference.  The 2008 court is worn on the baseline, whereas the court of 2001 has a straight line from the service line all the way to the net where you'd find no grass at all. Sampras, Becker, Enqvist, Rafter, and Krajicek had made their way one too many times to the net for the grass to be allowed to grow there.  Nalbandian, Acasuso, Montanes, Robredo, and Rafa Nadal have "deep respect" for the grass and they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. However, they don't seem to show much respect to the grass that shows up at the baseline.   ....   That my friends is the evolution of the ATP tour.  Most of the new up and coming players come and/or train in the slow courts of St... [More]

Aussie's Toronto Blessing - the last hurrah

As I said from the outset of this when the Toronto Masters started early on in the week, I really believed that it was going to be a great week from a betting point of view.  If you've played all the games I played and placed the units accordingly, at the odds that I've shown - then you should be real happy by now. I must say however, that the 6 Unit First Set wager on Kiefer last night was a real blow. Easy to be 20/20 hindsight vision "expert" now when it's all been said and done, BUT I wish i hadn't gotten greedy chasing the higher odds playing the first set instead of the match.  As I said in my write up y/day, I was more confident on the whole match Kiefer win than on First Set win, but the greed got the better of me.  Live and learn I guess..   On to the last game of this Masters Series though: I watched Nadal play Murray and manalive, I was in awe of him.  How good has he become??? Federer will need another Federer standing next to him if he's to beat Rafa at next month's US Open. I mean Rafa's defying physical laws - How can he retireve like that on hardcourt???? His phenomenal staunch defence would even make that of the Detroit Pistons' a couple of years ago, blush!  Murray was hitting some amazing forehands, and against ANYBODY they woulda' been clear winners. Rafa however, would send em back with real interest!  Therefore, there's no value at all betting on or aga... [More]

Aussie's Toronto Blessing - Semis

Nicolas Kiefer - Gilles Simon   After that amazing run in Indy last week, and after reaching the semis here this week, one question needs to be asked: How much does the gritty Frenchman has got left in the tank?! My humble answer to that would be 'Not much mate!'.  There are very few players that I dislike with a passion, and Simon's opponent is one of them! However, love him or hate him I think the German will get the better of Simon today and should roll himself into his first ATP final in years.  I still don't know what happend to Blake, but if he was 100%, then Kiefer's drubbing (6-1; 6-2) is extremely impressive. I also watched him the match prior to Blake and he was looking very sharp and hitting the ball very clean.  By no means am I saying that he'll get it done easily, but at the end of the day, I strongly believe Kiefer will be waiting for Nadal in the final! I am playing First Set Win only, for the only reason of grabbing the higher price (head to head price is $1.55 whereas First Set Win is $1.68 ... hopefully in an hour or so time he goes up a few more cents ...say $1.72?!)  Anyhow, if you don't get First Set Win options, then I feel just as confident (if not more) for Kiefer to Win the match head to head.  Pick Kiefer to Win First Set 6 Unit Play  and best wishes everyone AUSSIE  ... [More]

Aussie's Toronto Blessing Round 3

Cilic - Simon We played Cilic successfully against Tommy 'The Who' Robredo and he also looked pretty decent against A-Rod. But really, the teenager's great run has come to an end here against the GS ... meaning the Giant Slayer.  Seriously, taking out Fedexpress you automatically deserve a title like that. Yes, you may say whatever you want that Roger's lacking confidence and it's not his best self anymore, but really no matter what, he's still Roger Federer  It's a fair effort (gross understatement of course) to take Roger out in the first round! And believe me GS is no fluke. I mean look at Indianapolis last week!!! The guy is really really good and has many weapons. Cilic has a long way to go yet ...   GS will roll over the Croat today with much greater ease that many may expect! Pick: Simon 5 Unit play   Blake - Kiefer The odds are over inflated here as far as Blake is concerned. Obviously Blake struggled against a mediocre, average, middle of the road player like Tursunov. Kiefer on the other hand, disposed number 4 player in the world. Hence we have Blake at such high odds!  But really Blake is a much better and accomplished player than Kiefer, in so many ways. Kiefer is flambuoyant and will hit an amazing shot that you just want to see again and again, but when it comes down to the crunch, he is a choker and a hack!   Due to Blake's recent slump in form though, I am only betting him to take ... [More]

a Killing In the Name of ...

Yep that's right fellas, the Bookies made a killing in the name of Roger Federer yesterday. His first round shock exit in the hands of,..whatever his name is... Simon or Gilles (can anyone confirm as to what his last and first name is?!) handed the bookies over 2 million dollars!  The punters went crazy and took Fedex at odds of $1.05 or shorter!!!! Honestly, with all due respect, You've got to be an absolute idiot when you wager like that! No matter how much money you've got, no matter how big (or small) your bankroll, no matter how desperate - you should never ever, risk over 200grand to win a mere 10 thousand dollars!!! Such an act would make even Jess Simpson the smartest chick in the world. By the same token, there were some astute punters who took Federer's opponent at $33, at $80, couple of wagers at $500, and one at $1500! Not bad really, but the majority of the punters got screwed big time.    ....   Speaking of which, Ashley Harkleroad opened at $250 to win the US Open, but after her game got stripped bare by the Nr 111 Canadian chick, you can now get her at $501 to win the last major of the year! If you're game enough, I'd say that's a good bang for your buck!   On to a real athlete however, the big question with many sports books is, can Michael Phelps out-do Mark Spitz's record at 1972 Olympics, and win more than 7 Gold medals?! You can get $3.52 for Phelps to win 8 or more Gold Medals. I belie... [More]

Aussie's Toronto Blessing Round 2

Wawrinka - Murray When the books first opened VERY early on today, they had Wawa a slight favourite over Safin. I really liked Safin there! But alas, the Russian has now made room for the Scot and he's to face Wawrinka today, who just like that is a medium dog now. And I believe he's a medium dog for a good reason here. However, I see most punters out there dissagree with me, as Wawa is clearly the bettors favourite against Murray. He's drfited up to $1.75 from $1.52 when he first opened. I guess most people's assessment is being based upon their Head to Head meetings, where Wawa's come victories 3 out of 5 times. Probably, having won already a match on this court, only adds to Stanislas favouritism (Murray's coming out cold turkey here today) Nontheless, all of the above stats and trends mean very little to me today. I really believe Murray's game is much better suited to this surface than that of the Swiss guy. Clearly Murray is the better player here and he should roll over Wawa no worries today. My bet however, is the FIRST SET WIN only and it's a fairly generous one too! Pick: Andy Murray to Win First Set Only 7 Unit play   Ferrer - Gasquet Very hard to go past the Spaniard here. Gasquet's been struggling alot lately, and Ferrer owns the Frenchman. Needless to say, stranger things have happend (this young bloke by the name of Roger Federer for example, was taken out in the first round by Simon, or Gilles???? No commentator is sure what his ... [More]

Aussie's Toronto blessing

Cilic - Robredo The Croat had a great start to 2008 making a surge thru' the ATP rankings real fast, but since then Marin hasn't set the world on fire really. Although to be fair to him too, he's ran into some pretty decent names in the early rounds of various tournaments. However I like him to cause a minor upset today against Tommy 'The Who' Robredo.  Alot has changed since these two last met together, and I wouldn't take that match into consideration today. Cilic has a good game that is suited to this surface and if his backhand is on, he should roll over Tommy today. Pick: CILIC 3Unit play   Haas - Davydenko The only reason Davydenko is so inflated here, it's because he's been having a bit of a time off lately. Therefore,  the books are banking on his lack of match practice. But does he really need that much practice against Haas??? I don't think so! Nikolay loves the Nth American hard courts and he has had Tommy's number for quite sometime now. I believe he should breeze past the German today, no worries.  Taking him to win First Set as well as the match. Pick: Davydenko 5Units First Set Only         Davydenko 2 Units Head to Head Win   Safin still pending 4Unit play These should translate into nice  today Cheers everyone AUSSIE    ... [More]

Ashley unCovers her spreads...

As a sports punter all I care about, is whether a certain team or player will cover the spread or not! However this week, Tennis "ace" Ashley Harkleroad decided to draw our attention to her uncovering and spreading it out for Heffner's Bunny mag!   Not that Ashley can't slugg it out with the best of them from the back of the court, so please refrain from comparing this Tennis hack with the previous one, i.e. Kournikova, who couldn't even serve underarm!  But what I find even more amusing however, is that she's decided to shoot more pages for the magazine (8) than the combined number of games she managed to win in her first round loss this week in Stanford, against Bondarenko (7)!!!  Probably "sweet" Ashley shoud pursue a career in something which she's actually good at and where she can erect some interest, so to speak ... Truth be told though, please note that this lowly ranked player has good intentions. She wants to show the world that athletic women can be sexy!!!  Bloody hell, and all this time, we're sitting in front of our TV's thinking 'Why are these hot bodied sports chicks so ugly and so unsexy??'  But thanks to Ashley's revelations, we've all now been enlightend and our interest has finally been aroused in women's Tennis and its sexiness!! "I wanted to show that female athletes, who are very fit and muscular, can have very beautiful bodies just like regular models" she said.  My reply to that is much like&... [More]

Aussie's ATP Kitzbuhel Pick

Aussie's Kitzbuhel Open Pick

Good Evans...

Cats, Dogs and bookies mindgames

Being the degenerate that I am, I always enjoy researching the stats and figures prior to Friday night footy as well as after Sunday night footy. Just seeing how everyone faired is very intruiging to me; Hopefully some of you find this kind of stuff  interesting too! We're talking AFL here - Australian Rules Football    The books raked in the dough, as the Tigers pumped the pathetic Eagles. West Coast opened at $2.07 and were backed down to $1.72, which is a pretty dramatic move if you follow the books closely! Sportsbet took a bet of 100k at $1.80, and Flemington took a couple of 20 grand bets on the Eagles. Needless to say all three of the above got nailed by the wingless Eagles. However, there was a lucky punter who saw the opportunity and jumped on the Tigers drifting from $1.80 to $2.25 and plonked 30 grand at $2.25. He was a very happy bloke by the end of the Eagles-Tigers match.     Next week we've got a  sold out blockbuster b/w the Cats and the Doggies. The books are taking a gamble themselves on the depleted Cats and they have 'em as fat as $1.49 favourites, with the Doggies being only $2.50 dogs!! Obviously the bookies are playing on Cameron Ling and G. Ablett's injuries. But not all the sportbooks view this match up the same way. with  Flemington and TAB still favouring the Cats at a $1.33, and the Dogs going down to $1.95. Furthermore, the game being at Skilled Stadium g... [More]

Sweet or Sour? China here comes Roger and co

Big Bucks for the big Australian

A new record, in more ways than one? You bet!

That 5 set epic, apart from being the greatest Wimbledon final, set new records as far as Tennis wagering is concerned. Betfair took $1.2 billion in bets through the two week tourney, with $102 million bets on the final alone. Our Downunder Sportsbetting corporation, TAB set a new record too, holding a staggering $1.4 million on the Men's final.   In-game betting was an amazing rollercoaster ride for the punters also. Over 5 sets and an amazing amount of momentum swings, the sportsbooks went beserk as the odds changed dramatically several times during that 5 hour marathon.  On the eve of the Championships, Rafa was at $12, but the bookies opened him as $2.30 dog against Roger who opened at $1.80.  By game time Rafa went down to $1.72 and down to $1.29 by the time he took a 2 sets to love lead. Two match points away in the fourth, Nadal was as short as $1.07, with Fedex goin up to $19!!!  After the Swiss master tied it at 2 sets all, a Betfair spokesperson said, tens of thousands of dollars came in backing Roger at $1.35, with the Spaniard blowing out to $3.95 (anyone took him at those odds?? I'd love to know). He remained a dog for most of the 5th, only to become a favourite again after grabbing that 8-7 lead in the decider.   Dowunder books took a steady amount of bets but nothing bigger than 30k. Later everyone - AUSSIE   ... [More]

FedExpress took the wrong route to Wimbly

As my friend lil' K said, after 6.5 hrs including rain delays, there are 2 very sore boys in London at the moment. One of them however, is probably nursing his EGO more than his aching body.   Had he taken the usual Fedexpress approach and converted more than only 1 of those 13 break points, today we wouldn't be asking the question 'are we Fedup with Fedexpress' delivery method'.    You cannot expect to win the Wimbledon final however, when you hit well over 50 unforced errors and squander 12 break point opportunities! His tactic too, choosing to take on the Bull from the back of the court, was also another very dumb approach. There has never been, there isn't and probably there'll never be another one as solid as Rafa from the baseline. Even if they played on ice, Rafa would still demolish Federer from the back of the court. Arghhh It is very frustrating, because Roger has such a huge arsenal of weapons, but still he doesn't choose to use them when he plays Nadal. Please Rog, stop standing on the baseline and hitting that crappy backhand top spin time and time again. Slice that bloody back hand for goodness sake, give him a different look from time to time; come to the net and volley; drag him to the net by giving him a short ball now and then! Federer is the Swiss master but he desperately needs a good coach...     We shouldn't be too hard on Roger though, as there wasn't much between the two w... [More]

A bit of MLB trivia