Aussieguy's Blog

Kansas @ SOFLA Pick

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Friday, September 12, 2008 06:10 AM   112 comments
I am fully aware that the Jayhawks have been running red hot during the past fortnight, but I really think they're about to hit a bit of a brick wall here and be "slightly" more tested than what they've encountered in the first couple of games of the season.
 
The coaching staff have been running the Jayhawks to the ground this week, and the team doesn't just look tired, but they sound exhausted too!!
On the other hand, I think South Florida looks to be motivated to cause a minor upset here. It seems like they love performing in front of a big national audience too, as lucky for them, this game will be on national television as well.
 
The betting public loves a special talented unit like the Jayhawks, especially when the game is televised, and they've shown their love to Kansas via the books so far!! When Vegas first opened this line they had Grothe's crew  as 5 point favourites. However public love has made the line ease out to -2 now (most books have SoFla -2 at the moment) That is good enough for me to take. I suggest you do the same.
 
At Home the Bulls have a solid run, and in front of such a large national audience, South Florida should roll over Kansas no worries at all! Look out for Matt G. to improve his performance dramatically against Kansas this time around ...  
 
Pick: South Florida -2 for a 3 Unit play
 
3W-2L Record...
 
Let's get the paper here boys  Cheers and best wishes to everyone and Remember VB's on me tonight after we hit this 
 
AUSSIE
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112 comments
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backdooor_cover says:
09/12/08 06:15AM
i for one might be a sucker on the other end but i got it in early at +4.  Good luck as always to you
moneyfornothing says:
09/12/08 06:18AM
Your line assessment is flawed.  This line opened at -4 and is now -3.5 at most places.
says:
09/13/08 12:38AM
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Aussieguy says:
09/13/08 12:41AM
Not often you'd catch me, break my word, as I mentioned before that I will not post anymore on the whole line issue.  But just this one time ....

 

weathered, here shoot an email to info@5dimes.com and ask what line they had before it shot up to -6.5!!!! Also, ask if any other book they may be aware of, had it at around -2!

 

Hope it helps and solves any doubt or confusion.

Glad you won your bet mate. Best of luck with future wagers too

AUSSIE

says:
09/13/08 12:45AM
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ktt1977 says:
09/13/08 12:46AM
Sometimes it's just timing.  If you happen to catch Aussie's Picks when he just posted them, then you may get the lines he's offered before everyone jumps on the bandwagon.

I'm just lucky enough to be in the same great Country as Aussie so the time difference won't be that great, maybe the same because I'm from Victoria (Where VB comes from).



Keep up the Good Work Aussie. 



BOOKERTBONES says:
09/13/08 12:50AM
dang

 

 

 

Good call man        ......It was a coin toss....

 

BookerT

 

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO DAWWWWWWWWGs

Weathered says:
09/13/08 12:52AM
it's ok Aussie, no big deal anymore 

 

 

I have to go to bed....it's almost 1am here.....big weekend for me....large card for both  and

 

 

again good luck

joelags says:
09/13/08 12:53AM
i got usf at -3 a few hours before kickoff on 5dimes but they also normally give me options to bump it up or down. 
rod_steel says:
09/13/08 01:29AM
Aussie posts his plays well in advance of kick off
Aussieguy says:
09/13/08 02:00AM
Cobber

Let's start the Hoops season now mate. NBL tipping off tonight. Haven't checked the Pro Hoops forum for a while but will go on there later on before that Taipans game.

Playing anything tonight?  Later mate  

B-Runo says:
09/13/08 02:04AM
nice hit!!!
123 says:
09/13/08 02:13AM
Great win mate, grab a cold one and enjoy it 
Jumbo28 says:
10/05/08 06:16PM
hey aussie appreciate all your insingt just a regular sports guy from ohio , and think you a standup guy, good luck too ya
AMMO1 says:
09/12/08 06:34AM
Aussie

i dont type much or communicate very much on here but you my friend have been nothing but spectacular since joining.  hope your college football goes as well as your NBA.

Cheers Mate

Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 06:38AM
Nah, no mate, not flawed! I do my home work. The Line initially opened at -5.

However, I should have said that MOST books have it now sitting at -3, some have it at -2.5 and I bought the hook to get it at

-2. Majority of Australian books have it -3 at +115!

ALL That being said, I suggest still take it at -3.

Good luck to you   

NYCOWBOY says:
09/12/08 06:40AM
Another great pick last night. Thanks. GL tonight.
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 06:42AM
AMM01 , a man of few words.  

 

Right back at ya mate. Cheers and all the best to you and your's!

God Bless friend, 

AUSSIE  

lonetreejj says:
09/12/08 06:43AM
Aussieguy

 

 Great call on Over last night

 

I also like S.Fla; but the lines I see are at 3.5. My off shore is w/ the majority at 3.5. With majority of public (& #. of wagers) on KS, I'm hopin to get it at -3 (otherwise I'll just buy the hook.)

 

Personally, I like the under 47.5 even better w/ 90% of wagers on the over, the line opened at 50... is now 47.5. Beware Over Backers.  

 

 Good luck tonite Aussie

 

   

KasperNV says:
09/12/08 06:58AM
It should be a great game. I am taking the dogs in an upset. BOL
BiggDogg5n2 says:
09/12/08 07:16AM
Great call on the Over last night...

BOL today.....

Jason_Bourne says:
09/12/08 07:16AM
Phew aussie i was scared for a minute as i clicked but cheers  Lets get that fosters keg out tomorrow!
payne034 says:
09/12/08 07:33AM
already on it love it

 

BiggDogg5n2 says:
09/12/08 07:44AM
Hey Aussie...

 My book has SouthFla -3.5

should I leave it alone???...Thanks

Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 07:56AM
I believe the Bulls will put up big numbers here tonight and this will be much much easier than many may think! In my estimation, SoFla should take this by more than 10 pts. Therefore, -3.5 is still a very good line  AUSSIE 
Tinman1016 says:
09/12/08 08:01AM
Why will they put up big numbers? Kansas is a very good team and plays in the better conference.  Is Grothe the only reason you are taking them?
BiggDogg5n2 says:
09/12/08 08:09AM

Thanks for taking the time to answer my question...

God bless and cheers...

D-Town says:
09/12/08 08:11AM
Good luck Aussie. 
AMMO1 says:
09/12/08 08:13AM
WOW  Thank goodness i was on them earlier in the week at -3 before i saw Aussies pick.  i get to work and take a few seconds to check the numbers and my off shore is now at 4.  Good luck to all of us tonight......hope we all get good numbers.
danakers says:
09/12/08 08:50AM
Sorry to butt in but if I may...in my opinion, it's not just Grothe.  I am a huge Phil Steele guy and his preseason magazine had just KU QB and LB ranked 10 and 5 while USF QB, WR, OL, DL, LB are all in top 27.  On top of that KU lost alot of talent on draft day or to graduation, benefitted in 3 close wins last year AND from +21 turnovers AND only losing 3 starts to injury all year!!  Their offensive and defensive yards per point are projected to go down and the schedule is much tougher all pointing to a worse Kansas team than LY (at least for our purposes).  I have them as a fade all year (especially in conference play).  Now we all remember USF as the #2 team LY and they lost in a big game at Rutgers on TV then lost 2 more in a row before righting the ship then got blasted in the bowl game by Oregon...I think they remember that too and are able to pull off the win in the Florida heat and humidity (currently 81, feels like 89).

 

Thanks for letting me ramble

HotRoute says:
09/12/08 08:59AM
like it aussie, gl man
freightdog says:
09/12/08 09:20AM
Like USF tonight as well, but I'd have to disagree with you when you say "most books have USF at -2 now".  Looking at the line history off of covers, the ONLY book that has them or ever had them lower than -3 was 5dimes, and they still have them at -2.  I know that covers obviously doesn't show all the online books available, but this is a pretty good chunk of them.  That is definitely a great catch at -2, I bought in at -3.5 and still feel safe but I would love to have the security of -2.

 

On a side note, anybody know why 5dimes is the only one offering -2???  I'm curious.

 

GL tonight 

luckylogan says:
09/12/08 09:36AM
Aussie..I'm on the other side after watching USF struggle with UCF in overtime-a team they beat by 60 last year!! Kansas is too tough on both sides of the ball,and I believe they win by a field goal!They shut out LA.Tech last week-and kept their offense under wraps for tis one!! Gl to all!!
luckylogan says:
09/12/08 09:39AM
Aussie -KU returns 10 on defense froma good defensive team that plays Big-12 football! No friggin way USF wins by 10--if at all!
HUFFERZZ says:
09/12/08 10:14AM
Danakers mentioned that Kansas lost alot of talent.  On offense they lost 5 players.  Rb McAnderson, Wr Henderson, the TE.  Kansas replaced the Wr with Patterson who had 130/2td performance vs La Tech.  Rb Quigley ran for 84 yd.  The defense return all but two,  their DT and CB, on a team that gave up 16.4 points a game.  The defense has been stout giving up only 10 points in two games.  With SFU struggling against CFU last week, I like Kansas to win the game outright, but it will be low scoring.  If SFU struggles on offense again Kansas will blow out SFU.  My guess will be 31-10 KANSAS
JJWeezer says:
09/12/08 10:39AM
I was at last years #2 USF/WVA game and when the attendence is up, USF does not dissapoint...in which, that was USF's 1st sellout in RayJay (65K) and as of today, only nose bleeds are available...so, we have the 12th man. 62 lettermen return for USF, but the 2 stud CB's are in the NFL....which we saw that concern unfold as UCF ate their lunch in the final 3 minutes. But, adjustments will be made... the state of FL consistantly ranks #1 in the US in recruiting, and despite the UCF meltdown, it was away, in FL (we could not get a ticket) vs a jaded UCF team...and BTW, they won. The D line was not dominant and I look for Selvie and crew to also make adjustments to pressure the QB....Kansas is only 7-16 in their last 23 on road...with that, I like USF, by 4 in a tight game, which is why I'm betting light on this game....Also, it is hot as hell right now, and at kickoff, it will be a sweat box. GL gents!
elijahwon says:
09/12/08 10:40AM
Aussie Dude what up!!!!!  South Florida is the class of the Of a very weak Big east this year but Kansas will not be able to match the team speed of USF.  Like you stated I think USF covers easily in a low scoring game.  Fosters all around mate CHEERS!!!!!
killthebookie says:
09/12/08 10:49AM
Aussie..always respect your opinion but KU has a better special team (alot better then USF) + USF dont play well after UCF?? GL but i m going with KU ML and OVER
bigksolo74 says:
09/12/08 11:03AM
  Nice write up mate.....i respect your insight and nice call on that over last nite....gonna tail ya in this one and after we get this chedda  on me!!!

 

ThRiLLaOfManiLa says:
09/12/08 11:09AM
Im thinking of taking the over at 48  in this game anyone have any suggestions in this??  I was thinking about taking kansas but since almost everyone here is taking south florida Im thinking twice..
Chevyguy24 says:
09/12/08 11:12AM
nice write-up but im against ya
woopdurritis says:
09/12/08 11:27AM
Kansas wins straight up
king08 says:
09/12/08 12:16PM
GL
julio_cat says:
09/12/08 12:26PM
South Florida had an scare last weak against Central Florida, but they won in OT

 

hope they will be more focused tonight against a better opponent.

 

I agrree with your pick Aussie, GL

 

 

S_A_I_N_T_S says:
09/12/08 12:36PM
GL mate. This should be a good game & nice call on the over last nite.
515151 says:
09/12/08 12:40PM
indrep says:
09/12/08 02:05PM
Aussie, I'm going opposite as well. In my mind it's a play against the Big East conference. Don't be fooled that just because a team is from Florida that they are good. USF should have crushed UCF, they let them back in the game and nearly got beat. The big 12 is the better more athletic conference. It's will not be very hot in Tampa this evening therefore USFs heat advantage will not be there.

Kansas outright.

Last time I disagreed with you was with Troy and MTSU. I was wrong there. Quite honestly we are on the same page most of the time.

Good luck to you - enjoy the game

christian500 says:
09/12/08 03:00PM
I agree indrep.. I enjoy Aussies picks and follow them often as well. I really dont see why everyone is on South Florida so much. Did anyone watch the UCF/SF game last week? Grothe is an athletic quarterback, but he tends to commit horrendous turnovers. Central Florida was trying to give the game away with several stupid personal foul penalties, had an untested, mediocre qb, and South Florida still barely won!!!!
mkan20 says:
09/12/08 03:01PM

this is turning into a game that reminds me of unc the other night.  blah blah blah unc havent won outside of nc for x amount of tries.  samething is being said about kansas and their out of state non conference.  personally i see this going either way, so ill lay off.  i will bet the OVER on this one and enjoy the fireworks.

GL aussie.  maybe around game time ill end up backing your pick for actions sake haha.

Maestro664 says:
09/12/08 03:51PM
Aussie, long time since last post - so here is my confession - I like the home team in this tilt, they are a well prepared team, and I do think it comes down to special teams, unlike previous post USF special teams are oportunistic and shall show tonight.

 

Keep up the good work and I will try to catch you during my early morning tee time tommorrow and see whats happening for the sat sched.

 

Thanks and as always take care 

 

Maestro

AACHEN2000 says:
09/12/08 03:58PM

Aussie: I Also think South Florida will cover, yesterday the local team was kicked very hard.

I have read your posts and I would like to know what analysis do you make to pick your posts??? Do you have a special web page you visit, magazine or how do you analyze teams??

By the way I like a lot this weekend the 9 points that the Rams are being given at home, what do you think??

Thank you for your answer, good luck for your run. Good bless.

Sevencome11 says:
09/12/08 04:23PM
Should have listened to you last night. I took UNC +200 on the money line, we all know that went well. But then I took the Under...... Tonight I plan to roll with you Aussie! BOL
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 05:22PM
The sun just came up in the land DownUnder.

Thanks for all the comments everyone. Very good info by everyone. And yes, even to those who disagree with the pick, Good luck to you. That's what this forum is all about, agree to disagree.

Someone asked, if I was making this play solely relying on Grothe?! Absolutely not!! He's a fantastic QB who can dish and run the ball with such an amazing atheltic ability. However, I am taking into consideration SoFla's defence which has been simply outstanding. Kansas, impressive as they have been,  still haven't had to face any solid outfits yet to be fully tested.  Until they prove to me that they're as solid as some of the numbers show, I see them as slightly overrated.

AAChen, I will have to write an essay if I were to answer your Q here. But very quickly: first thing I do, I look at the matches on offer for the day. Then I set my OWN lines. ONLY, After that I go and look at EVERY SINGLE book I can think of,  and check what they offer on what team and I compare their prices with what I'd given these particular teams. After seeing and analysing the line diferential, then I start grinding the stats and crunching the numbers. Looking at the teams, current form, past trends their ATS, injuries, motivational factors etc... Then I read loads of non-betting related articles and how the hard core journalists and fans see a particular team. It's good to read their perspective too, without that Vegas edge. And then finally, I pull the trigger using my own final analysis, and hopefully staying just a mere step ahead of the books. 

Like I said, i'll have to write a thesis on this to cover your Question in depth, but this will have to suffice for now. 

Good luck everyone and hopefully with a bit of added luck we nail this baby.

AUSSIE   

JJWeezer says:
09/12/08 05:34PM
Indrep, with all due respect (have u seen Talledega Nights?) it is hot as bizalls right now, not a cloud in the sky here in Tampa....

And for those who say the "it's a play against the Big East" well, last time I checked, all of them suck right now, except for the 2-0 Bulls...and, KU is not playing the whole conference, just the cream of the crud conference!

That's why either way u go, tread lightly....later gents!

phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 05:40PM
    thanks mate u the man             
Chief-Concerns says:
09/12/08 05:50PM
Aussie- Great insite on all your post thanks.... I have got S Fla from my local at -4 would this still be a play for you. I know ur not mush on teasers but what do you think of kansas +10 over 41
RoyMunson says:
09/12/08 06:05PM
  gl aussie-  i'm on board with SF winning big..  since i took the over too hoping for  31-21 win 
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 06:08PM
Chief, you said it mate. I can't stand teasers/parlays! Yesterday, someone was greedier and parlayed my OVER with Rutgers to win SU. He also asked for my advice and I said, I hate the idea but yes take it! How wrong was I eh???

That's because the books are extremely extremely (repeat that about 900 times...) good at what they do! You can't beat them all across the board. You can find the edge in one or two games or on a total somewhere, but you can't beat them parlaying 3 teams so you get the fatter odds. They're not so "sweet" and "generous" to give you such a nice price for no reason. They know you've got your back against the wall, when you parlay. Of course, you might win one or two or three or even ten parlayed bets here and there, but in the long run you're doomed to fail. That's a lock brother!

To answer your Q, I still think -4 is do-able for sure. Kansas +10?! I really think SF should roll by more than a TD and a FG! Over 41? Yeah, I think that should go OVER for sure, as I believe SoFla will put up big numbers as i said earlier on.

But do  not mix and match your bets and don't hedge in betweens. Make a solid decision and STICK by it. Take that Loss just as "gladly" as you would celebrate the Win!

Whatever you decide to do, I hope you hit mate. Good luck everyone

spliquid says:
09/12/08 06:10PM
on the same side as you on this one.  Good luck.
Nawfside says:
09/12/08 06:28PM
Line is at -4 now. USF for me as well. GL Aussie.
insatiable says:
09/12/08 06:30PM
GOOD to see we are on the SAME SIDE BRO
chungnuoc says:
09/12/08 06:37PM
i dont think south florida gonna take this one.
ClassyAnski says:
09/12/08 06:39PM
I'm pulling the trigger on the BULLS -4 here as well.  Home field advantage is big in the Big East and I'm absolutely washing what Kansas did last year out of my memory banks.  SFla did not look good last week, but then again, it's a new week and they are at home.

 

 Best of luck and enjoy the game!

phancard says:
09/12/08 06:46PM
Kansas ML
green2145 says:
09/12/08 06:55PM
I have to disagree with you aussie man.Sharps hit the line early and the public hits it late.If it opened -5 and went to -3 or -3.5,now it's -4.Late action seems to be public but gl on your play.
backdooor_cover says:
09/12/08 06:58PM
Has anyone noticed how much action SFlor is getting.  My line just went up to -4.5.  Everyone here on covers is on SF.  Aussie i love you but like i said early im on Kansas.
BStizzle94 says:
09/12/08 07:02PM
I'm all over USF -3.5.  GL to us!
BigEastExpert says:
09/12/08 07:05PM
95AD248D803A4CEB94B3CD5850B3CC10 says:
09/12/08 07:09PM
I just took USF at - 4 1/2 , didn't get home until now and couldn't place a bet earlier. damn - 2 looks good Aussie, wish I nabbed it earlier.
Texasmademan says:
09/12/08 07:10PM
Sports.com has the line up to 4.5 now. I'm leaning towards Kansas on that note.

GL to all!

bigsal74 says:
09/12/08 07:17PM
HEY LISTEN UP!!! BIGSAL HERE!!!  KANSAS IS GONNA WIN THIS EASY.  UUUHHH  WHO WON THE ORANGE BOWL!!!!! CMON GUYS WAKE UP!!!!   KANSAS IS BIG 12 S.F IS BIG EAST S.FLORIDA AGAIN IS OVERATED.  ITS GONNA BE AN EASY VICTORY. KANSAS TOO FAST AND QUICK, TO MUCH FOR S.F. BESIDES KANSAS GTS THE POINTS DO THE MATH!!!
95AD248D803A4CEB94B3CD5850B3CC10 says:
09/12/08 07:39PM
- 5.5 now at my book
rod_steel says:
09/12/08 07:43PM
tankstevens says:
09/12/08 07:50PM
you guys are forgetting, WE are the public.
bigsal74 says:
09/12/08 07:53PM

DONT LOOK AT THE LINES LOOK AT THE GAME!!!!!!!  KANSAS IS GONNA CRUISE

shrewdie says:
09/12/08 08:11PM


That in itself is a good enuf reason to back Kansas.
AirRainman says:
09/12/08 08:14PM
aussieguy...how's the tennis been treating you?
bigsal74 says:
09/12/08 08:23PM
HMMMMMMMMMM  KANSAS 7-0  HMMMMMM 
weimar74 says:
09/12/08 08:31PM
sf is in trouble - cant win them all
bigsal74 says:
09/12/08 08:34PM

10-0 BOYS

 

indrep says:
09/12/08 10:23PM
aussie - Here is a slam dunk for you.

Ball State / Akron under 60. I live in Akron and can tell you that it's going to rain cats and dogs tomorrow. The field is turf, meaning that the defensive backs should be able to maintain their footing. We have a high o/u because of both teams recent performances. Take it for a unit.

urmoneymaker says:
09/12/08 10:30PM
lets go sf!!!
Emcee_CHi says:
09/12/08 11:15PM
Close Game Aussieguy!

so0o...any thoughts on tomorrow's Games?
 
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 11:16PM
indrep, that's great scouting/info mate. I like that to stay under too, especially if the weather's on our side...
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 11:37PM

Booooooooooom the BULL$$$

I know some of you might have gotten a push. That's just bad luck. I still think they should have won by 10! But I will take this.Congrats to whoever got this. And stiff luck to whoever had it at -3.5 or 4 ...

 

AUSSIE

ktt1977 says:
09/12/08 11:38PM
You are unbelievable Aussie Guy.
Well Done.
Weathered says:
09/12/08 11:39PM
wow - 2 huh?

 

 

what book did you get that number at Aussie?

 

 

I did not see any book with - 2.5 let alone - 2

 

 

seidelbox says:
09/12/08 11:40PM
Where did you get -2 Aussieguy?
robbie0570 says:
09/12/08 11:43PM
yeah you always post plays that seem to be one to two or more points off then the line we get here in the states or something... -2??? either you bought at least 2 points or your book makes up their own spreads....this line opened at 4 never went lower then 3.5 and closed at 4.5

??????????????????????????????????????????????

ktt1977 says:
09/12/08 11:45PM
The line moved too much this morning so the head to head at 1.5 wasn't bad value.
S_A_I_N_T_S says:
09/12/08 11:45PM
NIce mate! I put out a thread about 45 mins prior to gametime tellin ppl to middle the game if they had USF -3 or less and could get Kansas +4.5 or more. Many read, not sure who followed.  

BAM, it lands on 3 and double the  


ohioshad says:
09/12/08 11:46PM
GOOD CALL
Weathered says:
09/12/08 11:46PM

 

09/07 07:39PM: +3½ -110 / -3½ -110

09/07 10:02PM: +3 -110 / -3 -110

09/07 10:02PM: +3½ -110 / -3½ -110

09/09 07:31AM: +3½ -115 / -3½ -105

09/09 06:29PM: +3 -105 / -3 -115

09/10 04:11AM: +3½ -115 / -3½ -105

09/10 10:01AM: +3 +100 / -3 -120

09/10 03:06PM: +3 -105 / -3 -115

09/10 03:09PM: +3 +100 / -3 -120

09/10 03:09PM: +3½ -110 / -3½ -110

09/10 03:14PM: +3½ -115 / -3½ -105

09/10 05:42PM: +3½ -110 / -3½ -110

09/11 06:04PM: +3½ -115 / -3½ -105

09/11 09:55PM: +3 +100 / -3 -120

09/11 10:31PM: +3½ -109 / -3½ -101

09/12 02:36AM: +3½ -110 / -3½ +100

09/12 02:48AM: +3½ -107 / -3½ -103

09/12 05:16AM: +3½ -109 / -3½ -101

09/12 08:20AM: +3½ -113 / -3½ +103

09/12 08:22AM: +3½ -110 / -3½ +100

09/12 08:25AM: +3½ -107 / -3½ -103

09/12 08:26AM: +3½ -106 / -3½ -104

09/12 09:31AM: +3½ -107 / -3½ -103

09/12 10:20AM: +3½ -109 / -3½ -101

09/12 10:48AM: +3½ -110 / -3½ +100

09/12 01:39PM: +3½ -105 / -3½ -105

09/12 04:58PM: +3½ -103 / -3½ -107

09/12 04:59PM: +3½ -101 / -3½ -109

09/12 05:03PM: +3½ -102 / -3½ -108

09/12 05:06PM: +3½ +100 / -3½ -110

09/12 05:29PM: +3½ -102 / -3½ -108

09/12 05:34PM: +3½ +100 / -3½ -110

09/12 05:40PM: +4 -108 / -4 -102

09/12 05:50PM: +4 -105 / -4 -105

09/12 05:55PM: +4 -102 / -4 -108

09/12 06:34PM: +4 +100 / -4 -110

09/12 06:49PM: +4½ -105 / -4½ -105

09/12 06:54PM: +5 -105 / -5 -105

09/12 07:00PM: +4½ -102 / -4½ -108

09/12 07:06PM: +4½ -103 / -4½ -107

09/12 07:47PM: +4½ +100 / -4½ -110

09/12 08:02PM: +4½ -102 / -4½ -108

09/12 08:03PM: +4½ +100 / -4½ -110

 

 

There is a line history for one book.
Aussieguy says:
09/12/08 11:48PM
australian books had it @ -3 early last night, iasbet had it @-2.5 for a while with the option of buying the hook @ -120. Some british books 465, and willhill had it the same and then took off the board altogether!!! 5 dimes had it @ -2 the whole time. Our TAB in Australia, had it at -3.5 for a +125 price.

As i said, stiff luck to everyone who got a push or had this at +3.5. but congrats all round to whoever got it at -2 or or -2.5.  

backdooor_cover says:
09/12/08 11:51PM
you win and i win.  What an exciting game
Weathered says:
09/12/08 11:53PM

Aussieguy thanks for the answer....but um ok...so your saying you post lines that 99% of the covers posters cant get?

 

seidelbox you wont see me posting my plays for any sports anymore...

 

phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 11:53PM
fck seidel nice pick although i got it at -4
phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 11:53PM
fck seidel nice pick although i got it at -4
phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 11:53PM
fck seidel nice pick although i got it at -4
phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 11:55PM
lol mistake there keep them coming mate
phillies0809 says:
09/12/08 11:55PM
lol mistake there keep them coming mate
Weathered says:
09/12/08 11:57PM

You understand that you lost your "wager" with USF - 4 right?

 

 

king08 says:
09/12/08 11:58PM
I got push at 3...it was right side but USF came out slow...first qtr killed us...
Aussieguy says:
09/13/08 12:01AM
no mate! In my hundreds of posts/picks there would have been about 5 which I would have gotten a better line than most you guys! As I said in Troy-Mid Tenn game for example, I got the early line at -4.5, but the line jumped at -7 by kick off! Sometimes we get a slightly better line here, but very often too, I've noticed that we get a raw deal compared to the US books! It depends on what sport and how much action the book sees!.

But to answer your question: NO! the lines i post should be gotten by every single person. I don't have some sort of a magic book that does me favours.

Cheers mate, and really bad luck if you lost this. AUSSIE

ps. I respect your posts and plays by the way ..  

backdooor_cover says:
09/13/08 12:03AM
weathered why so mad.  You been here for so long.  Most people can buy points to the spread he is listing.  In fact my site at one time had -2.5.  That was about 2 hours before kickoff and then the line started to shoot up again.
mkan20 says:
09/13/08 12:04AM
hes just telling you the lines he gets.  i dont know why theyre bs.  last night it was at -3 and most books giving you the option of taking it at -2.5 for less pay
payback says:
09/13/08 12:10AM
"Aussiguy": Hope you read this, and really wish God Bless you because this is too much, You are realy good on this, because YOU ARE PART OF ALL THIS: The organisation which

gets our hard earned money, And sometimes isnt just "money", Is part of our lifes...seriously, You must be great, and "happy" with this, but please, think about it, you are damaging people...maybe you dont realize the size of the problem that you create...I read your post and the "image" you create is what you want, but dont get God and families on this, gambling is a problem, and you are part of it, dont offer solutions and your 2 millions on 5 years...Or Do whatever you want...I just prey God for you and all the good people who follows the BAD people...

AMMO1 says:
09/13/08 12:11AM
Aussie

just getting home from a Gala of old players from my University before our game tomorrow.  as i have said in this thread earlier, I DONT POST OFTEN, but if i may say this one thing.....

Please dont let the degenrate drunks or nay-sayers do anything to run you out of this site.

We have lost way to many good cappers due to immaturity of one timers that want to bash someone for a job well done.

i got lucky and grabbed it when i liked it at 3 prior to your call.  once i saw you were on it i grabbed it again and had to buy it down.  still a push.  if i would have lost not your fault.....people need to realize that and move on.  Date of your first post was yesterday at 6 a.m. and things changed as the public bet.  thats why they call it gambling.  Most of these guys were still in bed until it was mid-night your time.  my main gripe, dont let these jerks make you leave the site.  Cheers

HappyKane says:
09/13/08 12:16AM
Wow! Nice hit.

 

Locals in California, Boston, and here in Illinois all had -5.5!

 

They must've had tons of USF action.

Aussieguy says:
09/13/08 12:22AM
This shall be my last post here regarding the '"discrepancy" of the line here. But AMM01, really alerted me to something which I was pondering on a while ago. Think TIME DIFFERENCE folks! In the land DownUnder, We're many hours ahead of you guys UpYonder.  I place my wager when it's 1am your time. By the time the game starts, some 20 hours have ticked by ...

Anyhow, this is done. Win or Loss, the deed is done. Winners celebrate and move on. Losers go pump some weights or go for a jog and move on.

Take care everyone. Sincerely AUSSIE

Weathered says:
09/13/08 12:34AM
i'm not mad....and anyone who knows me knows I am not bashing or anything...I wish you luck

 

It's just that NO book at all had - 2 or - 2.5...at any time in the united states

 

But if your betting with books that we dont use thats fine....I guess you will run into things like this from time to time

 

 

and I was on Kansas + 4.5 (you can check rush or golfandgamble's thread) so I won....

 

 

good luck mate!

Weathered says:
09/13/08 12:36AM

can i ask what site had the - 2.5

 

just wondering....i like to use alot of sites for this reason....keep my options open for finding the best lines

 

thanks

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User: Aussieguy
Joined: December 2007
Location: Australia
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