Aussieguy's Blog

Lousiana Tech @ Boise St Broncos, Aussie's Pick

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, October 01, 2008 03:47 AM   121 comments
8W-5L Record...
Gees, I dirtied myself on Tennis today breaking a sweet winning streak, but hey I am not going to win them all am I?! I'm actually thankful for a loss, because it keeps me humble and focused and not take things for granted in this business ...!
 
However, let's get to this pick cause this is where it's at today.
Finally the book makers opened the total here after what it must have been a very long hard thinking and number crunching session. They had the spreads out but they couldn't decide on the total. In fact, there still are books that don't offer a total play on this game at this point. Some books opened the spread at 19 and the total at 53! Vegas opened this at 57.5 and although early action has been on the over, the number has still come down a point and a half. Centrebet has this at 56 at the moment.
Broncos at home has become an ugly grave yard for most visiting teams, and the given spread suggest such expectation and trend to continue today. There's no doubt that Boise will be lighting up the scoreboard. I agree that L.Tech is improving every game, but I'm keeping in mind that the Bulldogs are allowing way way too many passing yards. Furthermore, they also seem to fall apart against highly ranked opponents. You just can't afford that kind of slackness against a high energy supercharged powerful offense like that of the Broncos. All trends b/w these two teams point towards one play only. Vegas LOVES the mid-week action, as many bettors are all over the games, especially during days like today where there's nothing else attractive on the board.  The high total set by Vegas  is designed to attract and lure in all the safe bettors who will be slightly intimidated  by such a large number!  It'll be a beautiful balmy night in Boise, perfect conditions, I've got my mind made up and I will thoroughly enjoy this scorefest on ESPN 
Pick: OVER 56 for a 3 Unit play
AUSSIE     
 
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121 comments
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Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 03:49AM
Hopefully me not knowing how to spell Louisiana, ain't going to have much bearing on the outcome of this wager
YAYAREACAPPER says:
10/01/08 03:51AM

ON THE OVER MYSELF. GL.

SykesSystem says:
10/01/08 03:52AM
Have been looking at parlaying the over and Boise St.

 

I like the over play, take it to the books Aussieguy,

special__k says:
10/01/08 03:58AM
BOL friend... I think it's a winner... capped it around 60 points or so... looks good.  It may drop to 55 if enough people keep banging the under.


muzza says:
10/01/08 04:00AM
Goodluck Aussie
S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/01/08 04:07AM
GL mate. And I'm from Louisiana. Took me awhile to spell it also. I just call it La. 
Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 04:12AM
Cheers SAINTS .  Good luck to us all with this one.  
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/01/08 04:13AM
BEST OF LUCK AUSSIE, I love OVERS and when you give me the green light I'm loving it more. 
Ch33z says:
10/01/08 04:25AM
yes i think this is the right play here...plus betting over makes watching the game much more fun since u want more action and scoring.
needmoney2 says:
10/01/08 04:57AM
over might be good

still thinking

Chingas says:
10/01/08 05:01AM
Sounds good.  Boise tends to go apeshit at home.
needmoney2 says:
10/01/08 05:03AM
godam that pics  Chinas Fuck BIGGG sh1t there
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/01/08 05:17AM
Chingas, Is it legal to have pics like that in China? 
ThaDrizzle77 says:
10/01/08 06:55AM
Gotta love when im on the same side as the aussie.

 

realintheville says:
10/01/08 07:20AM
Like it 
D-Town says:
10/01/08 07:41AM
Good luck Aussie. 
opadkins says:
10/01/08 08:05AM
aussie, good luck bud.  i'm going to jump in on this one when i get home tonight.  hopefully the o/u will drop a little.

 

Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 08:19AM
The total hasn't moved much at all really. It's been sitting at 56.5 with Hilton for pretty much the whole time. LVSC opened it at 53 and still sits at that mark, if you "enjoy" laying the chalk! With Australian books the total still sits at 56.

I guess it's still early in the day in the US, and the books haven't seen much action during the night. Not many wagers laid on the total so far, but at this point the majority is on the over!

Not a bad idea to sit and wait for those who haven't locked this in, as closer to kick off, the line should start fluctuating quite a bit and you can always catch it at a lower piont...

Cheers everyone and best of luck

jmw59 says:
10/01/08 08:22AM
People who live here can't spell the name of the state either.
opadkins says:
10/01/08 08:24AM
that explains a lot.  my book still doesn't have a line open.  still learning how all this works. gentlemen, thanks for the feedback, i'll see ya'll tonight.bol
drinkbeer187 says:
10/01/08 08:31AM
BOL Aussie
andreagassi6969 says:
10/01/08 08:49AM
GL Mate
realintheville says:
10/01/08 09:12AM
Chingas says:
10/01/08 09:29AM


Well Sir, if you don't tell them than neither will I. 
HotRoute says:
10/01/08 09:50AM
gl aussie, like the play
theCOBfather says:
10/01/08 10:01AM
GL
curtclaw says:
10/01/08 10:06AM
i like that over
longhornswin says:
10/01/08 10:08AM
GL, Aussie!
Gennaro53 says:
10/01/08 10:10AM
indrep says:
10/01/08 10:27AM
Aussie - I Totally agree with you. Boise State can put up 49 points without question. Can La Tech put up 10. The Answer is yes.

Boise State 51

La Tech 13

I'm all over the OVER with you.

arizonaboy says:
10/01/08 10:33AM
what part of au are u from just askin because i got siblings in  brisbane im gonna visit them after xmas/new years. Ive never been in au b4 any advice , traveling advice, etc. .maybe we can grab a brew and talk sports if your close by
Chicageaux says:
10/01/08 10:38AM
BOL to us, Aussie. I'm with ya on the over. Let's make big bikkies.

 

SAINTS,

Where are you from in La? What do you do in Vegas? I'm from NOLA and lived in Vegas for 7 years.

FixedOnes says:
10/01/08 10:39AM

      BOL  Aussie  !!!   

 

DannyMaster says:
10/01/08 11:34AM
BOL
phillies0809 says:
10/01/08 12:03PM
anyone else see when aussiguy is on front page he loses? gl im on the over with you
cloud804 says:
10/01/08 12:14PM
being losing so much lately....anybody having any advice for tonite game?.....I just hope boise and the over.....
alwaylose says:
10/01/08 12:17PM
Let go OVER
Skippy2320 says:
10/01/08 12:17PM
Over All night here.
mrmo says:
10/01/08 12:19PM
RoosterKing says:
10/01/08 12:21PM
Love it and on it Aussie, thanks!
Fathomable says:
10/01/08 12:26PM
im in, $ 4 everyone!
GeorgeCarlin says:
10/01/08 12:29PM
I think it will go over the total, but will only look under the first H. I believe it's under 28.5--couple FG attempts (maybe a miss!!), but soars way over into the 60s, esp during a ramapnt 4th qtr--could see 28 alone in the 4th qtr. Will kill under players right there.

 

Over looks good--but NOT every qtr.

carlat says:
10/01/08 12:31PM
Big hm field advantage.On it with you. Plus, the Cloud guy seems due. GL
S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/01/08 12:42PM

Hey Auss, only 27 days till we get back on the hardwood.  Looking forward to that.  

Hey Chicageaux, I'm from the NOLA area as well. Run my own biz out here in Vegas. How did you like it out here? What u doin in the Chi?
McLoving says:
10/01/08 12:50PM
dam i got it at 26.5 with my book you think it will go dowm.....ty
McLoving says:
10/01/08 12:52PM
sorry 56.5 lol wish it was 26 wow i am not thinking right today ...
richardtonsj says:
10/01/08 01:00PM
It opened at 57 with more than 80% on the over yet the line remains constant or down by half a point at 56.5.

Something isn't right but good luck with the play.  Personally I'm guessing that all games this week will go under except one.

BOl Aussie!


misterfuji says:
10/01/08 01:16PM
Chicageaux says:
10/01/08 01:24PM

 

Aussie, I'm going to the NLDS at Wrigley tonight, Any leans? This is what my local has-

LOS ANGELES N: D LOWE

+1.5

OVER 7.0

 

CHICAGO N: R DEMPSTER

-1.5

UNDER 7.0

 

SAINTS, I was born and raised in Metairie. I liked it in Vegas alot, probably too much. Had to move after I got married for obvious reasons. I dealt craps at Caesars and loved being in the action every night. Now I own my in-laws medical records company here in Chicago. That is how they got me to move here. Don't get me wrong, I love Chicago and owning our own business, but I miss the action something fierce.

mvp12331233 says:
10/01/08 01:26PM
Good luck on the over. I had the under yesterday and we always see lots of points on the SMURF TURF!!!!!
GODAWGS24 says:
10/01/08 01:38PM
GL to you Aussie definitely like the Over, also like LA Tech getting 25
GODAWGS24 says:
10/01/08 01:51PM
Meant to say I like B State giving 25, passing attack should be able to destroy LA Techs weak secondary
AChigurh says:
10/01/08 01:51PM
Aussie, You take the new clock rules into account for total points??
dinamo77 says:
10/01/08 02:03PM
CHAMPION LEAGUE today!!!! AUSIE cheers long time since i ve posted here....

LIVERPOOL-PSV EINHOVEN 1

CFR CLUJ-CHELSEA 2

ATLETICO MADRID-MARSEILLE 1

GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU!!!!

AUSSIE Basketball is just around the corner...can t wait!!!!

robbie0570 says:
10/01/08 02:56PM
you couldn't spell houston either....and that hit.

GL aussie

Robbie

derrius says:
10/01/08 02:57PM
Aussie. I'm from New Orleans and the only way I spell Louisiana is BCS Champ LSU!!!LSU!!!
Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 02:58PM
Yeah 26 days, 14 hrs and 09min to tip off ........................ but hey who's counting!

AChigurh, of course one has to take under consideration the new clock rules. Over the last 3-4 yrs there's been so much talk and discussion over the play clock extension. I believe 40/25 sec play clock will speed things up, give more consistency and flow, and add a few extra pts to the game. The down side though as far as the high scoring games are concerned, is the abrupt end to the game when ball out of bounce, vs. ball being snapped! That could take a field goal away from the final score, imo.

anyhow, we'll see how this unfold here today

ApacheM says:
10/01/08 03:01PM
 GL Kemosabe
WendysRox says:
10/01/08 03:12PM
the betting public must watch your every move, bro.

CFB

Date#TeamOpenSpreadMLTotalBet#Spread%ML%Total%Exotics%
10/01/08 303 Louisiana Tech
+24.5-110
o56.5-110 18284 52% 50% 90% 40%
8:00PM 304 Boise St. 21½ -24.5-110
u56.5-110 48% 50% 10% 60%


gamebreaker22 says:
10/01/08 03:28PM
UNDER 56.5
filipino says:
10/01/08 03:28PM
First of all i just wanna say thank you aussie guy..ive been following ur pics and made some money because of you..

Alot of people was thinking that louisiana tech is not gonna score or if ever they score its just gonna be a field goal or a touchdown....im pretty sure that boise st. is gonna win but i dont know if they will cover..LAtech is not a bad football team at all and lets not forget that this two teams belong on the same WAC division...they play each other atleast once a year and through out that time they kinda start to know the weakness of each others defense..im goin with the OVer on this one too..im not gonna be surprise if the total score reach 60 or more

Jim_Tressel says:
10/01/08 03:33PM
peace handshake only I am on the other side, hate overs with these new clock rules.

GL on your play, unless I do decide to wager on the under.
lovetogamble says:
10/01/08 03:36PM
Locked in over 56good luck everybody

 

eightyfveoIowin says:
10/01/08 04:36PM
GOOD PICK  TONIGHT  FOR SURE   12-0 LAST WEEKS PICK  ALL AR   PICK         TONIGHT  GOING WITH   BOISE ST  + O                   $100 winz   $400    tonight bet   hitting big  $1000  boise st +O      winz $4000   good luck .............................                                                                   
donthate808 says:
10/01/08 04:50PM
achigurh.. i did as a matter of fact.. Boise doesnt run the ball as much as they used too.. but they still do.. plus LA Tech is a running team.. Looking at Kellen Moore's stats, he's been completing 75% of his passes.. more time runs off the clock.. as much as i like the over seeing as Boise will probably score 30+.. i just dont bank on LA Tech scoring over 10..
Lambdas says:
10/01/08 05:09PM
i'm with you on the over aussie. good luck to us!
hayhay says:
10/01/08 05:28PM
Sorry Aussie bro, this will be one of the few times I'll be up against you. under 56.5 for me. Too many pts...
insatiable says:
10/01/08 05:56PM
Ortiz11 says:
10/01/08 06:30PM
Boise State Is 34-1HOME GAMES they are the best in the nation right now they are 3-0 they need to win this game and the rest of there games I like Boise st + Over there last game they scored 44 points the over under looks to be Strangely low I like it.

BOISE ST + OVER

S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/01/08 06:41PM

Small world bro, I grew up in Slidell and lived all around Metairie for several years. I was always up and down Veterans Blvd. LOL. Man Chicago is a cool place. A little too chilly & windy for me but has a lot going on. The action is great here but it can get old if you're in it too much. I like hanging at the sportsbooks at South Point & Green Valley for the local feel.  

However, I do head to the strip to check out the um, lady tourists.  It's a constant replenish and ya gotta love that. Ok, let me stop messing up AG's thread. 

GL to us all on the OVER!!! Yeah! 
bettiNhavocs says:
10/01/08 06:47PM
aussie the line has moved to 57.5

would u still take it

AtlFader says:
10/01/08 06:56PM
GL aussie
Parzero says:
10/01/08 07:00PM
Like the over .  I see Boise St. getting 50 themselves.
AChigurh says:
10/01/08 07:16PM
Let me get this straight Aussie,   Are you saying you think the new rules will aid overs in regards to low totals and may work against the higher numbers.  I cant get a grasp on how these rules are affecting totals.  the game flow is deffinatly faster, could notice that int he first game i thought. but less plays, less yeards, less opportunities...... By the way, thanks for answering and GL w/ the over
hard8s says:
10/01/08 07:32PM
street word on aussie is that he works for vegas and the books, i'm just sayin' what i heard.
captainkeane says:
10/01/08 07:33PM
Good Luck everyone!
caliguy42 says:
10/01/08 07:38PM
i cant pull the trigger, bsu might score 40 but can la tech get 17 with no qb
tweinber says:
10/01/08 07:41PM
Good luck with your play tonight Aussie.  Youve made me some $$ in the past few weeks. 

 

Gotta roll with the under tonight though, sorry to say.  Way too much public on this over.

WinRaces says:
10/01/08 07:48PM

Does this really mean that 90% of the public bet the over?

Is bodog the only site that is blocking exotics for this game?

 

Weathered says:
10/01/08 07:49PM
sorry Aussie but I'm on the Under 56.5 (- 103)

 

but good luck anyway 

muzza says:
10/01/08 09:38PM
Boise State winning 21-3 half time... Need 33 points in the second half.. Come on and score some touchdowns!!
captainkeane says:
10/01/08 09:41PM

I'm nervous as shit about this 2nd half.

Hopefully there is some prolific scoring going on from here on in!!

Otherwise.........

 

Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 09:51PM
this looks to be one of those games to keep us hanging on the edge of our seats right to the last second! LaTech can't get any worse, that's the good news. So hopefully they hold their freakin end of the bargain. 

Good luck everyone, Let's get the paper here .....

Cyrax says:
10/01/08 10:09PM
  
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/01/08 10:30PM
This game sure is keeping me on the edge of my seat. 
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:34PM
I agree with some of the guys on here about the new playclock,,,,,seems to be making the offenses have to few of plays.....The Clock is always running,,,it never stops.....SHIT
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:37PM
The guys falling down on the touchdown pass cost another 2 minutes of this fucking ballgame,,,,Now its 4th and goal,,,LA TECH is Terrible
Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 10:39PM
The awesome power offence of Boise St. has showed up and shining as they've been allowed so many yards, imho! However, the bullodgs are utterly pathetic. Hopefully the Broncos don't take their foot off the eccelerator, as they normally do after building such an unsurpassable lead!

Still a LONG way to go and still happy over here. However, not enjoying my stubbie anymore as I watch the clock tickin away...  

Danyule55 says:
10/01/08 10:41PM
Insanely terrible.  22 more isnt looking good.
tweinber says:
10/01/08 10:41PM
u need 3 touchdowns this quarter

Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 10:42PM
Come on let's get another 17 pt quarter here - or is that too much too ask?! Bloody hell. La Tech is terrible terrible ...
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:44PM
We need more than 17,,,we need 23 i think
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:46PM
The guy falling down fucked us,,,,then we only wouldve of needed 16 in the fourth.....LA TECH blows
Aussieguy says:
10/01/08 10:48PM
Can't even think or add anymore ....  This is brutal ....
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:49PM
The clock is always running in college now,,,,
brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:50PM
we are going to fall point short

 

brambles75 says:
10/01/08 10:51PM
we need a kickoff return for a TD

 

Danyule55 says:
10/01/08 10:53PM
The announcer loves that PAT streak.  Without it this games got nothing.   
pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:09PM
HELLO GUYS

WE NEED BIG MAGIC HERE

3 TOUCHDOWN IN 5 MINUTES

I HOPE ITS HAPPEND.........

pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:09PM
I DONT THINK SO..............ITS GOING TO HAPPEND
pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:10PM
ANY HOPE OR I GO TO SLEEP ........
pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:14PM
3 MINUTES AND 3 TOUCHDOWN
pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:14PM
EACH MINUTE 1 T.D
S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/01/08 11:14PM
It's over dude. It was over when La Tech didn't score from the 1. La Tech is pitiful and Boise St will kill the clock.

On to the next opportunity.

Let's get it!

muzza says:
10/01/08 11:14PM
Bad luck Aussie..

 

Look forward to the next one

brambles75 says:
10/01/08 11:17PM
WOW,,way Under
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/01/08 11:27PM
We'll get the next one Aussie. 
NYCOWBOY says:
10/01/08 11:30PM
A minor bump in the road for the week... Let's get at 'em tomorrow. BOL and peace out.
pragshai says:
10/01/08 11:32PM
JUST LOOK MY PARLY

FOOTBALL GAME OVER WHICH FUCKED UP

DET. TO WIN WNBA

PHILY TO WIN AND GAME UNDER IN MLB

LAD TO WIN AND GAME OVER IN MLB

200 TO MAKE 5885

WELL, NEXT TIME

Aussieguy says:
10/02/08 12:00AM

Way off....... Sorry!

Bad luck to the Over backers. Well done all the Under players.  I just never thought or imagined that LOUsiana would only manage a fg!!!!

Sorry guys. On to the next ones now!

NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/02/08 12:19AM
No need to apoligize Aussie,  we must take the good with the bad when we tail. Lately it's been more good than bad so thanks.
youessee says:
10/02/08 12:34AM
let's get them tomorrow...in baseball and ncaaf !!!
Cutback says:
10/02/08 01:05AM
Get'em tomorrow Aussie.
nostradamus12 says:
10/02/08 06:56AM
happens to the best of them aussie - look forward to the rest of the week's selections and BOL on those
Aussieguy says:
10/02/08 07:06AM

What can you do mate?! You pick up the pieces and move on. No need to dwell in the past play, whether it's a win or a loss. Needless to say, It's always discouraging losing one. You can win 10 in a row and it's all good, but you lose one or two and it feels like the whole world is crumbling to pieces. That's why one needs to keep their emotions in check and under control in this business, otherwise you're in strife. 

WILL get the next ones.

BOL to you too with the rest of the week's plays.  

 

nc1capper says:
10/02/08 08:06AM
well,,it seems UNDER was the way to go
WendysRox says:
10/02/08 10:28AM
Aussie, you're a class act, bro.  Sorry for your loss tonight.  Still anticipating your next post. 
geezrus says:
10/02/08 11:16AM
Aussie gagged the shit out of y'all. Why the hell wouldn't anyone take Boise State to cover outright? That was a gimme, just like BYU over Utah St. He sittin home laughing cause he took Boise St. to cover.
mvp12331233 says:
10/02/08 11:20AM
Lets get it back tonight!
sureloser says:
10/02/08 01:01PM
The Latech QB wants to be in the CIA or FBI. If he makes it and tries to arrest you start shooting. You will be safe.

LB's picks

South FL

Utah under

CTSportsPicks says:
10/07/08 03:03PM
Like the over tonight too. Boise might get over themselves. Tough night last night had run line in bos game and NO -3 lost both right at the end brutal. http://www.CTSportsPicks.com
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User: Aussieguy
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Location: Australia
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