Aussieguy's Blog

Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 11:49 PM   115 comments
19W-11L Record...
Before we get on with tonight's pick, let me get off my chest and say how sweet that blocked punt of Sean Morey felt!  Seriously, when was the last time you all experienced such sheer joy (if you had your hard earned on Arizona, that is) in an NFL game finish??? Wow, kudos to that Beisel-Morey last minute combo play
Let's get to our play today now: LVSC put their heads down together and came up with a 42.5 total spread. The public put their heads down simultaneously and pounded the over, thinking that MNF on ESPN automatically warrants an over play, expecting another MNSF (monday night score fest) However, My 4 Unit question here is: Why is everyone so crazy about another MNSF? Is it simply because the couch potatoes at home want to see high scoring games on tele, or are they thinking these two teams have powerful offensive units?! Yeah I am aware that D.Anderson has been holding the fort somewhat, but who has he got on the receiving end tomorrow to throw to?! There are too many uncertainties, ifs and buts for the Browns. I'm not gonna' bother to cut paste numbers here from various nfl sites, but If you're a stat lover, they're definetely very unflattering for the home team.
Just to add more woes to Cleveland, they're about to run into a brick solid Giants' defense. Burres said that he doesn't care much about what happens off the field, he's there to intercept the passes and get the job done. I also love Hixon's work in the defense too. These guys will make sure that the Browns will be in for a looooooooong night. 
Vegas opened the Browns as a TD dog, and I expect that line to be pretty accurate. It should be a close game and a hard fought encounter. NY ranks first in the offense total this season but I don't expect that stat to translate into a score fest here. In front of their vocal crowd, after a nice win last round, Cleveland is expected to play them tough, although I believe they'll come out short at the end. However I really don't care who wins this, as long as the guy in charge of the scoreboard has a night off.
Pick: UNDER 43.5 for a 4Unit Play 
Best wishes and good luck to all
AUSSIE       
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wredskins says:
10/12/08 11:51PM
Ace77 says:
10/12/08 11:51PM
Im leaning that way myself Aussie,good luck tommorrow
EddieMush says:
10/13/08 11:56PM
Damn!!  I missed the fun with everybody leaving when it is starting to get good.

 

Tough luck Aussie. Based on your past history, I know you will bounce back strong.

tweinber says:
10/14/08 08:33AM
that over officially ended my season until the playoffs.  Such a good start too and I believe it was the right play.  Maybe if Eli couldve made that last tackle we wouldve hung in there!!!  
tweinber says:
10/14/08 08:34AM
at what point with MNF being 6-0 on the over do you start laying heavy wood on the under????
Ace77 says:
10/14/08 08:44AM

What do those other MNF games have to do with the Giants/Browns? 

 

Just because those other MNF games went over it automatically means this and every other MNF game will go over

 

 

Each game is completely different

Skippy2320 says:
10/14/08 10:07AM
Lost Cash on this.
MoneyShot says:
10/14/08 10:10AM
i was on the under for the game too, good thing i hit the under for the 2nd half.

 

Next Week Aussie, we will get the Books.

 

GL mate

MoneyShot says:
10/14/08 10:11AM
i was on the under for the game too, good thing i hit the under for the 2nd half.

 

Next Week Aussie, we will get the Books.

 

GL mate

MoneyShot says:
10/14/08 10:11AM
i was on the under for the game too, good thing i hit the under for the 2nd half.

 

Next Week Aussie, we will get the Books.

 

GL mate

Jumbo28 says:
10/14/08 10:16AM
hey aussie been watching covers for about a year now never really posted as you can see , but see that you really know you stuff, been a gambler for a long time , and also been tailing you a little over the year , have said a lot of good things about you im a middle aged man not one of these young punks, so i did have the under last night , hey thats how it goes,  just wanted to say thanks for your insight
VETTEMAN says:
10/14/08 10:36AM
hey Aussie, how ya doin? yes im looking forward to your NBA totals plays. we've been ok  thanks for your thoughts,no more racing so have time for making some moolah hopefully on your NBA plays..glad to see you Mate..best regards to ya
US_American says:
10/14/08 01:04PM
Me and my buddies here in the Rockies are a fan of Aussie and have been following his picks since basketball season last year. He is by far one of the top 3 cappers in any sport that posts their picks on covers. Aussie is classy and very good at what he does. Don't bash him because he missed one like every single casual or professional gambler does around the world. Get real! He's one the best.

 

Thanks Aussie for all the green in the past year. Cheers mate!

 

WizrduvOdz says:
10/14/08 04:50PM
Aussie, tailed you on tthis one, and I'll tell you something......I'll more than likely tail you again 19-12=$
Aussieguy says:
10/14/08 05:42PM
Should have hit should have should have freakin hit! What else can I bloody say?? The FACT is, it didn't and that's what counts at the end of the day. So, for that I'm sorry. To all of us we lost 4 Units on this one. I played it big cause I really believed in this, but a little unlucky too, I was wrong. Having said that, if today was Sunday afternoon and I were to have a second chance at playing this, I WOULD DEFINTELY PLAY UNDER 43.5 no hesitation at all. I'd probably play it smaller (now that I'm a 20/20 HINDSIGHT genius, that is)

Ah, thanks everyone for your comments here, whether praising, or bashing, or dissapointment due to the loss, or whatever else, Thanks for commenting and for making it a better board. Let's keep strictly Football (or Sport) talk though, that's what the forum is all about. Hopefully, we'll be alittle luckier next time. But I swear this is a hard loss to swallow. ...

Later

AUSSIE

boha says:
10/14/08 06:19PM
Sorry to see all the carping on the board but it seems like there is almost always a few bad apples in these forums. That is why I have seen certain members of a forum go outside and start their own forum to get to a better group to discuss the right play and to post-mortem the result(s). Aussie is a good picker but I played Cleveland and the Over last night. How did I get there? Cleveland was poor to awful in the preseason and not much better in their regular season games. One 8pt. win away over Cincy and a bad showing at Baltimore. But I repeatedly heard the suggestions that some players were not in game shape. I couldn't get their play last year out of my mind and wondered what had really changed. I pretty much decided that off a bye week and at home they would ready for the Giants. In other words I felt they were a solid pick +8.5. Once the team pick was made the Over/Under choice was clear. The inept play of both teams, particularly the Giants, and some good defense at critical times prevented the Over from being met earlier. I am not much of a stats guy as I find it just distracts me from getting a feeling for the game. Probably something I should develop but I did take notice of the Giant's 3pt. OT home win over the Bengals a week before the Cleve-Cincy game. Those results minimally bolstered my Cleveland pick. Other than that I just may have been lucky enough to be right as I made no tackles nor caught any passes. Additionally, I felt that Heiden was a more than adequate replacement for Winslow and that the presence of Stallworth would keep the pressure off of Edwards. Any thoughts? BOL
indrep says:
10/14/08 09:22PM
Hi Aussie,

I may have my game of the year on Saturday October 18th. I normally never go more then 4 stars, however this game is about as strong as I've seen. You need to get it now before the line moves.

Take Florida International +8 at Troy. FIU since losing to Kansas and Iowa, FIU turned a corner by narrowly losing to South Florida, crushing Toledo at Toledo as 18 point dogs, then beating MTSU handlely.

Troy as played some good ball but now have their backup QB starting for the rest of the year.

I'm also going to take the ML on this.

Please research it Aussie, I'm really high on this one. I hope you read this before the blog expires.

tweinber says:
10/13/08 12:00AM
im on it. had a bad day in NFL and was happy to see your post. love your unders. 
risktaker says:
10/13/08 12:04AM
goood luck aussi im scare to take that under do to giants ability to score at will combine that with cleveland weak defence but u never know expect the unexpected gl
CoFred says:
10/13/08 12:23AM
Thanks Auss GL
reppendayay says:
10/13/08 12:34AM
crookedIcon says:
10/13/08 12:47AM
eventually the under has to hit in MNF, has it happened this season?... the game odds have been driven up to +9 for the browns, might make that a small play
S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/13/08 01:11AM
 Let's get it mate! 
pddy says:
10/13/08 01:11AM
its going over 50

 

AChigurh says:
10/13/08 01:25AM
Aussie.... I was going to wait to hit this one..... dont see this raising .5?
RaianSan says:
10/13/08 01:29AM
This week the Giants Offense will be a bit off and I see the Browns playing the Giants tough in this game. I'm leaning toward Browns and Under in this one.
tagsrock says:
10/13/08 01:32AM
zona and the over plus parlay woooooooooo, loving it haha.
mossyoakcamo says:
10/13/08 01:52AM

Why don't you go ahead and tell us..... why? You need not comment without reason on a pick in someone's forum. Give your reason! Or....... please stay away!

AussiePunter101 says:
10/13/08 02:08AM
GL MATE
LiquidSwords says:
10/13/08 02:23AM
blstuart says:
10/13/08 03:39AM
I think I jumped and hit my head on the ceiling when the Cardinals blocked that punt.

Lean to the under tomorrow as well. Thanks as always for the input Aussie

muzza says:
10/13/08 05:05AM
Goodluck Aussie
changxxx says:
10/13/08 05:11AM
lonetreejj says:
10/13/08 06:36AM
Nice call on the Cards yest. Aussie.  Should have never even made it to OT.

 

Still lookin at tonites matchup.  Like your take on the under.

 

  GL Tonite

 

D-Town says:
10/13/08 08:04AM
Good luck Aussie. 
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 08:04AM
AC, I think that .5 has already gone up with most books as the total now sits pretty at 44 flat. With many of these books you could even buy the hook if you wanted to avoid a push. However, as the match is more than 12 hrs away still,  I think the total will get bumped even higher. The pundits really believe that this is flying well and truly over, as 88-92% of the wagers taken thus far have been on the Over. I don't believe in 'bet against the public' phiosophy at all. In fact I think it's slightly simple and verging on moronic! I mean look at the example on Dallas last night where 96% of the public were on the Over and Over it went. I don't hear the Books cry MOOSE as many would have over here, if they'd lost their bet....   But that's a different topic altogether.

However, as I was saying I expect this to go even higher by game time. Is this a case that the public see something that I don't, or is it a case where the public gets screwed by the books yet again? I believe (or at least hope) that it's the latter. But I really think this should stay well and truly under by a TD at least. Let's hope 37 is the magic number yet again here .  To me, 43.5 or 44.5 wouldn't make much of a difference. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see. BOL with your decisions today, to you and everyone else here

ForProfit says:
10/13/08 08:04AM
Aussie, great cards play.

liking browns for this: off bye, at home, giants play an off game. I like a 38/39 for total score

HotRoute says:
10/13/08 08:07AM
gl aussie 
WoodyBootz says:
10/13/08 08:15AM
BOL Aussie, nice writeup as usual
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/13/08 08:29AM
BOL Aussie
miraclemike1 says:
10/13/08 09:08AM
Thats a good call...public is pounding the over

I expect to see a lot of running in this game...especially by the giants
err says:
10/13/08 09:27AM
good writeup bud, BOL to you Im scared to take unders in MNF it always seems to get high scoring game ... maybe just paranoia but not sure yet what to do under looks strong I have to agree
mvp12331233 says:
10/13/08 09:58AM
Thanks Aussie I was looking that way as well.

thanks

LaDaddy says:
10/13/08 10:16AM
.................gl
brillo61 says:
10/13/08 10:18AM
thanks aussie , grabbed a little this am at 44.5 and will grab a bit more later if the number creeps up a bit more

 

thnxs for your posts

julio_cat says:
10/13/08 10:36AM
GL Aussie. Public is on the over because this year is what we have had in MNF

I hope we don't see special teams or defense scoring a lot.

 

cubboy says:
10/13/08 10:38AM
aussie thanks 4 the cards that was sweet also pared the over 51 that block was huge
crtlndbb says:
10/13/08 10:39AM
Skippy2320 says:
10/13/08 10:42AM
TomBrady12 says:
10/13/08 10:44AM
gl
Louis_IV says:
10/13/08 10:57AM
Absolutely gougeous day here in Cleveland...about 80 degrees.  I think this is going to be a very high scoring affair tonight.  There is a lot on the line for the Browns and they need a win bad to even have a snoballs chance in hell of getting in the playoffs.  They will not defensively be able to hold down the Giants so points will be the key to a win.  I expect 50 in this one, but good luck.
Maestro664 says:
10/13/08 12:14PM
Aussie,

been awhile since I chimed in but I have been everpresent as I monitor from my golf cart here in Myrtle Beach.

Love the Under in this tilt, handicapping O and D says so it is the special teams play that is unprdictable and last Mon NO gave us all the sp teams we need. SO keeping the kick blocks and returns to a minimum we are cashing in on the under.

THanks for all your condor and confidence in the handicapping forums.

GOod work

Maestro out - teeing it up today at Caledonia GOlf and Fish Club nice place

Jeffro356 says:
10/13/08 12:19PM
44 is a key number in totals.  Not as important as 41 or 37, but getting 44 is important.  24-20, 27-17, 30-14, 31-13 are all possible scores where 43.5 burns you for the under.  I would wait until it hits 44 or even 44.5 then take the under.  Public should drive this up for MNF.  GL Aussie, keep up the good work!
Lambdas says:
10/13/08 12:53PM
jeffro has a very good point
steett19 says:
10/13/08 12:58PM
under is right.

43 at the open caught my eye as being too low.

there for a reason. game should stay under and break the trend of overs.
ohioshad says:
10/13/08 01:01PM
Romeo knows that browns fans are becoming unpatient with his conservative style. I think that added to anderson playing for his job(and not booos-from fans) will give clev at least 17-21 pts?

 

But you could be rt.?Good luck

TrojanTodd says:
10/13/08 01:12PM
GL
mike214 says:
10/13/08 01:27PM
rbrigner says:
10/13/08 01:28PM
i was pretty upset at that blocked field goal.   considering i took the under at 53.5!  crazy how things sort of happen when your feeling comfortable as hell after a total 14 at half.  

i like your pick for the simple reason i do not believe it will happen.  

yes it's been that kind of nfl weekend for me.
sergio1994 says:
10/13/08 01:29PM
I have the Giants as the top rated offense and Brownies as the WORST defense. This should translate into Giants scoring at-will but motivation will be on the side of the home dawg tonight. That is why the under looks good...
CalBear says:
10/13/08 01:40PM
GL Aussie I'm leaning Browns and Under here
danthemann says:
10/13/08 02:01PM
any one thinking the over and  gee men -3 was thinking score will be 31-13   or 27-13 ???????????  any help on that
special__k says:
10/13/08 02:07PM
BOL Aussie... leaning the over as well...
96chey says:
10/13/08 02:49PM
GL tonite
YouOnlyLiveOnce says:
10/13/08 03:03PM
xkgb says:
10/13/08 03:22PM
cleveland is going to put it together after a buy and a first win of

the season....shaun rogers is going to have 3 sacks...front 4 are going

to put a ton of pressure on manning, and we all know what manning plays

like under pressure....Clevelend getting+9 at home on MONDAY NIGHT?!!!!

I like a close game with browns covering, and lower scoring then

predicted...my pic is browns+9....although BROWNS+15 AND UNDER 50

SOUNDS A LOTTTTT BETTER!!!!

insatiable says:
10/13/08 03:35PM
sexyroger says:
10/13/08 03:37PM
TAKING THE UNDER 44 AT MY BOOK...

ALSO PUTTING SOME ON CLEVELAND 9

liked what you said about people going with the over on MNF... think casinos are scoring big on this one

BOL

special__k says:
10/13/08 03:40PM

Shit, I meant the under... no longer a lean... now a play.
indrep says:
10/13/08 04:19PM
Hi Aussie,

Dude, this game will be nearly over the total at halftime. The Giants are the best road team in football. They will score quickly and often to slience the crowd. Cleveland will answer some of the scores. I fully expect Brady Quinn to enter the game and engineer a couple of drives.

NYG 31

Cle 27

Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 05:02PM

Morning everyone -   Well, Just a few hours before kick off and things have slighltly evened out. This game is a classic mind game of Vegas.  I love it!! They open a certain line or a total, which at first glance looks intimidatingly quite low or high. Then the public gets carried away (or rather freaked out) and pounds the opposite of the freakish line. Hence we had over 90% last night jump on the Over, pushing the total up to 45 with some books. Then finally Late sharp money comes in for the Under from the Big Bad Boys catching it to the highest total, and balancing it back down to 42! That's where it's gonna settle now until game time I'm thinking ...  

This my friends is brilliant book movement. I read many of you talking about this and that and the Giants being a high scoring team and the Browns needing to score alot and so forth.... Remember what I always crap on about? Wagering as a Sports Fan vs. Wagering as a sports Investor It is all about the gift and the ability to read the book and to try and outsmart the line maker. (often easier said than done though) 

Now, This may or may not stay UNDER, but in my very humble opinion that is the right play in this particular game.

Now after all my loooooong winded speel watch this blow right in my face and fly well over the total  and end up some 65pts

Nah I very highly doubt it. Best of luck to everyone with whatever you have. I'm out. Wishing everyone their best ...

Cheers 

NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/13/08 05:22PM
The total has gone down from 10 hours ago.  This happens a lot to your picks Aussie,  I guess the "Big Bad Boys" must read your threads forcing the Bookies to adjust.  Good Luck to all. .
VETTEMAN says:
10/13/08 05:28PM
vegemite (love that stuff) for everyone ..oh ..and please pass the beer !
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 05:33PM
See who's back  Vetteman! Where have you been mate? I guess you're back just in time for the hard wood season eh   Hope all's well with you and your's mate. vegemite on me tonight ...... (only after this Under hits though! otherwise it's only peanut butter and jelly all around ) Later
WMB5613 says:
10/13/08 05:37PM
Starzz says:
10/13/08 05:39PM
I like the Giants in a easy one,  even on the road.  Offense will struggle for Clev without Kellen (TE).  Giants 31 -10.  Get the Doe.
weeble5672 says:
10/13/08 05:39PM
Opposite you tonight, Aussie. GL all the same.
Starzz says:
10/13/08 05:46PM
Aussie

 

What was you B-Ball record last year?

Starzz says:
10/13/08 05:47PM
 your sp/? oops  Basketball record?
LOKA says:
10/13/08 07:20PM
Re: Browns vs. Giants. Expect Eli Manning to take center stage with the return of his best receiver and boldly declare his claim to millions in advertising, like his brother, with this coming out party and rout over Cleveland on Monday Night.

Should be a thrashing of the hapless Browns, with NY running them over on the ground and humiliating the Brown's secondary which is poor at best. Take the Giants to clobber the point spread. First half is good as well. They will need to bring in Brady Quinn for the second half after getting killed in the first two quarters.

Philly215 says:
10/13/08 07:31PM
Under 43.5 and Clev +9

GL

Megamaniak says:
10/13/08 08:11PM
Fade Philly, love the OVER, dipshit knows nothing.
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 09:11PM

Couldn't have asked a better start really  All I wanted to see was the Browns play them tough, and that's what they've done! 1Q according to script  

Interception is the name of the game tonight ......

Hopefully they keep this going. It's a looooooooooooong way to go yet........ Great game though  

PaintitPurple says:
10/13/08 09:12PM
Nice to see at least one good capper on the right side here, majority of Covers on over makes me laugh.

 

MIB

Leo7919 says:
10/13/08 09:15PM
mate
Danyule55 says:
10/13/08 09:27PM
Hhhmmmmm. Braylon Edwards has already doubled his season totals.  No more of that please.
Consilience says:
10/13/08 09:30PM

You must have a crystal ball...Not even half time and you claim to know this game stays under

 

Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 09:34PM
Yeah crazy start to the 2nd. Obviously Not all lost but not ideal by no means. Hopefully we survive this 2ndQ onslaught and it should start settling back to normal after that.   ....     
phillies0809 says:
10/13/08 09:45PM
 
XhuegoX says:
10/13/08 09:48PM

 

10-7 at half would be ideal

willydollas says:
10/13/08 09:51PM
gonna be right around the number i think

 

phillies0809 says:
10/13/08 09:53PM
now what aussie?

 

phillies0809 says:
10/13/08 10:05PM
fuck my ass
brambles75 says:
10/13/08 10:14PM
WOW,,,,another High Scoring Monday Night Game,,,
GotDaRoc says:
10/13/08 10:19PM
Sup Aussie- Looks like we'll have to sweat this one out Bro. Bol to you and all your future plays. Nba right around the corner my friend. I see us continuing to damage them books this season.

 

Hey phillies0809 what's your problem Scumbag. Did you follow someone's play and it didn't go the way you had expected it too? That is why this is a business. No-one told you to follow. Aren't you old enough to make your own decisions? Maybe it's past your bedtime. Get out of here ScumBag.

 

Sorry Aussie- I hate Pigeons that are Idiots. BOL Brother!!!

 

Roc

athleticsfann says:
10/13/08 10:21PM
Pick sucks.........ALL OVER the OVER..............
athleticsfann says:
10/13/08 10:23PM
When was the last time the BROWNS HAD WON A GAME........& NOW there playing on MONDAY NITE. Where do u get your CAPPIN' from A.........
phillies0809 says:
10/13/08 10:31PM
i been in the game longer than you got.Also make more money then you.that wasn't directed toward anyone so go fuck yourself
phillies0809 says:
10/13/08 10:38PM
talk is cheap on the net i would lay you on your back
Rodneysum says:
10/13/08 10:40PM
phillies0809 THAT DaRoc is another Aussieguy account.
Danyule55 says:
10/13/08 10:55PM
I would love to see a Turnover!
CoFred says:
10/13/08 10:56PM
Guys chill out. Aussie is a proven winner. Stop being little kids and lets make some money. I doubt Aussie has a second account so he can cause trouble. Lets get back to the sports.
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 10:57PM
Got to love these pathetic low life losers with 9 posts behind their computer screens. God bless you my friend.  
Rodneysum says:
10/13/08 10:57PM
HMMM, ANOTHER POSTER WITH SEPTEMBER REGISTRATION AND UNDER 20 POSTS
GotDaRoc says:
10/13/08 10:59PM
Are you Kidding me? Hey Rod where your play's posted at? Like I said this is a business get the hell out of here! Go play with your Monopoly money living your Fantasy World. I have yet to see Aussie brag ever. Who is this Joker? Phillie your right talk is cheap being an internet tough guy.
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 11:02PM
 You are a champ. One more thing, if you've got some spare time, they'd love to have a serious investigator like your pretty self, to find out if there are any more WOMD in Iraq!

And as I type to the chubby fella, the Browns pile on the pts. 

Looking very grim now .....  

Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 11:04PM
GotDa, g'day mate. Yes, NBA is around the corner, Looking fwd to that very much. But pretty cut that we're about to lose this one .... 

 

 

Danyule55 says:
10/13/08 11:06PM
If you told me two quarters would only have scored 3 points each I would feel pretty solid.  oh well   .
special__k says:
10/13/08 11:06PM
Defense my friend... stop the g-men, Cleveland takes time off the clock... Jamal Lewis and co. are able to run the ball tonight.  Crennel will be conservative on offense up two scores.  It can happen.  Eli has that look from two years ago on his face.
err says:
10/13/08 11:08PM
why all these bashers now... Saturday it was against rush and now Aussie......... I really thought gambling were for adults only I guess I was wrong.

Fuck the haters Aussie
BigEv617 says:
10/13/08 11:17PM
rodneyasum2, u have 3 posts total.  grow up.

you're the man aussie, this guys a puss
Danyule55 says:
10/13/08 11:19PM
So.... I cant post becuase i havent done it before?  Why are you even talking to me?
Aussieguy says:
10/13/08 11:20PM
 Well done to the over backers. It's even more painful to lose this, when you have 2Quarters with 3 pts each. Arghh, what can you do.  Bloody painful loss really. 

Anyway, Good luck with your plays everyone.  Cheers

GotDaRoc says:
10/13/08 11:28PM
Aus- I understand you can't win um all. There's always tomorrow to make more paper. Great to hear from you and all the true Players BOL you know who you are. These Jokers are jealous but better yet BROKE!!  
crookedIcon says:
10/13/08 11:39PM
aus ur still well up over the last month, so no need to worry... but damn, this play looked great after the first quarter... and just ignore the bashers, probably the same guy just crying for attention
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