Aussieguy's Blog

AUSSIE'S NFL SUNDAY THREESOME

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, October 19, 2008 01:37 AM   63 comments
1- San Diego @ Buffalo
Did we all just witness the demise of the Bills?
Yeah, that's my big question for week 7: To rephrase it, Did week 5 produce the first of the many more to come losses for the Buffalo Bills - or was that just a slight bump on a very smooth path for them??? I really don't have the answer to my question, but I thought the Cardinals really smoked the Bills that week, exploiting some real vulenerable defense, which had not been exposed prior to that ugly loss (during their 4-0 run, they only surrendered 15 pts PG, before being given a free clinic by Arizona's offense) Not good news at all for the Bills! The only positive is that they now play in front of a home crowd who've been 'football-fasting' for a couple of weeks, and who'll be real hungry now to cheer their beloved team home to a victory after a bye-week.
Nevertheless, what worries me about the Chargers is that they come in to this encounter after a serious blow out win, and this is a perfect spot for a let down for them. Also adding to my concern is the fact that S. Diego isn't a very reliable team when they're tourists....
The good news for S.Diego however, is that they somehow know how to notch up a W when playing the Bills.  Quite a few ifs and buts about this game, and that's why I have decided to only make a half time play here. Personally, I believe SD is a better team with alot of momentum and should carry that over in the first half. However, I am not sure if they'll be able to finish the job here....
 
Pick: SAN DIEGO Chargers to WIN FIRST HALF at pk, for 2 Units
 
2- New Orleans @ Carolina
Vegas opened the Panthers as 5 pts favourite, but the public has eased them down to 3 at the moment, as over 70% of the public action is on the Saints. But I am somehow confused and suprised by the lack of love that's been shown to the Panthers especially in front of their vocal home crowd! Why so much love for the Saints??? Is it due to that amazing blow out win last week? I don't know. Probably it is....
Whatever the case, the Panthers are very good at home, whereas N.Orleans are pathetic on the road. Carolina has some decent size that should be able to get on top of the "little" Saints. Look for JD to rescue his name and his team in this game, after an awful performance last week.
Another Half Time bet here, as I think it's a brilliant opportunity to make some sweet cash. It's virtually at PickEm, ..... I mean, it's -1, but if they don't lose than it's a push, or a clear winner! You following me??
 
Pick: CAROLINA -1 to Win first Half ONLY for a 4 unit play
 
3- PITTSBURGH @ Cincinnati
I really wish I had caught this when it was 3 pts higher, but the total here came down even faster than Brittney's undies! Las Vegas books opened this at 37.5 and furious money came flooding in on the Under, and now it can only be gotten at 34.5! Damn low isn't it? But I have had my eye on this play since Monday last week, and I am pulling the trigger nontheless.
The Bengals are backed up right against the wall, and are hoping to make at least a contest of this one. Cincy has Palmer still out of action and Fitzpatrick has been bloody awful. I don't think he'll be shining against a solid Pitt defense either.  Therefore I am hoping (and wishing, more to the point) to see a Baseball type of a score in this encounter of two cripled and offensively challenged teams
 
Pick: UNDER 34.5 for 2 Units
 
Good luck to ALL
AUSSIE    
 
  
63 comments
comment Post A Comment
duy65 says:
10/19/08 01:42AM
amd says:
10/19/08 01:44AM
Good Luck Auss......I like two of the three but I don't like taking the Chargers playing a 10:00 game, pacific time, especially taking the first half. Looks like you have yourself another winning week, keep up the good work
Trillz says:
10/19/08 01:45AM
when will the hot streak end!?
Aussieguy says:
10/19/08 01:50AM
hopefully only after I stop sports' wagering
Trillz says:
10/19/08 01:53AM
^ lol
hey idk about ur 3rd pikc the under on cincy pitts.... i think pitts wins big time here like 35-10...im surprised its at 35
Jammer11 says:
10/19/08 01:59AM
Good Luck Aussie!!!! Thanks for your insight, on all three!!!
PocketJacks says:
10/19/08 02:04AM

What leads you to believe that Pitt scores 35 in this one?

 

 

Has their O shown you anything that suggests they get into the 30's?

Ortiz11 says:
10/19/08 02:05AM
Hey Aussie What do you thnik about my 10 Pick Parlay for $40 210-1

I might change Broncos pick because Patriots are finally AT home Dotn know yet/>?

Chargers   PK

Steelers    -9.5

Cowboys   -6.5

Niners       +10.5                        

Texans      -9.5

Colts         -1

Buccs       -10.5

Vikings      +3

Chiefs        +9

Phins         -3

Saints        +3

Oakland     +3

Browns      +7.5

Broncos     +3 

LiquidSwords says:
10/19/08 02:06AM
crookedIcon says:
10/19/08 02:06AM
betfair still has the cincy/pitt under at 37.5 but at a significantly lower price, 1.74... i like your last two plays, your first one is questionable but then again, most times when i doubt your pick u win, so i guess it looks like a winner
muzza says:
10/19/08 02:08AM
Goodluck Aussie.. I think Buffalo should be too good for the Charges.. LT just doesn't seem to be the LT he used to be.. Also I mentioned in my thread that San Diego have to travel from the west coast to the east coast so I would expect them to come slow out of the blocks.. I've got Buffalo for full time so its O.K if SD are winning at half time and Buffalo win at full time

 

Like the Carolina play and also the Pitts/Cin Unders..

 

As always, Best of luck Aussie and thanks for sharing your picks

jmaydc says:
10/19/08 02:13AM


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
cha-ching
mixnuts says:
10/19/08 02:26AM
Hey Aussie, long time, seems like your doing well according to your followers here, thats good. I'm giving my 2 cents because 2 of the plays you have here I'll be betting, 1st. the Under cincy/Pitt actually 72% of Public bets (3 main US Offshore) are betting the over Line Did Drop, tells me the sharps are on the Under to move that number down,(I Will Buy Points) However, may also be "Steam" so need to make sure line dosn't go up right before Kick, if it dose by 1.5 or more then Over it will most likely be, in that case for me, No Play. 2nd. play. BILLS/SD same thing, yes, public bets on SD line moved in reverse, = Smart $ On Bills. Not sure about the 1st 1/2 you could be correct, bills down at the 1/2 then they come out 2nd half at home fired up, (Hope Their Not Down To Much) LAst, Panthers also good, you get my point. P/S Smart Money Moves have been much more profitable in College Football. BOL to All...
mixnuts says:
10/19/08 02:29AM
10 teamer I'll take that action, and pay you more...

 

Alot of them do seem good, wh not, take a shot.

Just hope you play some stright.

Aussieguy says:
10/19/08 02:52AM
G'day mix. I always love reading your "2 cents" mate. Yes you've got a very accurate reading of the books on that Pitt game. Well done. Correct, Smart money has been pounding the Under, so much so, that it has even counteracted the public's huge percentile on the other side!

It's very good and very healthy to be aware of these line movements, but honestly, it doesn't mean a whole lot to me really. Yes, the sharp plays are smart plays quite often, but by the same token they do lose alot of the time. Hopefully, this time the sharps are on my side I'm hoping ...

Best of luck with your plays buddy and hope you hit.

Ortiz, sorry mate not a parlay kinda' guy, I find them somewhat "overwhelming" But will keep an eye on your multi and will root all the way for it to hit.

Muzza hopefully we both hit the SD game H/T vs. F/T

I'm out. Cheers guys and good luck with your plays to us ALL

  

NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/19/08 03:01AM
Thanks Aussie for the picks,  Best of Luck to us.  Appreciate your reply on the College games I asked you on your Space Page. 
mavinhtrinh0223 says:
10/19/08 03:09AM
what do you think about hou +9 and det?
Portis88 says:
10/19/08 03:13AM
good luck on San Diego 1st half. Might be tough for the west coast team to come out playing well in the first half  on the east coast. might be a sluggish start.

 

Ortiz11 says:
10/19/08 04:31AM
FINAL CARD

GOODLUCK

 

 

NFL PICKS   GOODLUCKENJOY

 

Chargers   PK

Steelers    -9.5

Cowboys   -6.5

Niners       +10.5                        

Texans      -9.5

Colts         -1

Buccs       -10.5

Vikings      +3

Chiefs        +9

Ravens       +3   The Miami Dolphins are obviously greatly improved this season, but the Baltimore Ravens have not forgotten that they were the only victims during the 1-15 season the Dolphins had a year ago, so some payback is in order here. Besides, do not lose sight of the fact that the Dolphins were able to beat the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers and almost beat the Houston Texans because their running game was very successful. The problem is that all three of those defenses are in the bottom half of the NFL vs. the run, while these Ravens have the best run defense in the league. Thus, look for both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to struggle here, and Chad Pennington does not scare any defense if called upon to win games on his own. It also does not help that Baltimore will be in an ornery mood after getting shredded by Payton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts last week. Also, do not forget that the offensive coordinator of the Ravens is Cam Cameron, who will be looking for a different sort of revenge after getting fired as the head coach of the Dolphins after just one year once Bill Parcells took over as general manager this past off-season. Granted, Baltimore has struggled in recent weeks while quarterback Joey Flacco has regressed, but we expect some improvement this week as Cameron should have a good idea of what the Miami defense wants to do. Besides, the Ravens would have scored more points vs. the Colts if not for turnovers, and that is a problem that should be fixable. Look for a minor upset.

Saints        +3

Oakland     +3

Browns      +7.5

Broncos     +3   

 

THANKS AUSSIE

                               GOODLUCK

sonoras says:
10/19/08 04:51AM
i like the over at cincy, big ben is gonna have a good day, i suggest you take second look at you pick aussie.

other than that i agree with you, and will still follow you on most of your picks, keep it going

 

GLA

dcowboys says:
10/19/08 05:05AM
already played bills first half.

gl

soup_kitchen says:
10/19/08 06:25AM
sunday is a great day for a threesome

 

best of luck aussie, you are the man

hoping the chargers can also keep it going in the 2nd half

 

love your plays, might just have a lazy parlay on the 3 of them

rod_steel says:
10/19/08 06:35AM
SweetPapi2 says:
10/19/08 07:56AM
Good Luck IMHO, your going to go 3-0............
123 says:
10/19/08 07:59AM
DWinner says:
10/19/08 08:26AM
ApacheM says:
10/19/08 08:52AM
 GL Kemosabe
mikenice says:
10/19/08 09:01AM
Fathomable says:
10/19/08 09:03AM
bluehorseshoe68 says:
10/19/08 09:07AM
Aussie do you like Murray laying the wood
indrep says:
10/19/08 09:13AM
PODs

**Vikings +3 1/2

****Min/Chi over 37.5 - Chicago is very thin in the secondary. Ferotte should be able to have success there today. This also will give Adrian Peterson more room to run as the pass has to be respected. Hey, I know the Vikes suck at pass offense, but against a thin Bears secondary they should get theirs. The Bears in response will have to take more chances on offense which should yeild them more points.

Vikings 27 Bears 24

GimmieTheCash says:
10/19/08 09:15AM
Aussie, Nice Picks once again.

I'm all over San Diego. Thank fully it is a 10am game Pacific time, the only reason it is a pick'em.

Even with a let down after last week, should easily handle the Bills.

Only the Special teams for the Bills can hurt San Diego.

cubboy says:
10/19/08 09:48AM
aussie i cant bet halves should i take charger and panther whole game for small play
lovetogamble says:
10/19/08 09:51AM
Good luck
mike214 says:
10/19/08 10:04AM
gl aussie   
panteraa says:
10/19/08 10:19AM
aussie, haven t been on this site that long about 6 months, and there no question about it your one of , if not the best on this site---imo , when i read your opinions i really have to question myself when your picking against one of my picks--------- i was taking the saints to win, so i got to make a decesion between your pick which are right nore often and mine, i like the saints because i think they are starting to roll with a better quaterback plus there starting to get healthy. besides from straight beting, i m also in my local bar pool so every point counts.decisions , decisions life is full of them, the best to ya oh by the way i agree with your other 2 picks.
panteraa says:
10/19/08 10:36AM
aussie; the hell with it i m taking the saints and the points, the best to ya though.
weeble5672 says:
10/19/08 10:42AM
GL Aussie
Golferman says:
10/19/08 10:48AM

BOL today Aussie.

You may want to recheck your numbers, info on that Carolina pick. This Saints team lost its only 2 road games this year by 5 points to Washington ( when no one thought Wash was very good) and by 2 points in a shoot out with Denver. Saints defense was not playing very well in those early games (secondary) and granted is still not a juggernaut but has improved each game this year. They have possibly the best offense in the NFL, definitely the hottest QB and love a shoot out. Also and very important in this matchup, the road team is 14-2 ATS. I do not believe Carolina can keep up with the Saints this year, as the Saints will come in with the throttle at wide open for this game, as it is a rivalry game as well.

Again BOL today on your picks, just thought you might want some more food for thought.

robbie0570 says:
10/19/08 10:56AM
GL AUSSIEGUY

LIKE THE CARD...

R

surferjohn says:
10/19/08 10:57AM

GLAussie

dencol says:
10/19/08 11:26AM
STAY OFF THE CHARGERS
drinkbeer187 says:
10/19/08 11:40AM
BOL AG
PaintitPurple says:
10/19/08 11:48AM
I always love your plays but I said it a few weeks ago that I will NEVER bet on San Diago in the 1H..... They have been a 2H team all year so far.
insatiable says:
10/19/08 11:50AM
GL Bud
bloodypeach says:
10/19/08 12:39PM
I love the pick Aussie!

GL and lets bring home the paper!

blstuart says:
10/19/08 01:04PM
Hate being against you Aussie, but got the Bills +3 from a local. I can't ever pass them up as a fg or more dog in Orchard Park. Thanks for all the work you put in, You're an asset to this site and we appreciate it. GL
Emcee_CHi says:
10/19/08 01:09PM
Go0d LuCk AussieGuy!!!




-Emcee CHi-


Aussieguy says:
10/19/08 01:31PM
No power????!!!!!!!!!

What year is this? Do they have running water in Buffalo?  Has the brutality of Wall St. really affected the state this much  

Cyrax says:
10/19/08 01:33PM
GL Aussie
jcpsaints says:
10/19/08 01:58PM
Jammer11 says:
10/19/08 02:27PM
nice call on Carolina Aussie!!!!!
cubboy says:
10/19/08 02:32PM
bungals just scored have the under 37 aussie nice call on panthers couldnt bet half but took them -3 for the game you like anything this afternoon
Aussieguy says:
10/19/08 02:32PM
Yeah

CAROLINA -1

S.DIEGO

the BIG play shows us the sweet cash, but SD doesn't deliver at all. Hopefully the scoring dries up in Cinci . That last minute TD hurt us a little. Would have been nice to have gone into the break with only 10pts total.

Anyway Not a bad start to the day really

Best of luck with the rest of your plays fellas

Jammer11 says:
10/19/08 03:21PM
nice call on Carolina Aussie!!
SacTown1 says:
10/19/08 03:27PM
Give us one more play for today Aussie!!!!!!
cubboy says:
10/19/08 03:49PM
need a pick aussie
cubboy says:
10/19/08 03:50PM
steelers go over help
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/19/08 05:12PM
Well kinda of even today.  Good call for the 4 units in the Panthers game. 
Aussieguy says:
10/19/08 05:28PM
Yeah not good really. Winning 4 losing 4 doesn't really cut it. Losing the juice ..

 

For those interested I am making one more play today - Check the MLB forum. Hopefully we finish up on the day.  

mixnuts says:
10/19/08 05:30PM
Hey Aussie, 1st. off yes No Ones Wins All The Time, As Long As There Is Profit, at the end of the day and week, thats what matters. Recapp. Bills for the game as I stated was where the smart$$ was, Winner. Pathers samething, as for the Under Cincy, as I said IF that total jumps by a point point 1/2 Most likely it was a steam to move line down then bank the Over, so for me that become simply a No Play, However, If the total would have stayed the same, or lower I would have played that Under (after buying it back up a bit) I know It's lots of work, watching all this but any job to earn income must work. So, Bills Panthers, profit. May take the rest for the day or week off now. For folks that are looking at the late game Seattle, tough, 1st Total seems on the money, but with replacement QB's I'd lean with Under, and Tampa Should Only be an eight 8 point Fav. Not 11 I''d back Seattle plus11 I do suspect line to drop to 9.5 -10 right befor Kick, Then one will know Seattle is the "Right Side". WOW your follows just Love To Play, if you guys made a profit, why not rest on it, take time off. Study why Panthers were a good play, not gussing, it's about that situation,that happends a lot and when it dos thats when someone should play, Now the BILLS was the same situation, (Line Opened Bills the Dog) Public on SD line move to pick, Big Sharp Money on Bills, They Win)susprised you Aussie didn't see that, I did mention here, If not follow smart $, whatelse is there to follow, esp if my computer system (or ones system) confirms it... but do you see what they did with that Cincy total, did you noticed went up 2pts before kick, "they" hit under only to move the line lower then play tripple amount on Over, ("How Do They Know" lol) "Steam Baby Steam", That's why I said WATCH that line (TOTAL), they manipulated it and WON as for winning all the time (No One Dos) your right, no one Wins all the time, but way more then J.P. Anyway, it's all good, as long as there is profit, don't matter which games were played. However, Without following the "Market" along with a sound system, I don't know how anyone can turn a profit in this business. and if ones dos profit, just being a fan/sports gugu (tends, etc)I have the most respect for that person. Plus Pro's are still tough. College So, So Easy, esp the Totals. I quess thats why the limmits are so much lower too. BOL
boha says:
10/20/08 02:58AM
Ortiz11, hope you didn't actually place those picks or if you did for small amounts only. LOL
HMoney says:
10/20/08 08:31PM
I blame Trillz never ever mention another players hot streak..

Aussie mate: I didn't read this forum until today BUT I also lost on SD 1st hlf and the Under Pitt (21 pts in the 4th Q). Thought they were good picks. I had a bad weekend. Losing on NOrl/carolina OVR (NOrl only scores 7 pts!) and Minn +3.5 Only hit on Oak (I thought they were going to choke it somehow) and GBayOVR 2-4-1 Pushed TBay bought the half to -10 Damn Seattle scores backdoor TD.

I'm on Denv +3.5 tonight. We'll get them next week

Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement