Aussieguy's Blog

Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 27, 2008 07:24 AM   84 comments
23W-15L YTD
Has the MNF Under draught been broken yet?! Well you wouldn't think so when the MNF Over sits so pretty at 8-0-1 this NFL season!!!!!! Therefore, would I be way too stupid to take a stab at the Under here???? Or is it more like a sucidial case, where one is stabbing his own self by taking this Under?!
Whatever the case, all i know is that Tennessee boast the stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points during their last six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, where they've given up just 268.5 yards per game (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).
I also find it quite interesting that over 84% of the bets taken so far have been on the under, yet the total hasn't budged at all. I don't think it'll move much either. ...  Sharp money has been on the under
Pick: UNDER 40.5 for a 2.5 Unit play
 Good luck
AUSSIE

 

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BiggDogg5n2 says:
10/27/08 07:26AM
BOL tonight....
soup_kitchen says:
10/27/08 07:39AM
I'm on

 

keep up the good work aussie

AMMO1 says:
10/27/08 07:50AM
soup_kitchen says:
10/27/08 08:01AM
parlayed the under with Querrey to beat the pizza muncher bagdadis in the tennis
AussiePunter101 says:
10/27/08 08:15AM
GL MATE
blaineg says:
10/27/08 08:25AM
GL I have the nuder as well
blaineg says:
10/27/08 08:28AM
under

lonetreejj says:
10/27/08 08:35AM
Hey Auss,

 

Actually line opened at 42 at Pinnacle and a couple others. Down to 40 now. I show 78% on Over (80% 1st Half on Over)...

 

Texans do have the stingy D.... and on the flip side, their O is all about the ground game. I foresee lots of Colts in the box, blitzing "thru" the runnin backs and applying bu-ku pressure on Collins (who isnt exactly mobile or accurate.)

 

Under is a solid cap, and a good call for tonite. That being said...   and..... Under .... cause a little luck or divine intervention cant do no harm.

 

Neef says:
10/27/08 08:38AM


Titans you mean sir?
realintheville says:
10/27/08 09:15AM
bol
lonetreejj says:
10/27/08 09:38AM
Yes Neef.... Titans

 

early mornin grogs got me.

mikenice says:
10/27/08 09:49AM
D-Town says:
10/27/08 10:23AM
Good luck Aussie. 
wasabitobiko says:
10/27/08 11:36AM


You sure you don't mean over 84% on the OVER?..  That's what I'm reading.. and the line opened at 42 and has moved south to 40..

That would support fading the public Auss..



S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/27/08 11:54AM
GL 2nite mate, this has been a tough game to cap
drinkbeer187 says:
10/27/08 11:57AM
BOL AG
HotRoute says:
10/27/08 11:59AM
gl aussie
SuicideKings says:
10/27/08 12:30PM
These guys have a point.  According to Vegas Insider/Sportsbook.com is looks like the O/U opened at 41.5 and is at 40 currently. Looks like the public is at 87% on the OVER. 

 

 

Week 8 Monday Oct 27, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Record Line Betting Trend
Teams 225 Indianapolis Colts (3-3) (2-1 A)  L-1   41.5   40.0   38%   81%   87% 
226 Tennessee Titans (6-0) (3-0 H)  W-6   -4.0   -4.0   62%   19%   13% 
  Analysis  ·  Line Movements  ·  BT Movements  ·  Weather  ·  Injuries  ·  Player News  · Picks

 

 

SuicideKings says:
10/27/08 12:32PM

It cut off the end. Let me try again.

Week 8 Monday Oct 27, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Record Line Betting Trend
Teams 225 Indianapolis Colts (3-3) (2-1 A)  L-1   41.5   40.0   38%   81%   87% 
226 Tennessee Titans (6-0) (3-0 H)  W-6   -4.0   -4.0   62%   19%   13% 
  Analysis  ·  Line Movements  ·  BT Movements  ·  Weather  ·  Injuries  ·  Player News  · Picks

 
SuicideKings says:
10/27/08 12:34PM
Did it again! Sorry!

Supposed to be Betting Trend O 87%, U 13%

 

 

BTW, any thought on a 1H line?

Thanks BOL!

LiquidSwords says:
10/27/08 12:45PM
Bobup says:
10/27/08 12:50PM
Gonna hope titans D scores some and takin the over
mike214 says:
10/27/08 01:50PM
DawgHollywood says:
10/27/08 01:58PM
I'm with ya Aussie...Think that push last week breaks ground on the over streak. UNDER she is..GLuck

 

Titans 20

Colts  17

Jon100 says:
10/27/08 02:06PM
GL AussieGuy
weeble5672 says:
10/27/08 03:49PM
GL Aussie
backdooor_cover says:
10/27/08 04:00PM
love the pick here.  Also looking to take indy ML
SportsFreak69 says:
10/27/08 04:04PM
GL 
jpurewal says:
10/27/08 04:06PM
Tailing you as always Aussie, great pick on putting 6 units on Seattle +5.5 yesterday
Aussieguy says:
10/27/08 05:04PM
You're perfectly correct mate. My bad. That should read 84% on the over, rather than under. Just my typo.
longhornswin says:
10/27/08 05:07PM
BOL, Aussie  
NYCOWBOY says:
10/27/08 05:12PM
Nice pick on SEA yesterday, unfortunately, I missed it. Bad week for me overall but it's time to right the ship. GL tonight - w/ ya on the under.
UNCforever says:
10/27/08 05:23PM
Under 40.5
VETTEMAN says:
10/27/08 05:27PM
yo Aussie how ya doin? hope your getting ready for NBA you were on fire last season on totals,,wishing you the best ..denny
Lucky117 says:
10/27/08 05:36PM
uscnumber1 says:
10/27/08 05:38PM
BOL tonight Aussie. I am on the under too
SONNYtyson says:
10/27/08 05:40PM
BOL...still on fence, if indy wins they need to score 30,,tenn wins def an under..,,,,,,
pipedoctor says:
10/27/08 05:41PM
 Manning on MNF = OVER
jimmysalas says:
10/27/08 05:53PM
I'm confused here, if it opened at 42 and people are slamming the over, would that not mean that the line would go up and not down. Is this one of those cases of reverse line movement.

 

You have the mojority of people on one side but wise guys make plays the other way and since they have bigger bets they cause the line movement. I the line goes back up to 42 or close to it I will be all over the under if not just teasing TENN and the Under by 7

chicoceaze says:
10/27/08 05:58PM
colts +4
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/27/08 06:10PM
Good luck Aussie. 
phillies0809 says:
10/27/08 06:16PM
Your the man Aussie! Thanks

 

 

                                                    

phillies0809 says:
10/27/08 06:17PM
Can't believe i missed the 6 unit           
AChigurh says:
10/27/08 06:23PM
Lets get this tonight Aussie. Under for 2 units. Teased colts +10.5 with under 47 for 1 unit. Lets hope the law of averages cathes up with the these Monday night totals
special__k says:
10/27/08 06:39PM
freebet123 says:
10/27/08 06:42PM
vinspix says:
10/27/08 06:42PM
excellant handicapper
AtlFader says:
10/27/08 07:14PM
Aussieguy says:
10/27/08 07:20PM

I'm confused here, if it opened at 42 and people are slamming the over, would that not mean that the line would go up and not down. Is this one of those cases of reverse line movement.....

That's where public consensus and Sharp Syndicates collide. Their money keeps this number down.

AC yeah you can't be anymore correct about the law of averages coming into effect here. I'm hoping the push last week was the beginning of another trend. Hopefully it goes one better this week, but I also appreciate pipedoctor's post where he mentioned Manning MNF=Over! It's a valid point for sure and I've taken into consideration.

This is just a "couldn't resist" wager, as we count down 24 more hrs. There'll be a couple of picks in the Pick 'n' Roll section tomorrow.

Good luck everyone and let's hope this baby stays well and truly UNDER   

Chingas says:
10/27/08 07:22PM
I'm soo tempted to take this as well.  Maybe I can talk myself into it.  GL
cubboy says:
10/27/08 07:31PM
aussie vanden bosch is out for tenn defense key player?
cubboy says:
10/27/08 07:33PM
my guy has it at 41 1/2
UNDER_DAWG1 says:
10/27/08 07:37PM
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/27/08 07:38PM


Why are you pushing this product on this thread?  If you believe in this product so much why not start your thread and list your first 81 plays, if you hit 80 then I'm sure people will buy it.  If you are guaranteeing money back why not but it to the test here on Covers??????
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/27/08 07:39PM
meant "put"
Chingas says:
10/27/08 07:42PM
Yeah,  talked myself into it.  Indy will have more trouble than people think tonight and the Titans will grind away on the ground.  Worth a shot.  U 42 -115 to win 1Unit.


generalgiap says:
10/27/08 07:43PM
take the OVEEEEEEEEEEERRR.......
BigEastExpert says:
10/27/08 07:43PM
GL Aussie.  Under is always a solid play with Tenn.
fritz218 says:
10/27/08 07:49PM


Wouldn't that mean that Vegas and offshore books like where they sit??If smart money is on the undera nd the line hasn't budged don't you think books are in trouble unless they try to balance it more?
LuvParlays says:
10/27/08 07:49PM
I'm with you on the Under Aussie. Thanks for the SEA pick yesterday! BOL to you bud!
Spaz199 says:
10/27/08 07:53PM
Under 42 here, gl to you Aussie.
aNTsKiLLz says:
10/27/08 08:02PM
 BOL
jake21s says:
10/27/08 08:05PM
muzza says:
10/27/08 08:14PM
Goodluck Aussie
RedStormSports says:
10/27/08 08:15PM

But it already is balanced with the public money
vetdrm says:
10/27/08 08:22PM
I see more points tonight.  44-47

Good luck rest of the way
buyubengal says:
10/27/08 08:31PM
Good luck brother I like it as well I am tailing may parlay with the colts.glta
Emcee_CHi says:
10/27/08 08:32PM
Go0d LuCk 2nite AussieGuy!



-Emcee CHi-


cubboy says:
10/27/08 09:01PM
bol aussie
kltrd007 says:
10/27/08 09:10PM
Gluck Aussie
Cyrax says:
10/27/08 09:11PM
GL Aussie
cubboy says:
10/27/08 09:27PM
think this one is going over
cubboy says:
10/27/08 09:34PM
cubboy says:
10/27/08 09:52PM
aussie could you add me to your friend list
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/27/08 09:57PM


Have some faith dude, still got many points to play with.
da_kid says:
10/27/08 10:08PM
About as good of a first half as we could have expected. Let's keep it under.
captainkeane says:
10/27/08 11:16PM

14 - 17 in the last....... this one is going to go down to the wire!

Aussieguy says:
10/27/08 11:22PM
will this be the final score NOW??? we can't afford not even a FG...........................
Aussieguy says:
10/27/08 11:26PM
i guess not
drinkbeer187 says:
10/27/08 11:27PM
Too bad peyton manning sucks. No INT, No TD
cubboy says:
10/27/08 11:31PM
that hurts real bad im wiped out
NOMOREPPARLAYS says:
10/27/08 11:35PM
Pity about the second half blowout Aussie.  This MNF Overs curse is really something this season.  At least the Public is enjoying it.  Will get them at hoops tomorrow.
Aussieguy says:
10/27/08 11:39PM
Yeah truly incredible. I guess moral of the story, Don't mess with the trend.
crookedIcon says:
10/28/08 12:05AM
looked great after the first half.... i actually won last week with the under on the MNF game, by half a point, but that was also my smallest MNF play, haha... as for basketball, lebron vs pierce, oden vs bynum, good individual matchups tommorrow, teams also
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Location: Australia
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