Aussieguy's Blog

Posted Monday, October 27, 2008 07:24 AM

Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick

23W-15L YTD
Has the MNF Under draught been broken yet?! Well you wouldn't think so when the MNF Over sits so pretty at 8-0-1 this NFL season!!!!!! Therefore, would I be way too stupid to take a stab at the Under here???? Or is it more like a sucidial case, where one is stabbing his own self by taking this Under?!
Whatever the case, all i know is that Tennessee boast the stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points during their last six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, where they've given up just 268.5 yards per game (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).
I also find it quite interesting that over 84% of the bets taken so far have been on the under, yet the total hasn't budged at all. I don't think it'll move much either. ...  Sharp money has been on the under
Pick: UNDER 40.5 for a 2.5 Unit play
 Good luck
AUSSIE

 



Posted Sunday, October 19, 2008 01:37 AM

AUSSIE'S NFL SUNDAY THREESOME

1- San Diego @ Buffalo Did we all just witness the demise of the Bills? Yeah, that's my big question for week 7: To rephrase it, Did week 5 produce the first of the many more to come losses for the Buffalo Bills - or was that just a slight bump on a very smooth path for them??? I really don't have the answer to my question, but I thought the Cardinals really smoked the Bills that week, exploiting some real vulenerable defense, which had not been exposed prior to that ugly loss (during their 4-0 run, they only surrendered 15 pts PG, before being given a free clinic by Arizona's offense) Not good news at all for the Bills! The only positive is that they now play in front of a home crowd who've been 'football-fasting' for a couple of weeks, and who'll be real hungry now to cheer their beloved team home to a victory after a bye-week. Nevertheless, what worries me about the Chargers is that they come in to this encounter after a serious blow out win, and this is a perfect spot for a let down for them. Also adding to my concern is the fact that S. Diego isn't a very reliable team when they're tourists.... The good news for S.Diego however, is that they somehow know how to notch up a W when playing the Bills.  Quite a few ifs and buts about this game, and that's why I have decided to only make a half time play here. Personally, I believe SD is a better team with alot of momentum and shou... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 11:49 PM

Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick

19W-11L Record... Before we get on with tonight's pick, let me get off my chest and say how sweet that blocked punt of Sean Morey felt!  Seriously, when was the last time you all experienced such sheer joy (if you had your hard earned on Arizona, that is) in an NFL game finish??? Wow, kudos to that Beisel-Morey last minute combo play Let's get to our play today now: LVSC put their heads down together and came up with a 42.5 total spread. The public put their heads down simultaneously and pounded the over, thinking that MNF on ESPN automatically warrants an over play, expecting another MNSF (monday night score fest) However, My 4 Unit question here is: Why is everyone so crazy about another MNSF? Is it simply because the couch potatoes at home want to see high scoring games on tele, or are they thinking these two teams have powerful offensive units?! Yeah I am aware that D.Anderson has been holding the fort somewhat, but who has he got on the receiving end tomorrow to throw to?! There are too many uncertainties, ifs and buts for the Browns. I'm not gonna' bother to cut paste numbers here from various nfl sites, but If you're a stat lover, they're definetely very unflattering for the home team. Just to add more woes to Cleveland, they're about to run into a brick solid Giants' defense. Burres said that he doesn't care much about what happens off the field, he's there to intercept the passes and get the jo... [More]

Posted Friday, October 10, 2008 10:00 PM

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona, AUSSIE'S Pick

18W-11L Record ...  I really believe if you're a hard-core Dallas fan you should be concerned at the way they've performed so far. I know some of you are thinking, what kind of an idiot is this guy, critisising a team which has gone 4-1 in the first 5 games  but yeah that's the kind of "idiot" I am, drawing my conclusion after witnessing perhaps one of the most unconvincing 4-1 ratios I've ever seen! Also, keep in mind all you Cowboys supporters, that this is the league's hardest division, and if Dallas is to finish on top of the NFC East, they have to desperately raise the bar here.   The Cardinals' offense, lead by the ever exciting Kurt Warner, has really caught everyone's attention raking in some decent numbers that are definetly worth a look!  While we're talking about levels of expectation, the 'Zona Boys sit at the opposite side of the spectrum to that of Dallas.  Therefore they have been swinging freely, as no one expected them to be the major contenders in the West!  I guess we can all identify with the fact that it is much, much easier to perform when you're not under pressure. This has been the case with the Cardinals so far. Let me also add that I was quite astounded to see Dallas last week, give up 16 unanswered pts to Cincy before getting their butt into gear in the late stages of the game. I don't think they'll be able to afford such s... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 21, 2008 08:27 AM

NFL Sunday, Aussie's Picks

Tampa @ Chicago. Very very rare that you'd see the Bears favoured here. This will be a grudge match and I believe points here will come at a premium. I don't believe Griese will get the red carpet rolled out for him either, as some sort of a "welcome back" party ...   As I commented in BB's 'total bias' column also, Vegas has set this intimidatingly low. The sensible thing to do, is to jump on the over as many have already done so. Nevertheless, as I mentioned before, this should be a very hard fought encounter with most of the action taking place in the centre... With question marks hanging over Hester too, who by the way is a dynamo, I strongly believe this should stay under the total..   Pick: UNDER 35.5 for 3.5 Unit play    Huston @ Tennessee. Well, here's a battle between two pathetic and overrated NFL outfits. Seriously, you'd be spewing if you're barracking for either of these two teams. Unconvincing as they've looked though, the Titans still are baosting a 2/0 Win/Loss record thus far, therefore they get my thumbs up here. The question is by how much will they win?! Both teams play a very tough defensive game style. Like I said, at home Tennessee will (should) get it done, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a score like 13-10. But I've been wrong several times before too . With a bit of extra luck though, we should see this baby stay under the set total too.   Pick: UNDER 39.5 for 3.5 Unit... [More]

Posted Saturday, August 16, 2008 08:13 AM

Jaguars - Fish, Aussie's Pick

So all of a sudden, just like that C Pennington has all the answers for the sorry ass Dolphis?! Is he even gonna get suited up for tonight's game against the Jags?!  Yeah probably he will, however I am not buying at all into all the hype that's surrounding his transfer to Miami.
 
Anyhow, again it's the totals that has my interest here. Miami's offence was bloody awful last week against Tampa and I don't foresee a whole lot of improvement take place today against the Jags who boast a very staunch defencive line. Add to all this, the fact that the Jags will be missing a few offensive starters and we have ourselves favoured quite nicely with a big chance for a low scoring game.  The books opened this at 33.5, and it's at 34.5 with most books now.
 
Pick. UNDER 34.5 ( for a 2.5 Unit play)
 
Fosters and good luck all around boys
 
7W-2L1P Record...
 
AUSSIE  


Posted Friday, August 15, 2008 07:02 PM

Raiders - Titans, Aussie's Pick

6W-2L-1P Record
 
I thought both teams looked pretty sharp last week, so tonight we have two teams with a great start to the new season. As I assessed this match up, I kept in mind last year's Tennessee's run game (especially at home) and I believe that fact will make things pretty hard for the struggling Raiders (who, let me say, were attrocious last season) Sure I may be way off the mark here, but I find it very difficult to believe that Oakland's offence has had a major face lift this year.  I expect loads of ball running tonight as the time keeps ticking away. A few iffs and buts in the Titans' line-up tonight, and we've got ourselves another Total winner here
Pick :  UNDER 35.5 for a 2 Unit play
 Fosters and good luck all around
AUSSIE 
 


Posted Wednesday, August 13, 2008 09:46 PM

Pittsburgh - Buffalo, Aussie's Pick

Sorry to start a new thread boys, but I got sick of scrolling down hundreds of posts in that old one. Hopefully though, only a new thread but the old streak remains the same . Remember this is a 'No Bull' NFL season for me.   5W-2L-1P Record ...   Anyhow, where was I before getting rudely interrupted?! Oh yeah, week 2 of the Pre-Season offers a nice total on the Steelers vs Buffalo Bills.  Pitt looked pretty sharp last week in both ends of the field i.e. offence as well as D.  Tomorrow I expect the fwd. line to clock in a full game and earn their pay against the Bills, whereas the backline to experimentally be chopped 'n changed as the coaching staff tests their various defensive crew!   And mate, what the bloody hell was up with Buffalo last week? I believe they'll come out swinging in front of their home crowd as the whole season ticket sales and memberships are on the line. Win or lose, the crowd want to see the Bills ability to touch the end of the line. Faith, confidence and trust needs to be restored in front of their home supporters.   As Pitt chops and changes their line up during the late stages of the game, look for the Bills to stick their nose in and take it up to the Steelers' "young guns'.  The line opened at 33.5 and here in the land DownUnder we can now get it at 31 flat!   Pick: OVER 31 for 3.5 Unit play   Fosters and good luck all aroun... [More]

Posted Friday, August 08, 2008 12:14 AM

Sea Eagles v Storm, Aussie's Pick

What a ripper of a match this will be. As much as I love Seinfeld, I am Spewing that Channel 9 has decided to show the Fab 4 Re-runs, thus delaying the telecast of this ripsnorter at Brookvale tonight .  These pretzles are making me thirsty ...   No doubt these two teams are the best in the game and both will try and prove a point tonight. Let's not talk about 2007 G/Final, but rather look at this as a 2008 G/Final preview. In my very humble estimation, I'd say that M.Crocker and B.Slater are probably more despised than osama and amrozi combined, at Brookvale! Speaking of that turf, Cam Smith said that "..it's pretty much like a graveyard there... it's extremely intimidating...I remember my first game there and I was shitting myself." And that is if the Manly crowd's got nothing against you!! Can you imagine the reception the Storm are set to receive tonight there???   By the same token I don't think the Storm crew is a bunch of pussies though, and I think Manly will be in for a dog of a fight. Melbourne is out to prove that they are the number 1 team in the competition and that they're shooting for a 3rd consecutive top place finish. "Crocker's a wanker" chant is probably bound to fire him up more tonight. "It's great" he said, "I can't wait", when he was told about the reception that he was to expect at Manly tonight.   The SeaEagles will have a couple of players out tonight (Kin... [More]

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