Aussieguy's Blog

Aussie's Cincinnati TMS Picks

By Aussieguy | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, July 27, 2008 10:25 PM   14 comments
Lopez - Seppi
 
Many would assume that this surface suits the big serving swift volleyi-er F LO, much better than his italian counterpart.  But as I already pointed out in my other article, the game is changing rapidly. I mean seriously, how many times have you seen F Lo, serve and volley over the past year? He too has opted for the new style of throwing bricks from the baseline. The only difference here however, is that F Lo ain't capable of throwing bricks but rather marshmallows!  His top-spin floating forehand and his boring backhand slice isn't gonna get him over the line today.  Seppi is a very decent player and not just on clay either. His height gives him a pretty decent serving percentage, and unlike F Lo he can really chuck bricks from the back of the court.
Lopez can't match Seppi, but it'll be a very good match to watch. 
Pick. Seppi the 'medium dog' for 5 Units 
 
Gonzalez - Berdych
Yeah what can you say about these two? On the one hand you have the raw talent of T.Berdych who, when he's on, can be the best of the best that there is in Tennis - But who's always been a betting liability for many of us here. Then you have Gonzo' who many thought would be the next big thing after teamming up with Larry Stefanki! His run at the Aus Open last year, many thought was a foreshadow of great things to come from the Chilean.  But the rest of the season however, was a Non-Event and has been such a let down for him.  He has struggled badly recently, crashing out of Wimbledon in the 2nd round to a crappy Italian player. 
This is a matter of who shows up tonight. If the brilliant Berdych makes an appearance, then Gonzo will struggle, but I think we've seen the "best" of Berdych. The kid is heartless and Gonzo' will continue his dominance over TB 
Pick Gonzalez the 'slight favourite' 2 Units  
 
Youzhny - Haas
I've got nothing against the Germans, but Haas falls under the 'vile Kiefer' category as far as I'm concerned. Apart from an arrogant prick, I never saw anything likeable in his game.
Whereas I love Youzhny's work ethic and his determination. The kid is out there giving it his all, until he's bleeding to death ... (sometimes he takes that too literally .....)
I believe This will go the distance, but in the end Youzhny will be the one smiling ...
Pick. Youzhny the 'slight favourite' 3 Units
 AUSSIE   
 
14 comments
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michaelpaul1 says:
07/27/08 10:48PM
How about Querry and Monfils...
michaelpaul1 says:
07/28/08 12:12AM
michaelpaul1 says:
07/28/08 12:14AM
I think you misunderstood mate...

 

Querry is playing Mathieu

Monfils is playing Young

bburr27 says:
07/28/08 12:59AM
NO VALUE with Gulbis
ohmyyikes says:
07/28/08 01:54AM
Can't find the HAAS match on 5dimes.??
Magpiekiller says:
07/28/08 09:55AM

It is a “Trotting race day” for me today,

so I am on run to visit two tracks and will try to puzzle some suggestions in

the breaks,  together to a swindling Lucky Seven. Btw. Both Red Sox and Jimmie Johnson were bullseye yesterday. I hope you had luck in your "Economical Planning, Studies and Acting for best Profits in Private Speculations on thr Internationel Markets" (= betting! gambling! lol) too.

ATP:
1) Gael Monfils vs. Donald Young
2) Victor

Estrella vs. Fernando Verdasco
3) Richard

Gasquet vs. Michael Llodra
4) Julien Benneteau vs.

Robin Soderling

 WTA:
5) Tamarine Tanasugarn

vs. Olivia Sanchez
6) Monique Adamczak vs. Sybille

Bammer
7) Jill Craybas vs. Sharon Fichman

 1) I can see that Monfils is in great form

and I think this will be an easy mission for him to beat Donald Young. As a

junior Young was splendid, these days he is not that star we thought he would

be. His life as a playboy is certainly holding him back. Gael Monfils has the

ability to go from defence to offence very quick and take his opponents by

surprise. He has a good serve and a very powerful forehand. In my opinion he is

many levels above Young. Donald Young is still living of the reputation he got

as a junior in Tennis, there is nothing special with him today.

 2) In my opinion Victor Estrella was very

lucky yesterday with his victory over a lazy or ill Paul Capdeville from Chile,

who totally choked during the second set (7/5, 6/0). Against Verdasco his luck

is over, so it will be the next airplane back to Dominican Republic.

3) After the match between the two men,

there is not much to add. Richard Gasquet is about a light year better than

Michael Llodra (but not “free money”! lol).

4) Interesting match. I am going to watch

it with a microscope. As many of us I was quite shocked in Soderling’s last

meeting with Benneteau. That must have been a rare and temporally choke,

because the way Soderling is playing today, I will back him with the greatest confidence.

The Frenchman is well-known for a defensive game, which is relying on good

depth and accuracy off his ground strokes to get the one on the other side of

the net into the swamp of errors, while his main artillery – the “strange”,

speedy forehand is working hard. But if Robin Soderling can hold back his

destructive temperament,  hit the ball

with rough treatment right on the line as usual, and, let his huge, cruel serve

talk. If Robin will be the good, old Robin today we will see an aggressive and

powerful tennis from the back of the court where Robin Soderling stands and

grab the victory.
   

5) I just love this lady from Thailand.

A real Oldie-but-Goldie. She has done such marvellous playing on the courts all

over the world. This match is a piece of cake for her.

6) This is an easy one to predict (I

guess). But it can be useful in a multiple. I can not see how Bammer has to act

to lose this one. An injury or a master-choke? I an quite sure that Bam-Bam

will win, but it is never “free money” in betting.

7) Jill Craybas is a

very possible winner here. Jill does not have the most varieties in technique

of all WTA players and her play is rather dull. Sharon Fichman is a 17-years

hungry young player of 17, who certainly is capable to do miracles on court.  But not today, not towards the more expired

Granny Jill. But I will give this match a little question mark, and,

definitively not put a large bet on it. 


Magpiekiller says:
07/28/08 10:00AM
 PS. I am sorry if I do a lot of misspellings and/or have a bad grammar in English. Your Magpie
ohmyyikes says:
07/28/08 03:21PM
Definitely great call on Seppi aussie. 
michaelpaul1 says:
07/28/08 07:06PM
Dont worry Auss...lots of matches...
ellwdmd says:
07/28/08 08:48PM
Aussie-great job on seppi-keep your chin up-I believe in you
embryo says:
07/29/08 12:12AM
aussie. since you are the master at picking dogs. it figures you would lose on your two fav . pics haha

but really good call on seppi. a day without losing money is still a good day.

your picks today show how picking dogs really can benefit, you lose 2/3 but still come out ok. thats good capping. 


ohmyyikes says:
07/29/08 12:45AM
Any tennis plays for tomorrow?
Gun7 says:
07/29/08 05:36AM
Mate, that calculation has left me scratching my cranium. Would have thought $100 a unit would mean $1,250 pocketed, that is, an overall uplift of $250 on the day.  Anyway, great tips, you always seem to work against the consensus of great cappers on your tennis tips which proves you know your stuff.  And well done on the Padres
Samitz8 says:
07/29/08 02:01AM
Aussie,

Looking forward to the picks for day 2. I've been following you for a while now. Since the Aussie Open when my boy JoWil was doing his thing (beating Nadal in the semi's). Been waiting to post for a good amount of time, i guess now is the time.

Rode with you yesterday, cashed big on Seppi, lost small amounts on Youzhny and Gonzo. Thank you! I wound up making out better for I placed 4 units on Querrey, that worked out. I also placed a small amount on Ginepri, was scared to place more because of the chalk! All in all, an excellent day.

Tomorrow has a nice card. Don't feel too qualified to make a prediction yet but Stepanek as a small fave over Andreev looks intriguing. I know Andreev has it in him for he took a set off Rafa, but Andreev is more a clay court player and hangs out behind the baseline where Stepanek should be able to maneuver around that. Not a big Stepanek fan but at -135 he is a worth 4 units.

Other possible leans: Tippsar over Moya 3 units. Some chalk on Tipps but I don't see Moya doing anything.

Kiefer and Simon again? Fantastic! I don't see Keifer beating him two weeks in a row. 2 units on Simon. Aussie, what are your thoughts on this match? It should be a great one. Oh, and why not throw a bit down on Ginepri over Fed??? Could it happen again? Don't let the books win again...live on the edge!

See you all day 2.

Cheers,

Samitz8

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