Did some research.. 68% Trend for Week 1

I went back 3 seasons, beginning with 2006-2007 and looked at the Pre-Season AP Top 25.  I took those teams and looked to see if they covered in Week 1.  There were 2 parameters:
1.  They had to play a D-I opponent
2.  They were playing an unranked team

So, for example, Oregon plays Boise, both are ranked, so I didn't count either as a W or L, I simply erased both..

Here are the results by year:

2006-2007
Ranked teams went 14-3 ATS

2007-2008
Ranked teams went 10-6 ATS

2008-2009
Ranked teams went 6-5 ATS

Notice the drop off, in not only the cover %, but also the games played.  Last year we had 14 teams either playing each other, or playing D-II opponents.

Anyway, this trend comes out to 30-14 or 68%.

There are 11 games this season that fit the mold.  Trend states that between 7-8 of those 11 will be winners:

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Utah v USU

Texas v ULM

USC v San Jose St

Ohio St v Navy

Penn St v Akron

LSU v Washington

Maryland v Cal

ND v Nevada

Nebraska v Florida Atlantic

Memphis v Ole Miss

Florida St v Miami, FL

Best of luck


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