If Iowa wins out...

Not saying they will, but if they do, they would have 4 wins over teams in the Top 25 (Arizona, Wisconsin, Penn St and Ohio St).

Texas, if they win out, would have 2 (Okl and OSU).

Is the B10 top to bottom really worse than the B12?  Outside of Texas and Okie St, each team has 3 losses.  If you compare the top 11 teams in the B12 vs. B10, who would be favored on neutral field..  My guesses are below

Texas -7 vs. Iowa
Oklahoma State vs. Penn St -5
Oklahoma -3 vs. Ohio St
Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin -4
Kansas St vs. Minnesota -1
Nebraska -3.5 vs. Michigan State
Texas A&M vs. Northwestern -2
Iowa St vs. Purdue -3
Kansas -6.5 vs. Michigan
Missouri -8.5 vs. Indiana
Baylor vs. Illinois -3

Don't see the B10 losing the majority of these games..

In conclusion, it might not be pretty, but if Iowa runs the table, their resume would be better than Texas and the Hawkeyes should jump the Horns..

Even though it will never happen..

Did some research.. 68% Trend for Week 1

I went back 3 seasons, beginning with 2006-2007 and looked at the Pre-Season AP Top 25.  I took those teams and looked to see if they covered in Week 1.  There were 2 parameters:
1.  They had to play a D-I opponent
2.  They were playing an unranked team

So, for example, Oregon plays Boise, both are ranked, so I didn't count either as a W or L, I simply erased both..

Here are the results by year:

2006-2007
Ranked teams went 14-3 ATS

2007-2008
Ranked teams went 10-6 ATS

2008-2009
Ranked teams went 6-5 ATS

Notice the drop off, in not only the cover %, but also the games played.  Last year we had 14 teams either playing each other, or playing D-II opponents.

Anyway, this trend comes out to 30-14 or 68%.

There are 11 games this season that fit the mold.  Trend states that between 7-8 of those 11 will be winners:

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Utah v USU

Texas v ULM

USC v San Jose St

Ohio St v Navy

Penn St v Akron

LSU v Washington

Maryland v Cal

ND v Nevada

Nebraska v Florida Atlantic

Memphis v Ole Miss

Florida St v Miami, FL

Best of luck


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