I went back 3 seasons, beginning with 2006-2007 and looked at the Pre-Season AP Top 25. I took those teams and looked to see if they covered in Week 1. There were 2 parameters:
1. They had to play a D-I opponent
2. They were playing an unranked team
So, for example, Oregon plays Boise, both are ranked, so I didn't count either as a W or L, I simply erased both..
Here are the results by year:
2006-2007Ranked teams went 14-3 ATS
2007-2008Ranked teams went 10-6 ATS
2008-2009Ranked teams went 6-5 ATS
Notice the drop off, in not only the cover %, but also the games played. Last year we had 14 teams either playing each other, or playing D-II opponents.
Anyway, this trend comes out to
30-14 or 68%.There are 11 games this season that fit the mold. Trend states that between 7-8 of those 11 will be winners:
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Utah v USU
Texas v ULM
USC v San Jose St
Ohio St v Navy
Penn St v Akron
LSU v Washington
Maryland v Cal
ND v Nevada
Nebraska v Florida Atlantic
Memphis v Ole Miss
Florida St v Miami, FL
Best of luck