Super Bowl Futures --- What am I missing?

Book is offering a Colts vs Saints S.B. at -120

Below that is: Colts vs Vikings S.B. at +220

I personally like the Colts v Saints and think that will happen. That being said, I think the Colts are there no matter what. So with those lines, surely you have to drop a -120 to win $100 on Colts v Saints and then turn around and insure yourself with 1/2 (or $55) your wager on original bet with Colts v Vikings at +220, right?! I mean, you win money or break even as long as the Colts win SU tomorrow. If I do what I just listed, I will get a return of $100 if Colts v Saints and lose $55 for a total of +$45.00 if Saints win. If Saints lose, I will lose the -$120 but but end up breaking even with $55 on the +220.

You have to play this, right? You are getting the teams on the ML in this deal. I love my chances on the Colts ML. As far as the other game, I like the Saints on the ML but still break even or mess with the money so I win a little bit if the Vikes do pull it off. VERY tempting to go large but can't do it due to Jets great defense, but I don't see how I can pass this up if I'm not missing something!

P.S. I am gonna effing dominate the Thursday card and 2H plays.

Screw the bad beats. I took an extra oxycodone and I'm now over the losing 4 games by a total of 5.5 points (and the unbelievable fashion of how they lost.) Screw it. I know I was on the right side even though my bookie account will show otherwise. You can't predict 4:00 minute droughts with no scoring or 3 inbounding turnovers in :24 seconds and another turnover with :08 seconds to go, or a dumbass Texas guy turning the inbounds over with :12 seconds to go and then missing 2 FTs at the end of the game (believe it was the same player that did both of those things for UT. Hmmmm...). Anyway, f*ck you, Thursday card. You are mine. And 2H Totals will once again be my biznatch.

*imagine the machine gun scene from Scarface here*

Numbers - Trends - Stats - Sides - Sharps

Did this last year toward the end of the year and had good success. Am doing it from the start of the Season this year and seeing if I'm onto something. Last week I had 5 plays that went 3-2, one of the losses being a backdoor. Ouch! Without getting really specific, I basically look for plays that have lower public action but a high % on the money. I then go in and look at which team was getting what percentage of action when the lines opened and how it has played out. Not a lot of matches in Week 2 but that's ok. Here is what I have:

Week 2 NFL: 3-2 LW


Carolina at Atlanta:

Right now, 32% of the public is on Carolina at +6.5 points while 78% of the money is sitting on the Panthers. These are the type of numbers that I look for, but once I went to see what type of action or % was on the Panthers when the line dropped, it wasn't a dominate percentage, which throws me off a bit. I don't know if sharps are waiting and hoping the public pushes this line up to 7 or what. I doubt that is going to happen. I think the best you will see is a +6.5 with some jacked up vig. However, if this line is somehow drops tomorrow before kickoff, I'm going to assume that some sharps settled for 6.5 on this one. As far as the Total goes, 73% are on the Over for this game, and it was hammered coming out of the gates. Oddly enough, it opened at 43 and has since dropped to 42.5 points. Not a huge change, but enough to make me nervous. Either way, a system is a sytem and these ... [More]

I'm surprised some many are backing Georgia Tech

I was going to do my whole "Whatchya gonne do when Graig Cooper runs all over you, Brother?!" thing....or maybe throw in Jacory Harris throwing all over GTech, but I'm just going to be straight up, no gimmicks.

Yes, I'm a diehard Miami fan, however, I can look at Miami games objectively and pretty much be right on. I've stayed away from dropping money on (or against) Miami for the last 4 years so. I can tell you that things have changed this year. This will be my 2nd straight game dropping $$$ on Miami. People need to understand that the Canes had the worst possible guy running their offense over the last two year. Patrick Nix was HORRIBLE! Randy Shannon finally did something right and hired Mark Whipple to take over the offense. This guy has a  plethora of experience at both the college and NFL level. You saw him exploit mismatch after mismatch vs. Florida State a few weeks ago. If you are one of those saying that "Florida St ain't shiiiittt" because J'Ville took them down to the wire last week, then think again. They clearly were hungover after devastating loss to Miami and didn't give a f*ck about that game but they were able to pull it out at the end to win it. All that being said, Miami FINALLY has an offense and a QB again! Shannon has put together some stud recruiting classes and they have studs at QB, WR and RB now. They will put up points on G. Tech, I promise you. For those of you concerned that G Tech put up 472 rushing yards on the Canes last year, l... [More]