Did this last year toward the end of the year and had good success. Am doing it from the start of the Season this year and seeing if I'm onto something. Last week I had 5 plays that went 3-2, one of the losses being a backdoor. Ouch! Without getting really specific, I basically look for plays that have lower public action but a high % on the money. I then go in and look at which team was getting what percentage of action when the lines opened and how it has played out. Not a lot of matches in Week 2 but that's ok. Here is what I have:

Week 2 NFL: 3-2 LW


Carolina at Atlanta:

Right now, 32% of the public is on Carolina at +6.5 points while 78% of the money is sitting on the Panthers. These are the type of numbers that I look for, but once I went to see what type of action or % was on the Panthers when the line dropped, it wasn't a dominate percentage, which throws me off a bit. I don't know if sharps are waiting and hoping the public pushes this line up to 7 or what. I doubt that is going to happen. I think the best you will see is a +6.5 with some jacked up vig. However, if this line is somehow drops tomorrow before kickoff, I'm going to assume that some sharps settled for 6.5 on this one. As far as the Total goes, 73% are on the Over for this game, and it was hammered coming out of the gates. Oddly enough, it opened at 43 and has since dropped to 42.5 points. Not a huge change, but enough to make me nervous. Either way, a system is a sytem and these numbers say: Play Over 42.5 and lean on Panthers (but watch for line movement tomorrow)


St. Louis at Washington:

Another strange situation. Currently 22% of the public is on the Rams at +9.5 and 70% of the money. Despite the huge public favor, this line opened at 10 and dropped down to 9.5 points. I know it's not a significant drop, but 10 is a key number, so it took some heavy action to get this number down to 9.5, especially when 78% of the public are on Washington. When the line opened, the action coming in was rather even on both sides as far as percentages go, but I have to think that sharps hit up the double digit dog pretty hard to drive this number off of 10. I know some sharps will take any double digit spread in the NFL when the lines drop, as DD dogs have a crazy % of hitting. So once again, according to the %s that I look at, it's a play but not a super convincing one.: Play St. Louis +9.5


Cleveland at Denver:

Currently 41% of the public is on Cleveland's side and 91% of the money. The money being that high is not a big surprise since the number is sitting at 3 points. Like I said before though, a system is a system and I have to stay true to it in order to see if it holds up. Also in this game, the Total of 38 points is pretty even with the public, as 53% are on the Over. However, when this Total opened, the Over was pounded pretty hard, with upward of 90% of wagers coming in being on the Over. This last pretty much the entire first day that the line opened. So here go: Play Cleveland and Over 38 --- (Over looks to be a strong play.)


Baltimore at San Diego:

Another thing that I look for is when an overwhelming percentage of the public is on a play, and then I look to see how hard each side was wagered on when the line opened, as I believe the sharps make plays when the lines are made available. In this case, 84% of the public is on Baltimore at +3 and the Ravens were hammered when this line opened. I saw around 88% of the action was on Baltimore when the line came available. Since the line is sitting on 3, I have to believe the sharps nailed Baltimore when it opened. : Play on Baltimore +3

- Some other interesting stuff are these Totals:

NE / NY Jets: 71% of public on Over 46 yet line dropped to 45.5

Cincy / GB: 93% of public on Over 42 (where it opened)

Minny / Det: 67% of public on Over 47 but line has dropped to 45

NO / Philly: 93% of public on Over 46.5

AZ / Jax: 77% of public on Over 43

SF / Sea: 71% on Over 39.5

Balt / SD: 77% over 40.5

Pit / Chi: 80% on Over 37.5

Just crazy high percentages on a ton of Overs this week. I think something has got to give. I may update this as I take a closer look at the Totals and also a few games are missing the money % and I want to see that.