BandosWB's Blog

Posted Saturday, December 18, 2010 12:37 AM

Back to basics Saturday

Yesterday: 1-3, -3.25u

YTD: 111-97-9 Overall full game, 23-15-2 middle/2h, 2-2 ml, 6-11-1 teasers/ml parlay, +12.65u
Mountain West record: 24-19-5, 7-3 2h, 1-0ml, 3-1 teasers +12.95u

Still bleeding money, been playing too many games for the "action" this past week and haven't had only one winning day since last Tuesday.  Had a bunch of leans for tomorrow, narrowed down to three picks that I like.

Detroit +1 1u
Detroit +6/Matty Ice pk 1u

Scary how much I love this matchup.  Det scores by grit: offensive boards and getting to the line.  Central Michigan doesn't rebound well, and is ranked 337th in allowing opponents to get to the line.  if Detroit was at home and laying 4 or 5, I would have made this a bigger play.  But being on the road makes this just 1u and 1u teased with the falc. Some may look at the loss on the road at W Mich and pause - but W Mich is actually very very good at preventing FT's. 

Wichita State -4 1u

Semi-Away.  Wichita looks to get everyone back against LSU.  SOS advantage, makes the 3pt shooting of Wich st look better.  Should have a slight rebounding ADV.  Huge experience advantage(26 vs 327th).  I know it is not this easy but losing to Coastal Carolina and going to OT with McNeese state speaks volumes to me.  It is in Louisiana, but this is the kind of win Wich needs for tourney purposes.  lay the 2 possessions.

Long Beach State +9 ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, December 14, 2010 11:14 AM

Tuesday, back to work

Yesterday: MW: 1-1, 0-1 2h, -1.7u

YTD: 103-86-9 Overall full game, 23-12-2 middle/2h, 2-2 ml, 6-10-1 teasers/ml parlay, +21.75u
Mountain West record: 23-17-5, 7-2 2h, 1-0ml, 3-1 teasers +15.75u

Well, the 1h went as planned.  I should not have tried the fg but I am not unhappy with the 2h.  0-18 from 3 is a loser no matter how you slice it - that is why is gambling.  They did the 9-2 run to start the 2h and I thought we were on our way.  They got 5 or so more extra possessions by dominating the boards.  Moving on.  Too bad I didn't play more games straight.  My leans of OR 1h, FAU to +4, WGB, and Trim;s UC Davis play were all winners.  Had I not felt a bit out of sorts after the weekend, I might have played all those and had a monster night.  Gotta learn to live with losses and just move on to the next day.

Think we have some good spots.  As I wrote in the Monday thread:

Denver at Wyoming (Tuesday)

KP -6.  WY laid another egg on the road, but get to come back home to get back on the winning track against a struggling Denver team.  Denver plays the gridlock princeton offense.  This is a great matchup for WY.  WY gets to the line(46.3%) and Denv allows it (rank 345! @ 67.5)  Denver wants to get to the line but WY is pretty good allowing only 35% FTA/FGA.  Denver also shoots a bunch of three's, and that is a weakness of WY.  But I don't trust 3pt ... [More]

Posted Thursday, December 09, 2010 09:57 PM

Weekend Mountain West Writeups and discussion

Typical degen action play result today 0-1.  Back to some level of discipline.  Here are my writeups of this weekends Mountain West Games.  Lines will be out Friday at 5pm or so and might want to hit some right then, so I wanted to get some feedback on these games.

Mountain West writeups for Friday AND Saturday 12-11

Friday:
Wyoming at UC Irvine

KP -2, 70 possessions, 142 pts.  Two teams I have bet on quite a bit.  UC Irvine killed me on Sunday as I anticipated their best player Eric Wise to return, and he didn't.  He is questionable for this tilt. Wyoming is trying to be one of my favorite teams, earning 44th in FT rate at 47%, whereas Irvine allows a 40% FT rate, rank 189.  Slight edge UCIrvine on thew boards, but this is a great weakness for this WY team, and one that UCirvine might not exploit.  WY has a substantial SOS advantage.  It remains to be seen whether this team will be able to perform on the road as they have laid two eggs on the road, @N Colorado and @ S. Dakota.  If Wise plays, how rusty will he be, how effective?  As I write it up, sounds like a ton of question marks, no?

Utah at Michigan.

KP -7, 66 poss, 125 toal.  Utah is tall, middle of the road SOS, and experience.  Michigan is similar SOS and experience, rather short, but outrebounds Utah on paper.  As I have written many times, Utah is 8th in the nation in getting to the line at 53.5% FT rate.&nb... [More]

Posted Monday, December 06, 2010 10:59 PM

Bandos 12/7-12/10 Plays, writeups of all Mountain West gamess

Overall:
YTD: 91-72-6 Overall full game, 20-11-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 6-7-1 teasers/ml parlay, +29.8 u
Mountain West record: 18-12-4, 5-1 2h, 1-0ml, 3-0 teasers +15.7u


Mountain West write-ups week of 12/6

Boise St at UNLV

KP -16.  Boise is over achieving.  I faded them Sunday and LBst got the better of them and won outright.  LBst is now the most difficult team Boise has faced.  Against LB st, Boise did force 23 TO, but got outrebounded 37-29, and let a poorish shooting LBst shoot 45% from the field and 7-12 from 3.  In addition they made more FT than Boise attempted.  Thus the SOS angle shows that Boise excellent rates are a mirage.  UNLV is one of the best shooting teams, and the "weakness" on the defensive boards doesn't appear to be one in this matchup.  Further, UNLV doesn't turn the ball over much.  This is a one sided game.  Our only question is UNLV's motivation.  They are AT Louisville next, after a crap 2h vs a bad Nevada team.  I see a DD win for UNLV, so it will depend on the number.  There is no way to play Boise, however.

Vermont at BYU

KP -16.  Do we get a line?

Major lookahead to AZ Saturday for BYU but the matchup is ideal for BYU - VT turns it over, doesn't rebound well, and scored on jumpers - just what BYU can defend well, ie a jumpshooting unathletic bunch.

SDS at Cal

KP+5.  SDS will be a fav.  Maybe not 5 but 2-... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 05, 2010 10:32 AM

bandos Sunday leans/plays, writeups with a MW play

Yesterday:
3-4-3, 2h/middle 2-1, ml parlay/teaser 0-3, -4.9u
MW: 2-4-3, 2h 1-1, -2.9

Overall:
YTD: 89-71-6 Overall full game, 19-11-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 6-5-1 teasers/ml parlay, +30.1 u
Mountain West record: 18-11-4, 4-1 2h, 1-0ml, 3-0 teasers +17.4u

Tough Saturday.  Tough way to wake up too, Passed out with a 21 half pt lead with UNLV that would have made me close to whole - but they mailed in the 2h.  Three Pushes - NM was luck in my favor, BYU had that at 24 under two minutes, Not sure how Fresno went down.  I think I made all the juice back that I lay by buying the hook by tat push on BYU.  Watched SDS play - I thought Wich would compete with them on the boards - I was wrong - they are elite rebounders.

Today has one MW game:

Air Force -2 (-120) 2u

Played this last night.  Evansville off a huge win vs Butler, 4th road game in a row, going to altitude to play a super disciplined, gridlock AF squad.  Looks like a good spot to fade Evansville, no?  Also, the matchup is solid for AF.  Both of these teams get to the line, but AF doesn't let you get there, and Evansville does.  Also AF has the better shooters.  As always, AF will lose rebounding but Evansville aren't world beaters on the glass either.  And AF should win the TO battle.  I think the SOS advantage by Evansville is concerning, but it seems like a tough spot for them.

Still looking at Tulsa, TX, MD, and ... [More]

Posted Friday, December 03, 2010 04:22 PM

Bandos Saturday Mountain West Writeups and leans

I'm not sharpstick but I am up over 20 units on MW plays largely because I have read and followed as closely as I can.

UNLV at Nevada

KP has it at 18.  Nevada is truly bad this year.  Sub-average in both O and D against very average competition.  The only thing they have done well so far is shoot the three 36%, and defend the 2 42.5%. That will be tested by a UNLV team that is 4th in FG% at 60.  UNLV will force a ton turnovers, win the battle of the boards.  Someone pointed out an angle of playing DD road favs, as they as SO much better to be laying DD on the road.  UNLV proved to me last game that they can go on the road and demolish a bad team.  With a deep rotation, no look ahead, I expect them to do it again.  they know that every win is important for a mid major, especially in a conference as deep as the MW.  Expect to be on UNLV anything under 20.

HA at BYU

KP has it at 27.  HA is a truly bad team that has played no one so has some nice looking percentages.  I remember reading a couple of Hawaii previews - some talent, not there yet, was what I remember.  They have beaten the creampuffs on their schedule at home, lost to a bad cal Poly team on the road.  Covering huge numbers comes down to motivation and as I have pointed out before, BYU likes to embarrass people on their home court.  dropped 107 on chicago state, beat miss valley state by 50.  HA is not much better th... [More]

Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 09:14 AM

If you are playing the Mizzou/OR game, please take a look

Seeing a lot of Mizzou love and with good reason - they really impressed us by hanging with Gtown - should have won that game, etc.  And many are commenting on how this can be only 6 as OR is a big fade in most people's minds.  KP had it -6.

But taking a dispassionate approach.

Situationally this couldn't be a worse spot for Mizzou.  Tough, emotionally draining MOOSE OT loss in a game that they should/could have won.  

-Now they go 2000 miles to Eugene, OR, to play at MacArthur court - a generally tough place to play.  

-Then they have Vandy next.  

- Now, I do NOT know this for a fact, but I think some of the enthusiasm for the FB team will spill over here as people are extremely jacked for the Civil War game this Sat., thus they may come out in force for the BBall game (anyone from UofO wanna let us in on how many tickets are available for this game?)

Stats/Style:

- They only thing Mizzou does well defensively is force TO (29%, 6th in nation) - otherwise they are merely average in preventing points, don't rebound that well, and just gave up 111 to Gtown (1OT)

- Oregon likes to run, is happy to run with Mizzou, and only turns the ball over 18%, 58th in the nation.  Sure Mizzou wins the TO battle, but not by much.  

- Boards should be about equal.

- OR has a much stronger SOS so far, tho playing Duke has a lot to do with that.

- OR should get to the line more[More]

Posted Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:46 PM

Wednesday Plays/Leans and writeups

Sacking, but decided to post this unedited drivel

Purdue +2 1u

Watched Vtech struggle against a tough D in UNLV.  Purdue is even better at forcing turnovers.  certainly Both teams will be motivated coming off of losses, but this looks like a great matchup for Purdue.

 SDS -6 1.5u

Something has got to give here.  SM 8th in d rebounding allowing only 24.3% offensive rebounding.  SDS makes its living on the offensive glass.  We have a bit of a schedule issue here again.  St. Mary's has only played one team that hits the offensive galss well, St. John's.  In that game 9 OR v 21 D, or over 30% - about thirr average from last year.  Revenge for SDS at they lost by 22, with Samhan dominating (17 pts, 16 boards), McConnell went 6-8 from behind the arc.  St. mary's has been wildly over achieveing according to KP so far this year.  I expect a lot of easy put backs; Samhan is gone and revenge is sweet.  KP has this at -5, LVSC at -6, I got it at -6

Leans: USF+3.5, ODU-3, Ecu -6, utst-9.5

NM at S. Illinois +2

Lots of fouls - good matchup for nm

UNLV at Ill St +9.5

Worried about a let down, but this is a major mismatch, and Ill St hasn't played anyone yet.  They may not know what hit them - if UNLV comes to play...

BYU at Creighton +6

Creighton is a sharp shooting team - launches a bunch of three's, and has hit almost 80% from the stripe.  Also... [More]

Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 11:10 AM

Wicked Early Tuesday discussion/leans/writeups

Just my notes - Back to work tomorrow and am trying to get ahead a bit.  WELCOME any feedback on the big dogs/situational plays.(lines are KP projections)

Fresno at Utah, kp -13

Utah off 2 losses, a bad one vs Oral Roberts.  Regressing to the mean after a decent/hot start.  They will certainly be motivated to get a W at home to end the skid.  Fresno, however, is a bad matchup for them.  While I certainly won't play Fresno, I won't play Utah as well.  Their offensive strategy is getting to the rim, but the only thing Fresno does well is prevent that.  They have committed fewer fouls than every team they have faced.  Probably Pass, even though I like the spot.

leans - situational LEANS

Sac St +25, Kansas St. then gonzaga next for Wazzou, a team I like.  25 is hard to cover at 65 possessions.  Wazzou should regress to the mean a bit shooting??  But a really bad matchup for sac st, who is truly awful.

E Wash +29???
Zaga in sandwich spot with Illinois next after a win vs Marquette.  E wash is just atrocious though.

Cal st fullerton- decent matchup with 16 pts.

Cornell +21???, Sandwich spot for Cuse, Cornell has been competitive - though this is a major step up in class

Middle Tenn +20, sandwich for Tenn, VCU and Nova wins, Pitt next but in a week and a half?

Ind ST - major flat spot for ND - big hopping up and down win over Wisky, KY on deck.  Ind St c... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 10:29 PM

Bandos two play Monday w/ a Mountain West Pass

Mountain West Pass

USC at TCU

USC is playing the same exceptional defense from last year, and having trouble scoring.  TCU has been a bit better than expected.  This is a mismatch BOTH ways.  USC has a much better frontcourt with Vucevic and Stevenson, but TCU is better (til Jio Fontan plays) in the backcourt.  TCU should win the TO battle, and USC the rebounding.  Neither team is esp good from the line, neither one gets there a lot, tho.  KP has it at TCU +2, opened at TCU -2.  I had a great read on the TCU/Houston game but nothing jumps out here. Flip a coin.  Pass.

Boise -5.5 1u

This looks like a big mismatch with Boise over-achieving thus far and N. Illinois playing exactly to their projected putrescence.  generally I like teams that get fouled and go to the line which N. Illinois does.  Unfortunately, they turn the ball over to much and Boise has been great at forcing TO so far.  And rebound rather poorly - they will be substantially shorter than Boise. In addition, Boise is even better at getting to the line with a 51% FTA/FGA.  So I'm on the road laying points - always a dicey proposition, but they have won vs SD and UC Davis on the road already.  Should be a DD win so it's worth a play.

Rider -10 1u

Rider is coming off a loss so they will want to win this game.  This is a huge factor when considering laying DD, even at home.  I hate teams like Rider th... [More]

Posted Saturday, November 27, 2010 09:17 AM

Bandos Saturday Plays, Leans, Writeups

YTD: 61-54-2 Overall full game, 11-5-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 4-1-1 teasers/ml parlay, +18.1 u
Mountain West record: 11-6, 1-0 2h, 1-0ml, 2-0 teasers +12.7

 3-6 yesterday -1.35u

Couldn't have been more wrong about BYU or USF for that matter.  Added plays, no so hot.  My situational plays probably need their own category; winners with MiamiOH, Manhattan; losers with ND st., OH and Santa Clara.  I laid off Elon which was a winner.  My approach may be flawed and I would welcome thoughts.  Easy to find the schedule spots, but finding the right teams...
1. Like teams that can shoot the three
2. Like the team to have a decent defense
3. Like a low tempo

Moutain West lean: TCU -5.5

Other:
Penn, low tempo, big line
Oregon, sandwich game/flat spot for Duke, at McArthur I would have already played it but at the Rose Garden
TX, Rice should offer little resistance b/c they will really struggle to score.
Irvine, at least they have West, and Marist is god awful.  The travel has me concerned as Irvine doesn't really travel acorss the country so I am unsure how they will respond.
Cleveland State, somone get me off this train but this team just covers for me.



Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 11:14 AM

Bandos "Buy nothing day" picks, leans, writeups

Stanford didn't show up, Temple shat themselves with a 7 pt lead, and I missed the middle of the Manhattan game to juice out yesterday.  Big card today - haven't really looked at the games from the 2nd day of the tourneys but I have already played these

Mountain West Play

BYU -13 1u

If this was at home, and -16, it would probably be a 2, maybe even my first 3 unit play.  BYU is absolutely embarassingly shameless when it comes to running up the score and USF should offer little resistance.  Fredette looks like a real prick, and when I am laying DD I want a bunch of pricks who like to embarass opponents.  Did they really need to get to 87 possessions and 109 points against Chicago State?

BYU should dominate the TO, win the boards - and actually, they haven't shot as well as they can yet.  USF has Gilchrist, a bunch of juco/transfers.  Anderson and Robertson have some promise, and they will win a few BE games, but I am gonna take the pricks from BYU who have the talent and experience and desire to run this sucker up.

Other Plays:

Miami OH +25 (-120) 1u

List by one on this kind of play with NDst, won easy with Manhattan.  Big line, small possessions, Miami OH has a better than average D, shoots the 3 ball well, and if Ohio State has a weakness defensively, it is in defending the 3 ball.  That may be becasue they have been blowing people out and facing a larger % of threes.  Nonethless, w... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 24, 2010 09:54 AM

Bandos "Discipline 007, discipline" Wednesday plays

YTD: 50-45-2 Overall full game, 9-4-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 3-1 teasers/ml parlay, +13.5 u
Mountain West record: 9-5, 1-0ml, 1-0 teasers +9.3

2-4 yesterday

Nothing played yet, but I wrote these yesterday.

Utah at Utah State LVSC at -11 (KP -11) currently at -9.5

Utah has covered two spreads so far and are a bit of a surprise thus far.  There are a lot of new faces in Utah.  One thing to note is that in the early going they have been getting to the line and hitting an incredible 84% from the stripe.  Utah St. will not make it so easy - they were 26th in the nation is FTA/FGA last year.  Utah has also been hitting their field goals - something that will be much harder against Utah St.  This is a big rivalry - with Utah St. still licking their wounds from a tough loss at BYU (more questionable officiating in a BYU game).  Utah St. will relish the opportunity to run it if they get the chance.  Lean Utah St.

Air Force at Wofford LVSC -15 (KP at -9) currently at 13.5

I don't know if Wofford is in a position to overlook anyone, but they do have Xavier next.  And AF is a team you could overlook.  AF shot a ridiculous % vs Tenn St. last time blowing them out.  AF will be more competitive this year but they are still a below average club.  Wofford is well rounded and battle tested, having a brutal schedule to start the season (Minn, Clem, Gtown).  That seemed to work out for them as th... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 23, 2010 09:33 AM

Bandos "Cancun" Tuesday Plays with write-ups

48-41-2 Overall full game, 9-4-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 3-1 teasers/ml parlay, +17 u
Mountain West record: 9-4, 1-0ml, 1-0 teasers +10.5

Yesterday: 4-0, +6.5u

Had a nice day yesterday - was real confident in those picks making three 2unit picks after making 2 only two 2unit picks in the previous three weeks.  What we learned:
Fade jumpshooting teams at the end of tournaments.  Kemba Walker is good, really good.SDS can at least push in the 1h
Tuesdays plays (might take a look at some of the lines that aren't out yet but nothing is jumping out at me)

Mountain West Play

Missouri -18.5 1u

Wyoming v. Mizzou -18 (-120) (in Cancun)

As with all big lines, I looked at the dog here in Wyoming.  Simply, they have yet to play well, barely covering vs a W. Ill at home (had I know that their two best guards were definitely playing, I would have been on them).  A big factor in lines this big is tempo as we have seen with the likes of st. Pete's - it is hard to cover big lines at 62 possessions.  However, Both WY and Mizzou like to get up and down the court.  This one should easily be in the 70's and could get to 75 (KP has it at Mizzou -19, 73 poss).  With that a play on WY is out and I thought I would just pass. However, the up tempo will play right into Mizzou's hands who have the more talented team.  WY turns the ball over too much and Mizzou should have lots of easy baskets.  Anderson wants to s... [More]

Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 11:54 AM

Bandos "no work, all play" Monday

44-41-2 Overall full game, 9-4-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, 3-1 teasers/ml parlay, +10.5 u
Mountain West record: 7-4, 1-0ml, 1-0 teasers +6.5

Yesterday: 3-6, 2h 2-0, -1.05

My plays at the bell based on preseason understanding went 0-3-1.  Not Good.  Thus, no more of that shit.  And no more purple either.  Time to be much more selective and raise the units on Mountain West plays.  I will always scan the card and the overall schedule for good spots, though.

Connecticut -1.5 .5u

Homer pick here:  I think UConn win the TO and rebounding battle, Wichita D has been a little leaky thus far, so Uconn should score enough to get the W.

Duquesne -1.5 1u, -3 1u

Getting the much better team.  Return 4 starters, Much more experienced team, best player on the court in Saunders.  BG is weak in the frontcourt, where Duq is strong, once again with Saunders, but they appear to have to the advantage in the backcourt too.  Gotta have good reasons to back a team on the road and these look like good ones to me.  Line jumped to 3.5 now.  I would play it to 5.

Mountain West Plays

San Diego State -10 2u

Seem like they conserved some energy in the first two games but I was a little surprised to see how minutes the the starters logged for SDS.  Nonetheless, Miami OH is a jump shooting team, playing for the third consecutive day.  They did not shoot well in the 2h last night and I ex... [More]

Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 11:05 PM

Bandos Mountain West write-ups and initial plays

Air Force -1  1u

I played this at the open since I thought it would move in my favor.  LVSC had AF+2, bookmaker opened it at -1, it is now at -1.5. KP has it at 7.  I definitely have the experience factor going for me here.  I have watched this AF teama few times last year and they struggle to score but the effort is there.  Tenn ST has a lot of new faces.  But As I dug deeper, I found that Tenn ST had actually played a couple of competitive games with Miss St. and Ill St.  AF has played no one of that caliber.  I love the fact that this game is at altitude in Co.  When I look at it, I still expect AF to win, but I may have been a bit hasty.  I may buy out/middle some if the line continues to rise. I did buy back half at +2.

SDS -13 v. Wisc GB.

This comes down to motivation.  is SDS gonna have a mini let down aftre that huge emotional win vs. the Zags?  Maybe.  Is SDS a much better team.  Yes.  WGB has some efficient guards but SDS will do whatever they want in the block.  WGB shoots lots of threes - this might have caused last years team a problem but the leaky three point D apears to have been sealed a bit.  Expect a 2-1 or better rebound advantage and a lot of easy points in the paint.  It all comes back to motivation.  They will be DD favs for this whole crappy tournament.  Do they work some kinks out, play with rotation?

UNLV -3.5 v. Wisconsin[More]

Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 06:55 PM

Bandos Friday "early season plays" and a Mountain West play for Sat

Irvine -9 v. Navy 1u
PSU -8 v. Fairfield 1u
Cleveland State -3 (-120) 1u
Upstate +12 (-120) .5u
Georgetown -7 (120) .5u
East Carolina +5 .5u
North Carolina -6 .5u

8pt, three team tease, tie is a push

AL +10 (looking to middle this at the half)
St. Pete's +19.5
Lamar +3.5  1u

Some basic plays today for the "early season" which will end this weekend.  It's been fun but in non - Mountain West plays I am basically treading water. 

Irvine should be a bit better, Wise is a real player, and Navy doesn't have ANY of those.

PSU is a play on team with a great player in battle.  Not sure why they took the foot off the gas last game as they were up 11 at the break and then only won by 9, but with the smaller number I expect them to cover.  Fairfield is not half bad and I have actually watched a few of their games last season.  Still, they stunk against a bad Rutgers team, just think battle has his way today as Fairfield will have no answer.

Cle St., Lafayette lost it's two most important players, forwards Gradnigo and taylor.  They took a lot of shots last year.  The weight will fall to David perez according to KP.  They look to be worse.Nmst dropped 92 on em in the opener, and Creighton, whose D is not as good as Clst, held them to 58 in 67 possessions. 

Upstate is simply a degen Kenpom play.  It is half right now and looks like... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 17, 2010 02:38 PM

Bandos Wednesday "is it still early season?" plays

YTD:

25-23, 3-2-1 middle/2h, 1-2 ml, +3.1 u
Mountain West record: 2-1, 1-0ml +2.1u (maybe I just stick to this soon)

Last night is why everything is a unit or under.  I havent' seen or followed these teams closely and am largely going on KP, BR, and some on the forum that I will follow.  I have had one 2 unit play so far, and plan to keep it that way for a while.

Played:

Loyola Marymount +6 (-120) 1u

Read GH's write-up, but Bradley is getting killed on the boards right now.

Pennsylvania -4 (-120) 1u

Manhattan returns very little, Penn returns 92% of its O.  Classic early season play.  Wanna know the X and O - check out Dmon's thread

Delaware +6 (-120) 1u

Returns 96% of O, 86% of D, Cornell only 17% returning.  I really like this DE team at home, not sold on them on the road, but due to Cornell's run last year there is great value in this line.

Also looked at Drake and Belmont.  But it is time to limit plays and these three were best.

Mountain West Games:  Lost with WY last night, won with SDS+4.5 and ml.

Last night observations:
SDS looked VERY GOOD.  the Zags were no slouches, 2 7 footers, Gray was on fire, but the offensive rebounding was incredible to watch - I totally did not mean to stay awake til 1am but I couldn't stop watching.  Whenever the zags made a little run, SDS would respond.  Poise has always been questionable for this te... [More]

Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 11:54 PM

Tuesday's MOUNTAIN WEST games

Decided to start a new thread.  Aside from SDS which I have decided is a winner, I want to get started breaking down these games.  Once the next week is over I will largely limit myself to the MW and WAC, so I am looking to get as much "homer" knowledge about these teams and the conferences as possible.

SMU @ TCU -8

first glance lean, TCU

SMU has already shat themselves at home against ALR.  They have a good Big Man in Papa Dia (hard to bet against any team with a guy with that name) but not much else. A rookie, 5' 10' PG, Samarippas will be counted upon.  Is this the all name team or what?  Blue Ribbon gives the front court a B+, but the backcourt a C, predictably.  Predicted by KP to finish dead last in CUSA, pre-season rank 177.  Blue Ribbon is a bit kinder - having them finish ahead of Tulane.  SMU is taking a step back from respectability.

TCU is described by BP as "unathletic."  Ouch.  Backcourt gets a B, but the frontcourt gets a D.  Ouch, again.  The 2 juniors in the backcourt look good, with returner, and 4th MW leading scorer Ronnie West.

Seems the only angle here is the better, more experienced backcourt of TCU.  However, Dia may have his way inside with the undersized forwards and inexperienced big men of TCU.

Gotta PASS here.  If TCU can get hot from outside they can cover this large number.  SMU has looked horrid so far but no team is as good or b... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 10, 2010 11:00 PM

Mountain West

Due to MW channel, I find myself watching a lot of Co st vs AF, and cringing

After the early season, I intend to stick to this conference mostly.  I have no rooting interest and I reaqlize I simply do not have the time to cap 'em all (tho I will always look for good spots elsewhere)  Cgonzo was a MW guy last year and have seen him around a little.  Hope to get others in here talk these games over.

Friday we get, with KP line
Fresno @ BYU -24
UC riverside @ UNLV -30
Jackson St @ TCU -9 (tho may have no line)


Posted Friday, November 05, 2010 08:05 AM

Bandos useful tidbit #1

Just came across this in Kenpom's blog.

"Research I did for College Basketball Prospectus 2008-09 showed that a team that beats an opponent at home by 10-19 points ends up losing the re-match against the same opponent about half the time."


Posted Tuesday, February 09, 2010 12:52 PM

Colorado St. looks good Tuesday

YTD: 19-14-1
Last: Push with La Tech +2

Today's game: Colorado St -2 at Air Force

Co ST beat AF by 22 already this year at home.  I have watched both teams play and they are certainly heading in different directions.  Co St is coming off 2 nice wins, Utah and a dismantling of a WY team in disarray.  Air force has only beaten WY in conference.  Was the 22pt win a fluke?  No.  

Air force, with the exception of going 4-11 from the line, well below season avg. of 70%, actually shot the ball well.  They hit 40% of their 3 balls (season avg 32%) and 43% from 2 (season avg 39%).  The extra 4 free throws they should have made would have meant losing by only 18.  

Is AF being at home gonna matter?  Not really.  Their home shooting avg is actually a bit worse from 3 and the line, and only slightly better from 2.

Did Co ST shoot above their avg?  Yup.  2 pt/ 3 pt/ft.  last game 52/37/60.  Season avg 44/32/65.  Away avg 39/32/70.  Will they shoot that well again?  Probably not, but it should be close as AF has the 249th ranked defense allowing 1.05 pts per possession.
 
The real story of this game was the rebound (28/23 co st) and the TO (18/9 Co st) margins.  Will that continue?  Should.  One of two things Co St does well is clean up the defensive glass (24th in the nation allowing only 28% offensive rebounds)  AF is particula... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 03, 2009 01:03 AM

Cincinnati/S. Florida writeup

First posted play:

Cincinnati -3

Cincy seems to be an enigma this year as they have beaten some good teams (WV, ND, GTOWN) but lost to the other best teams in the Big East, as well as two bad losses to the Friars.  They looked like crap against Syracuse.  They have taken care of business so far against the soft underbelly of St Johns, Rutgers, and Depaul.  So I tried to figure out why they beat Gtown twice, WV and ND.  The answer seems to be PACE.  The teams that they lose too play a very up tempo game, whereas the the teams they beat play a much slower paced game (exception being ND)  Look at the rankings by possessions per game and the lower half are the teams that Cincy beats.  Providence, a roughly equally matched team by all power rankings crushed them.

So where is South Florida?  The slowest pace team in the Big East.  The total is set at 121.5 for a reason.  This game will be lucky to get to 62 possessions - and that is just like Cincy likes it.  Add in postseason factors and I liie the Bearcats to win on the road comfortably.


Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2009 09:17 AM

Tuesday 1/27 Injury Thread

It's maddening to have to look through all these threads with a pick and no explanation to try and find some relevent info on injuries.  Guys are on blogs, all over the country and know their teams.  Let's try to centralize it.

Here are the injuries I am concerned about and what I know about them. Add other injury updates and info please.

Purdue: Hummel is not practicing but he is playing limited minutes.  How much will Purdue get out of him tonight

Southern Miss: I read that 2 guys might not play, but no mention of who.  As the 5 starters for southern miss account for almost 90% of the minutes, it's kinda important.