Posted Monday, February 06, 2012 10:23 AM
What happened to Tom Brady? It wasn't the Giants Defense that beat him yesterday, not one bit. Tom Brady showed us that he is human, that he makes mistakes, that he is an aging Vet. He always reminded me of Derek Jeter, saying the right thing, and acting the right way in front of the camera; most importantly being CLUTCH. Yesterday Brady showed us that just like Jeter he isn't perfect, isn't always clutch, and is on the decline of an illustrious career.
Tom Brady checked out in the biggest game of the year. Sometimes I wondered if Tom actually just closed his eyes and chucked the ball down the field like a young Eli use to do to Plaxico and Tyree. The physical tools are still there, but mentally from the preparation to split second decisions I don't it anymore from Brady.
I know Tom will bounce back and make a few more runs, but is this the beginning of the end for "Captain America" ?
Posted Monday, January 09, 2012 08:21 PM
Bama -2 (1.5 units)
This is my "opening day". I typically start off the wagering season with the BCS NC Game and usually stop sometime around the MLB playoffs/World Series. After a very profitable season last year starting with Auburn, then the Mavs, and grinding out the bases, I have been waiting for this day for a long time. I don't mess with the NFL or College football during the regular season because I personally can't find a trend.
As for this game: I was at the first match up, it started off as a nice sunny day in T Town, the sun went down and it got in the 30's with the wind howling. Nick Saban made some terrible calls, didn't trust his team, and the 2 kickers for Bama were terrible. Their long distance kicker was even worse finishing the year something like 2/11 ish. Can't trust that kid, but the Tide won't need to, I see them winning this game convincingly. Pulling away at the end to win by 10.
The game will be close for 3 quarters, but Trent will run like a beast, a young Stephen Jackson, following his blockers and stiff arming people in the face. Nick Saban will not lose to the same team/coach twice in one year, he will have a scheme that is superior and will confuse the heck out of both LSU QB's. Bama has the best defense in college in 50 years, a serious revenge factor, a better coach, a better team, and the line is moving in our favor. Public is all over LSU and the o... [More]
Posted Thursday, August 25, 2011 01:06 PM
+9.99 units last week
+1.22 units this week
Under -9.5 (Even)
I like Oakland in this game, but can not bet against the pinstripes.
Harden shuts down the Yanks, and Phil is unpredictable. Look up all the advanced stats, I can't list them I am working. Good luck guys.
A 5-4 game wins the under for 1 unit.
Posted Wednesday, August 24, 2011 02:42 PM
+60 units: Season (+/- 4 units) +9.99 units: last week+2.50 units: week to date
REDS -113 (2 Units)
Well this one is for you 7257Melrose, just for telling me that this game "screams" Marlins. Well I'm here to tell YOU my research tells another story. The outcome is unknown, but I will take my chances on the big red machine with a full and healthy lineup, vs Javy "junk" Vasquez and a limited and beat up Fish team.
The current Reds lineup has seen Javy a lot. This boy has been around the block and back, everyone knows Javy's stuff. He won't be fooling anyone today at 4pm ET. The 2 power hitter for the Reds are Lefties and the Righties- Ramon Hernandez, Renteria, and Philips have seen him 67 times total.
The Fish are dismal right now. If by slight chance they get a lead, they blow it. The team is "reeling" pun intended, and without Sanchez and Ramirez in the lineup, I don't see them out scoring the Reds. Additionally, there is an element of surprise, Homer Bailey has only faced this Fish lineup for a couple AB's each with their best hitters this afternoon, Stanton and Morrison having 2 AB's vs him. Homer shuts down Righties which make up 80% of the Fish team, the left side worries me with Dobbs going 3/4 last time head to head. Homer lets up .75 HR/9 against Righties strikes out close to 7 per/9 from both sides, with a 3.50 FIP vs Righties. Gota go back to work, done listing stats. Win or lo... [More]
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 08:12 PM
Last week +9.99 units
Texas -146 (1 unit)
This is a Bedard fade. There are many respected cappers on the under in this one, but I see Texas getting to Erik early and often. When Bedard throws over a 100 pitches (threw ~102 last time out) he typically has command issues the next outing. I see him being pulled in the 4th-5th. Additionally Texas has seen him so many times with all their big guns having 10-15 at bats with great success, I think there is a big time pitching advantage, hitting advantage, home field advantage. With the revamped bull pen (Arthur Rhodes is gone and now is STL's problem) Texas is going to make another run at the AL title.
Boston is spent tonight. They have only Gonzalez and Crawford who can cause trouble in the line-up and CJ owns Crawford, Gonzo has hit CJ hard but the sample size is small and I will take my chances with a lefty vs lefty match up as the only real battle this game.
Texas should take this one easily, but anything can happen. Appreciate any discussion.
Posted Sunday, August 21, 2011 06:55 PM
+7.9 units this week. Lets keep the streak rolling.
Cardinals -136 (1 unit)
This is a Rodrigo Lopez fade, he is allowing .309 vs right handed bats and .271 vs lefties. Against the Cards Lopez has an 11.81 ERA, and the entire cards lineup has seen him on average of 10 times each. Lopez doesn't go past the 5th typically, and the Cubs pen is a joke, one of the worst in the game. The over could be a play here, but the Cards on Sunday nights have been money all year and there is no need. Cards typically cover the over in the 5-8th innings, but will just play the ML tonight, not in an Over kind of mood today.
Posted Wednesday, August 17, 2011 10:01 PM
I am up 4 units this week. 5 units last week. Probably 50 overall for the season. I will warn you all that my posted pics don't fare that well, I just work too much and don't post as much as I would like. Back to the basics of managing risk and profitability.
Been riding CJ all year. He talked a lot of trash b4 last game in Oakland, but he backed it up. Texas could easily lose tonight because they are very hot and are due to cool down, but at these short odds, and with LAA slumping offense it is a no brainer for me. Not much risk, no juice, I see Texas out-scoring the Angels. Thats what it comes down too, who will score more runs.
Santana this year has a 8.18 era vs Tex, has given up 18 hits and 10 Earned this year. The whole Texas lineup crushes him, except Hamilton, who can get hot at anytime.
I know Izturis and Kendrick on LAA have hit CJ decent this year, but his last outing in LA he had a 0.00 era went 8 innings and gave up maybe 2 hits or so.
Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 01:01 PM
The lines are very sharp today. These are the kind of days that get people in trouble because average betters aren't comfortable taking dogs and the JUICE is very high.
Posted Friday, August 12, 2011 03:00 PM
Ricky is overrated in my book and the Phish are bad a home. If for some reason Ricky does pitch well, the under is decent hedge. I don't know why the books always give Ricky so much love at home.
Guna pull the trigger later, but curious what you all think?
Posted Wednesday, August 10, 2011 03:26 PM
After a 2 week break to let the markets cool down and digest. I am 2-0 this week (Rats Monday and A Town last night). Lines are still very inflated and very sharp, but there is value hidden, with tight risk management being the key. I was up about 47 units, and dropped 3.5 units and 3.75 units both of the weeks up until the hiatus. Found myself doing too many parlays and pressing -1.5 RL's. Luckily it was only a sight set back and not anything to blow me out. 1-2 units per game is what saved me during the losing streak.
Back to the basics. Back to making money: 1 unit each game.
Philly and LA both have big time ground ball pitchers throwing tonight. LA is dreadful at offense, and Philly is average. With 8 needed to lose I see a push at 7 as the worst case scenario.
I love Toronto at home vs Oakland. Toronto is a tough AL East team at home that can really smack the ball. Oakland is horrible on the road and in general. I will take the jays with these short odds at home all day. Not much risk here.
Posted Saturday, July 30, 2011 10:09 AM
They have a HUGE PITCHING advantage in EVERY category and ADVANCED category , HUGE pen advantage, hopefully their bats wake up today. Carlos Beltran maybe?
Reds are pesky at home but that's why they are favored. I see real value here.
Have a great Saturday
Posted Monday, July 25, 2011 12:49 PM
Magic Monday. Make Money Monday. To all you Monday haters, start cheering up or change your path in life. You will be dead soon, so enjoy the time you have on this earth.
2 TEAM PARLEY, PAYS CLOSE TO EVEN MONEY
PHILLIES | REDSOX ML
2 UNITS TO WIN 1.85 UNITS
Phillies are hitting over .300 vs Harang, Harang is much worse on the road. RedSox are RedHot at the plate, look for lester to shut down KC.
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 01:08 PM
Last week +7.3 unitsThis week -3.1 units.
I have made most of my money this year taking odds that are close to a pick, throwing in the strategic square play of -130 to -150 and hitting at a good percentage. Yanks last night got me, but CC let up 2 runs so I can live with the outcome. Texas yesterday got me, but they as well only let up 1 run so I can live with that. The Mets yesterday got me, and I can't live with making that big of a mistake. Muts were playing decent ball the last 2 games, were stacked in the lineup with lefties, and for some dumb reason thought they could out hit the red birds
I like Houston at this price vs Crazy Eyes Carlos. Houston is on a roll and Cubs are going the other way.. I think Norris will keep the game close and we will have a shot in the late innings to squeeze one out. There are many X factors, including both pitchers, both offenses, the weather, an angry coach etc..
Carlos coming off the DL was bad, and today there is a good chance he is bad again giving the 'Stros a window to pounce if Norris can give us a quality start.
5-4 Houston... [More]
Posted Monday, July 18, 2011 02:54 PM
+7.34 units last week
(1-2 units per play as always)
Make Money Monday is here
Washington Nationals -110 1 unit
Marquis is just a much better pitcher than Lyles, who is not use to
throwing this many innings. Lyles has TERRIBLE advanced stats, throws a
ton of pitches every game, has had 10 days off which makes me think he
will be rusty, lets up a TON of fly balls, and this young kid is
probably winding down for the year.
I like the Nats and Marquis to get back on track tonight at this
affordable price. Marquis, will most likely keep his team in the game,
and I look for the Nats to get to Houston early and often.
Posted Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:24 AM
American League +107
This makes no sense. At worst it should be a pick or -110 each. The American League is so much better it is scary. Okay the National league has Doc, but he hasn't been invincible this year. I see the AL winning the 9th time out of the last 11 years. At plus money this is a steal.
Leaning over in that dry desert...
Posted Saturday, July 09, 2011 05:37 PM
Life is filled with tough decisions. When having a hard time deciding what you should do or say, ask yourself what would Derek Jeter do.
Before you say something publicly, before you get to work, before you talk to a girl, before you react to adversity, just think of what good old DJ would do.
Derek is never in the tabloids, never in trouble, he just comes to work everyday, takes care of business and is a true professional.
5 for 5 today with a home run for his 3,000th hit, and the game winning RBI as icing on the cake. Current reigning and 5 time gold glove short stop, career .312 average, World Series MVP, and 5 time World Champion. New York Yankee Captain and American Icon.
Posted Thursday, June 30, 2011 11:02 AM
Redsox, Yankees, Detroit
0.75Units to win 2.75Units
Got beat up yesterday. Down 3.3 units for the week.
I will fight to get back to even b4 the weekend. Then try to go positive this weekend.
Posted Wednesday, June 29, 2011 07:05 PM
NYY/MIL OVER 9 (1 unit)
Rockies over 9 (BO Tail, 1.5 units)
+0.54 Units for the week
I love betting the Yanks at home when the total is 9 or under. This number leaves so many chances for a winner, and at worse you are looking at a 5-4 push. AJ is erratic and will most likely let up 3-4, the pen will probably let up 1-2. Milwaukee will have their hands full with the patient veteran lineup of NY that will make them pay for any mistakes tonight.
Any inning an A-Bomb can go off, expect one tonight to right center in the 3rd.
Posted Wednesday, June 29, 2011 02:38 PM
The King is back to throwing darts. He had all of his pitches working last game. Look up all the stats you want, I did, but would rather talk about qualitative factors, I leave the quant stuff to king Bodio.
Lowe had another bad outing last game and I see Seattle avoiding the home sweep, with Felix going 8 strong. This Seattle team is going to battle D Lowe and chip away 3-4 runs. Felix should hold ATL in the 2-3 range. Looking for a 4-3 win for Seattle. Call it a square play, call it a great play, but I would rather spend my $ on the reigning Cy Young winner, then fade the Mighty Yankees at home
Yesterdays winners: (Minny 2 units per Bodio, SFO 1.5 units)Yesterdays losers: (none, pushed the Tampa Under)
I am up 2.05 Units for the week. Looking to build on this today and hit my target of 5-10 units per week. Last week we finished flat, so this week it's time to make a run. Just about halfway home, would like to finish this weeks earnings b4 the holiday weekend. Southampton on the private jet... here I come to celebrate America's birthday
Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 08:52 PM
Don't fade the Yankees at home. I am not saying to lay the huge juice of -150 to -200, because I sure as hell don't. But if you want to be around in the long run, you need to have rules. 1 rule should be not to get sucked into the "value trap" betting against the yanks or redsox at home because you see +150 to +175 as "value". There is no value there...
On the road, versus a young gas thrower like Cueto is when you take your shots, against a guy they never seen before that can throw hard strikes. Chances are they will be underdogs or if they have their #1 or #2 going should be close to a pick.
I don't want people to think I'm hating or a serious homer, I just want people to understand risk: on any inning of any game an A-Bomb can go off and ruin your bet. Why take the chance?
I didn't have them tonight, and don't bet on them much unless I'm being stupid. I usually take the runline if I do, because if they win it is usually by more than 1, and if they lose you save yourself a good 40%.
Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 01:03 AM
Tuesday, June 28th: 1.5 units
Giants -128 ( VOGELSONG -R / D DAVIS -L )
I still can't sleep from the Rockies game this afternoon. Jim Tracy killed the hopes of all the 1H U 6.5 backers. He could have pulled the plug way earlier, and not only kept his team in the game, but kept our wager alive as well.
Finished the day -1.38 units. won with cincy, atlanta, and lost with a first inning no score bet on the braves/mariners. That meatball served up by Bedard was like a slap in the face after the Rockies fiasco.
Regardless, a new day starts tomorrow, after one of the worst days in a while there is only a small loss to show for it. We live to fight tomorrow:
Starting the day off with the Giants for many reasons regarding their starting pitcher and their pen, and love fading Dougie Fresh. I hope this game doesn't turn into a slug fest because SFO has no shot at keeping up. We need Vogelsong to go 7 and let the pen take over and dominate like they can. Advantage Giants in everything except hitting. Can good pitching beat good hitting, we will see.
Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 11:49 AM
Finished last week even money after staging a comeback Saturday and Sunday. Thank you to Bodio .
Rockies/Cubs 1H Under 6.5
Rockies/Cubs Under 11.5
Chacin and Garza both have the ability to go 5-6 innings of 2-3 run ball, and both have the ability to throw quality starts. Love the 1H play. The pens are what scare me making me hesitate on the large number of 11.5. 12 runs total to lose the bet is a nice cushion for a Rockies team that play great defense, Cubs on the other hand don't. Waiting for the lineups to come out, but I see a few runs of value here.
Posted Sunday, June 26, 2011 05:08 PM
Down 1 unit for the week and looking to make a play tonight.
Has anybody REALLY broken down and capped the Marlins/Mariners or Giants/Indians games?
I just jumped out of an airplane with my GF today 15,000 feet....now that is F'ing rush
Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 01:54 PM
I just started posting now that I am comfortable with Cover, so my pre-posting record doesn't really matter to anyone. If interested, I am up 30-40 units YTD. I bet 1-2 units per game, nothing fancy. I will tally everything up and put it on a spreadsheet this weekend. I am completely transparent, every bet is 1 unit unless noted.
This week: 10-6-1 for +0.95 Units.
New York Yankees -137
AJ has struck out 8 batters the last 2 games respectively and I look for him to go 7 innings today, with a well rested pen to cover the 8th and 9th. Robbie, Swish, Tex, and Grandy can switch to the left side and pound Jimenez. Anything added from nunez and A-Rod is a plus from the right side.
Atlanta Braves -104
I see the Padres regressing and having a let down after a tough hard fought battle in Bean Town (the shittiest city in the world). If Lowe can keep the ball in the park, we have a shot to win this one 3-2, maybe 4-2. LVL is on this game so it makes me feel a little better and pushed me over the edge to play A town.
Barbosa 212Captain, New York YankeesChief Investment Officer Chief Risk officer
Posted Thursday, June 23, 2011 11:18 AM
Yesterday the night games ate up all my winnings and I finished the day -.95 Units. Man Jose Reyes is back in all star form...that kid opened my wallet and took the money right out. Back to flat for the week.
ON TO TODAY: 1 unit each
1H SEA -1/2 (+120)
1H U 3.5 SEA vs WAS (Even)
I love Pineda. look up all the stats you want. This kid is going to be one of the best in the game very soon. Seattle avoids the sweep in a pitchers duel. I see a 3-2. 4-3. type game. Don't trust either bull pen, so I am sticking with the 1H Under.