Here is a formula for getting a -1 Run Line:
Say the Money line is -190
Take 100/190 = 0.53
take the 0.53 and add 1 = 1.53
then take the 1.53 and divide it again.. 100/1.53 = 65.39
now 65.39 is what you are going to risk on the ML... what ever the payout
of that, you take that and risk it on the RL
and thats how you get the -1 RL
Today's Example:
St. Louis -220 ML
100/220 = .4545
100/1.45 = 68.96
Risk $68.96 on the -220 ML to win $31.35
Risk $31.35 on the +103 -1.5 RL to win $32.29
If St. Louis wins by 1, you push by winning $31.35 on the ML
but losing $31.35 on the -1.5 RL.
If St. Louis wins by two or more, you win $63.64 on a $100
risk which is like a ML -158.
Basically, whatever you would
win on the ML, you risk that on the RL -1.5 and if your team wins by 1 you push
and if your team wins by 2 or more you will win more than the ML payout but a
little less than the RL -1.5 payout. Of course, you can lose both, but the above
formula reduces the amount you would have bet on the ML -220 and puts some on
the RL -1.5.
Sure you can risk
less and win more by just taking the -1.5 RL, but we see how many games end up
by one run - especially home teams. St. Louis, Cubbies and Colorado yesterday.
It sure is
enticing to be offered the favored team and better pitcher, the home crowd AND some +
juice. But that -1.5 is the great equalizer.
I'd like to find a
trend or formula for picking the best
RLs.
GL