The UFC 102 fight card is something special. It’ll give us something we fight fans haven’t seen much of lately: upsets. UFC 100 and 101 were exciting but somewhat predictable, as favorites like St-Pierre, Lesnar, Penn and Silva performed as advertised. Looking at the five fights on the UFC 102 main card, however, I see at least four upsets in the cards. Let’s examine the upset extravaganza known as UFC 102.

Note the absence of Marquardt/Maia, as a win for either guy wouldn’t really be an “upset” in that closely matched fight.

Randy Couture (16-9) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1)

Favorite: Couture -180

WHY COUTURE IS THE FAVORITE: He’s a big name, an American hero-type who has beaten some big, big men. Also, some online betting sharps probably didn’t like what they saw from Nogueira when he got his clocked cleaned by Frank Mir last December.

WHY NOGUEIRA WILL PULL OFF THE UPSET: When he lost to Mir, he was recovering from a staph infection and hospital visit 20 days earlier. He deserves a mulligan. He’s also 13 years younger than Randy and has a much stronger chin. He can win via knockout or submission, and that versatility gives him an advantage.

Keith Jardine (14-5-1) vs Thiago Silva (13-1)

Favorite: Jardine -160

WHY JARDINE IS THE FAVORITE: Beats me. I guess he’s the bigger “name,” having beaten Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell. You could also argue that Silva failed his one and only test against a truly good fighter in his career when Lyoto Machida knocked him out.

WHY SILVA WILL PULL OFF THE UPSET: He’s exactly the type of fighter that destroys Jardine. Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander are aggressive Muay Thai strikers who both overwhelmed Jardine and knocked him out in less than a minute. Silva’ style is the same, so why wouldn’t he do the same to Jardine?

Chris Leben (18-5) vs Jake Rosholt (5-1)

Favorite: Leben -155

WHY LEBEN IS THE FAVORITE: He’s a “name” who fought on the reality series and has faced the likes of Anderson Silva and Bisping. Not that he beat those guys, of course.

WHY ROSHOLT WILL PULL OFF THE UPSET: It’s simply poor betting management to pick Leben, a smallish middleweight at 5’11” who always loses to lanky, rangy fighters. The 6’1” Rosholt fits the bill of guys who manhandle Leben. He’ll ride his reach advantage to glory.

Brandon Vera (10-3) vs Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1)

Favorite: Vera -180

WHY VERA IS THE FAVORITE: He’s a “toolsy” fighter with appealing knockout power and a brash demeanor that makes him somewhat larger than life. Also, Soszynski is a replacement for injured Matt Hamill and replacement fighters often get the rep of “not deserving to be there.”

WHY SOSZYNSKI WILL PULL OFF THE UPSET: I think he’ll want it more. Vera talks a big game but still doesn’t train as hard as he should. Soszynski is a hard-working guy who keeps improving and has won six straight fights. I could see him turning the sports picks on their heads and submitting Vera.