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And Then There Were Eight: Forecasting the Stanley Cup odds

By BetOnline | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, April 30, 2009 02:22 PM   0 comments

More so than basketball betting, which is usually predictable (save for this season), hockey betting is an interesting beast, particularly in the playoffs. Some teams are pleasant surprises, more put-together than expected, while others are disappointments, Stanley Cup odds contenders that fell flat on their faces. Let’s forecast the remaining sportsbook chances of each squad.

ANAHEIM DUCKS
Stanley Cup odds: +650

Is it just me or do those puck betting odds look pretty damn generous for a team about to face the Red Wings? Sportsbook oddsmakers are hopping on the Ducks odds bandwagon after they broke San Jose’s heart, but the defending champs aren’t chokers. The Ducks’ savvy really shone through in round one and Ryan Getzlaf is a world-class player, but the Ducks don’t have the horses to run with Detroit.

NHL betting forecast: I just can’t see the Ducks surviving round two, even if Jonas Hiller stands on his head again. Avoid them, especially since they don’t even offer good sportsbook value.

BOSTON BRUINS
Stanley Cup odds: +300

Here’s a team that really turned heads in round one of the NHL playoff hockey lines. Sure, the Bruins were a No. 1 seed, but most people betting online expected them to show growing pains in a long series with the Habs. Instead, they looked absolutely dominant and built for the playoffs. Their size and physicality at all positions, not to mention Tim Thomas’ steady play in goal, make them the total package.

NHL betting forecast: Don’t look now, but the Big, Bad Bruins are suddenly the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference.

CAROLINA HURRICANES
Stanley Cup odds: +1200

How about that sportsbook value? Here’s a team that looks exactly like the Stanley Cup odds champion of three years ago, yet it’s getting less respect than the Hatton odds at the sportsbook right now. Carolina measures up to Boston up front and may have the goaltending edge with Cam Ward unconscious right now.

NHL betting forecast: the ’Canes should push Boston hard but their lack of defensive depth should stop them from going deep in the playoffs since all the remaining Eastern offenses are so potent.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Stanley Cup odds: +600

Like the Bruins, the Hawks are ahead of schedule. Everyone knows they’re a great team, with skill at every position, but they showed surprising maturity in dousing the Calgary Flames. Their great blueline depth is vital for them to succeed in the Blackhawks vs Canucks odds.

NHL betting forecast: The Hawks are like Bruins odds Lite in that they have the talent to win it all but still probably have to take their lumps on the way. Even if they get past the Canucks, Detroit would be waiting in the, er, Wings, so the Hawks odds to win the Stanley Cup are a longshot.

DETROIT RED WINGS
Stanley Cup odds: +175

The Red Wings odds are the best and the oddsmakers are completely justified there. Remember, this is essentially last year’s championship team PLUS more experience PLUS Marian Hossa. Even Chris Osgood got his act together in round one against Columbus.

NHL betting forecast: In the West, I think Roberto Luongo and the Canucks are the only team that could really threaten Detroit at any point. Whoever comes out of the East will push the Wings to six or seven games in the final, but the Wings odds to win the Stanley Cup look very good. They should pull it off.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Stanley Cup odds: +525

Their trade-deadline acquisitions and new head coach continue to lead their rejuvenation after midseason struggles and Marc-Andre Fleury is playing the kind of hockey he needs to for Pittsburgh to succeed in the Penguins vs Capitals odds, which should be a treat to watch.

NHL betting forecast: I still like them to reach the Stanley Cup betting final again. The swagger is back in their step, they’re experienced, and they have the edge over Washington in goaltending. Getting past the Bruins in the East final will threaten the Penguins odds, though.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Stanley Cup odds: +500

Talk about a wild card. The sportsbook heroes of the second half look like a mature team that wants to win it all. Their penalty killing is superb and everyone knows how special Roberto Luongo is. The Sedins are playing their best hockey now and need to keep that up for the Canucks odds to stay alive.

NHL betting forecast: As much hype as the Sharks got, I always saw Vancouver as the real team on a collision course with Detroit. Toppling the Wings is unlikely but I think Vancouver would win it all if it could get past the Wings.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Stanley Cup odds: +500

You have to love these guys. Few teams bring fans to their feet in NHL betting like Ovechkin and the Caps, and they really found themselves after a rough start against the Rangers, winning four of the last five games in their series. You just never know how far they can get when their top line is clicking.

NHL betting forecast: They’re a team you want to see win, but it’s time to jump off the Capitals odds bandwagon, Their blueline isn’t physical enough and their remaining possible opponents are more complete (not to mention grittier) teams. Round two should be their last this season in puck betting.

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