Game-day:  7/31/2009

First-pitch:  8:10 pm est.

The Los Angeles Angels are back atop the A.L. West Division, where some believe they belong, after winning 8 out of their last 10 games.  Three of those wins came against the team they face on Friday night, the Minnesota Twins.  The Angels, ranked 2nd in the BetUS online MLB Power Rankings (link to power rankings article), send pitcher Ervin Santana to the mound.  Santana has had some major issues this year as evidenced by his 3 and 6 record, 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

The Twins counter Santana with pitcher Nick Blackburn.  Blackburn has been decent for Minnesota with an 8 and 5 record, a 3.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

Here is the BetUS online sportsbook betting line for this game.
 
Los Angeles Angels
Ervin Santana – R               +1 ½ -145      + 140  O 10 -105       O/U 4 -130/Ev
 
Minnesota Twins
Nick Blackburn – R             -1 ½ +125      -160    U 10 -115       O/U 5 -120/-110
 
Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.
 
The Los Angeles Angels are 13 and 3 in their last 16 games on the road.

The Los Angeles Angels are 5 and 2 in Ervin Santana’s last 7 games on the road.

The Minnesota Twins are 12 and 1 in Nick Blackburn’s last 13 starts as the favorite at home.

The Minnesota Twins are 0 and 5 in Nick Blackburn’s last 5 starts versus a team from the American League West.
 

Blackburn has been hot but he hasn’t been hot against teams from the A.L. West.  Santana has been awful, but he hasn’t been awful lately on the road.

There are some contrasting trends in this game.  What isn’t contrasting is the fact that the Angels just beat the Twins three out of four last week, or the fact that Nick Blackburn is 0 and 3 with a 5.82 ERA in 5 career starts against the Angels.

Then again, Blackburn has a fantastic 2.67 ERA and is 5 and 0 this year in the Metrodome.

Santana just lost to Minnesota this past Sunday.  The Twins best player, catcher Joe Mauer, is 8 for 15 for a .533 batting average against Minnesota.

Santana just doesn’t have it this year and he definitely doesn’t against the Twins.  He’s doing okay right now with the Angels winning 5 out of their last 7 games on the road when he's on the mound, but facing Blackburn in the Metrodome is a recipe for disaster.

I’m gong to ride Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins in this game.  I’ll be the Blackburn and the Twins on the run line at -1 ½ +125.