The NBA rookie class has an obvious and immediate effect on their team. The NFL rookie class don’t necessarily get to shine that much…unless they’re named Adrian Peterson (and play for the Vikings).
The standard expectations are simple: Quarterbacks and receivers take three years to develop. Defensive linemen take two seasons to adjust, while linebackers can have immediate effects. Running-backs are the only offensive players that can step in and play big-time off the cuff. Meanwhile, offensive linemen get lost in the shuffle unless they’re so bad that they put themselves on the “bust” radar. Yes, Robert Gallery, I’m talking about you.
So who’s in and on the way up? Who came in to soon? Which fantasy football picks should draft high? They’re right here.
(nb – Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, all the receivers and Ray Rice got a free pass because nobody expects much from them. Aside from Stewart, they won’t get the playing time to blow up)
STUDS
Darren McFadden (RB) – Oakland Raiders
McFadden is projected for nearly 900 yards and 7 touchdowns this season, along with a few catches. At Arkansas he was one of the best players in the country, despite the futility of his team. The Raiders have an amazing run-block scheme that allowed an above average speedster (Justin Fargas) to become an elite back last season. Imagine what the Raiders are capable of with an athlete like McFadden?
If the Raiders have any chance of turning around a 6-10 ATS NFL betting season, McFadden is the pivot. The name of the game in the bay is going to be “Run! Run! Run!” and McFadden, Fargas and Michael Bush will be punishing opponents in to the ground. If it’s a tight spread, I love the Raiders at home this season.
Sedrick Ellis (DT) – New Orleans Saints
Ellis is the perfect compliment of Will Smith and Charles Grant. The Saints were 2-9 ATS when favored by 8 or more last season, and allowed a sickly 102.9 rushing yards per game while failing to thwart quarterback attempts via the defensive line. Ellis will eat up so much space in the middle that offensive line coaches will have nightmares trying to gameplan against Grant and Smith. Sacks galore abound in the Big Easy. And Ellis will be showered with praise because of it.
Rashard Mendenhall (RB) – Pittsburgh Steelers
Perhaps the biggest cog in the wheel of Pittsburgh’s new, offense-heavy gameplan is the acquisition of Mendenhall from Illinois. The Steelers were already one of the best rushing teams in the league, and now they add a bruising crasher that will help them improve on a dangerous 135.25 yards on the ground per game. Can he do it without Faneca, who now blocks in New York for Brett Favre? That remains to be seen.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB) – Arizona Cardinals
While the Cardinals will continue their struggles, especially if Anquan Boldin gets traded, Rodgers-Cromartie will continue to impress. The athletic corner will only make a defense that ranked 28th in passing defense better. It was a need by the Cardinals that they immediately addressed. Smart decision by management overall. It simply makes the Cardinals a safer play next season.
DUDS
Chris Johnson (RB) – Tennessee Titans
The obvious scapegoat for the Titans’ upcoming woes will be Johnson. In a backfield polluted with underachieving athletes, Johnson will be the straw. The camel’s back will be the patience of the fans. The Titans were 8-8 ATS against the spread last season, and Johnson simply isn’t the athlete to improve the offense.
Why am I so hard on him? Because Johnson was a waster first round pick. Why am I so excited? Because Tennessee is becoming the same type of team the Detroit became when it was thirsty for receivers over the previous six drafts.
Glenn Dorsey (DT) – Kansas City Chiefs
It’s not that Dorsey isn’t a monster, because he clearly is. It has more to do with the fact that KC is so abysmal that we simply can’t expect much from the big dog from LSU. Kansas City was 28th overall in rushing defense, allowing 130.6 yards per game against on the ground. Unless Dorsey gets them in to the top-5 this season, his first season is going to be full of growing pains. Dud this year. Stud years two through five.
Matt Ryan (QB) – Atlanta Falcons
The rebuilding project in Atlanta is even too big for this Golden Eagle to rise above. Atlanta was a simply awful team last season, explaining why they took him at third overall in the NFL draft. Any smart betting investor will stay away from the Falcons this season. They were 8-8 ATS last season, and if Matt Ryan is going to play like the rumors suggest, it will affect his psyche for years to come. If the Falcons aren’t willing to protect their top prospect this season and decide to play him, the Falcons won’t be able to protect your betting dollar either.