The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 SU, 3-1-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U), have won three straight games in the BetUS Sportsbook after dropping their season opener and are looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the NFC.
The Denver Broncos, (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 4-0-0 O/U), got off to a solid 3-0 start before falling to the lowly Kansas City Chiefs 33-19 on Sunday.
Now the teams hook up in a contest that should reveal a lot about both teams.
The Broncos used a powerful offense that scored at least 34 points each time out to win their first three games, but have been absolutely atrocious on defense this season and allowed running back Larry Johnson to roll up 198 rushing yards on 28 carries.
"I'm disappointed. We could've played better," Broncos safety Marlon McCree said. "The thing about a loss like that is it humbles you and makes you focus and tighten things up."
The Broncos are ranked 30th in overall defense, allowing 408.8 yards allowed per game, and 31st in scoring with 117 points allowed. They let Chiefs running back Larry Johnson rush for 198 yards, the most by a single player against Denver since Green Bay's Ahman Green had 218 on Dec. 28, 2003.
"Any offense that does that to a defense, there's no chance," said Shanahan, whose team still has sole possession of first place in the AFC West. "People will point to the defense, but that's so far from the truth.
Denver committed four times on Sunday and settled for field goals inside the red zone twice in the fourth quarter.
The Buccaneers are coming off a convincing 30-21 win over the Green Bay Packers, holding them to a season-low 181 total yards.
"This is a testament to this team, just finding a way to win in the fourth quarter," Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Brooks said. "No matter what phase of the game or who it is, we've been able to come up with big plays. To me, that's the sign of a good football team."
Brooks had one of Tampa Bay’s three interceptions last week and also forced a fumble that Jermaine Phillips returned 38 yards for a touchdown.
Quarterback Brian Griese, now 3-0 as the starter for Tampa Bay, has helped the Bucs to average 361 total yards of offense, (seventh) while also passing for 227.2 yards per contest, (9th) and average 25.2 points per game, (13th).
Here is a look at some key trends, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks.
Buccaneers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Broncos
Denver is 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
NFL Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 Ev
Denver Broncos -3 -120
Over 48 -110
Under 48 -110
Analysis: The Broncos have already shown that they can’t stop running water and now that they are moving the ball better on offense, could really be dangerous in the NFC this season. While I absolutely love Denver’s high-powered offense, I have to admit that this team is going to have a tough time winning games if they can’t stop their opponents.
The ‘Over’ is the best play for this contest, but if you’re looking for an ATS winner, I suggest taking the Bucs to cover the spread and possibly win outright.
NFL Free Picks: Buccaneers +3/ Over 48 Total Points