BetUS NFL betting odds: NEW ORLEANS -3, Total 46.5
NOTABLE STAT: Saints are allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TRENDS: Saints have played eight of last nine over the total
(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)
In the Monday night NFL football game this week, the New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), who have dealt with injuries to keep their collective head above water, play host to the Minnesota Vikings (1-3 SU & ATS), a team that hopes it has found a field leader who can guide them to the playoffs. Kickoff time is 8:30 PM ET at the Louisiana Superdome (artificial turf) in New Orleans.
In the BetUS betting odds, the Saints are listed as a three-point favorite, with a posted total of 46.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* MINN has covered one of its last seven games
* MINN has lost five of its last six games SU
* MINN has covered two of its last seven road games
* MINN has lost 11 of its last 15 road games SU
* NO has lost four of its last six games SU
* NO has played eight of its last nine games OVER the total
* NO is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 home games
* NO has played six of its last seven home games OVER the total
Also...
* MINN has covered four of the last five meetings
* MINN has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone OVER the total
When you look at this matchup, it becomes rather obvious that the Vikings are going to try to exploit the Saints run defense (or lack thereof) which has given up 5.2 yards a carry. Minnesota's formula didn't work too well against the Titans, who are very stingy up front, but here it should. To what degree, however? The Vikes have totaled under 200 yards in the last two games combined, and part of that involves the defense stacking things in the box and daring the quarterback to make the winning plays.
When Tarvaris Jackson was at the helm, opponents had to worry a little more about his mobility than his arm. Gus Frerotte is somewhat the opposite, although in terms of his physical ability at age 37, the strongest attribute the former Tulsa star brings to the table is his veteran presence, which Jackson can't yet duplicate. As such, maybe the Vikings can find some ways to score through the air on those occasions when the running game is stopped short.
Drew Brees unquestionably deserves some early MVP consideration for what he has done. His offense has been falling apart around him, drilled by injuries to wide receivers like Marques Colston and others, tight end Jeremy Shockey and running back Deuce McAllister. Yet Brees has led the Saints to 969 yards and 63 points the last two games. With McAllister having contributed last week (73 yards rushing) and Robert Meachum getting out there for a few big plays, Brees (72%, 8 TD's, only four sacks) can keep this machine humming, especially against a Minnesota secondary that is low-functioning when people like Jared Allen are not getting to the passer.
We admit to being a little wary about laying points with the Saints at home, where they've covered just seven of their last 24 games. But since each team's defense has weaknesses the other team's offense can exploit, we can see New Orleans' totals trends (eight overs in nine games) continuing. Let's go OVER the total of 46.5 points as it is posted in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
PLAY: OVER 46.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)