BigEastExpert's Blog

Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 08:22 PM

NFLX Week 3 Betting Strategies

What to look for in week 3:

This is the week that most teams will have a dress rehearsal for the regular season. Keep in mind that week 4 is usually (completely) meaningless and is all about avoiding injuries and resting starters. So week 3 is the last good chance to use solid handicapping skills and make some money before the real season starts.

As usual, check in with local web pages, news reports and official sites to get the coach's game plan, injury reports and the QB rotation. Typically you will see starters going for the entire 1st half - sometimes even into the 3rd quarter.

Some coaches want to win in week 3. Check the past history of current coaches in week 3 of the preseason.

Based on offensive starters getting more playing time we're likely to see more points scored for good offensive teams. (Read here: Arizona does not make this list!) You'll see that some totals set a bit higher than in weeks 1 & 2.

General betting strategies will include:

Teams that want to win (play 1st half lines ATS).

Higher scoring in certain situations - play over 1H and full game as appropriate.

Time to get to work.  Some key stats and official plays will be forthcoming for consideration as we handicap week 3 of NFLX.

I'll be looking for 4 - 5 solid plays this week that fit the profile.

Good luck this week.



Posted Sunday, July 12, 2009 09:06 PM

How to prepare for college football season 2009

1) Read, read, read...Phil Steele, Athlon, etc. Read about every team - who they retained, who they lost, coaching changes, scheme changes, strength of recruiting class, etc.
 
2) Subscribe to CPFN...great magazine for stats throughout the season.
 
3) Get your bankroll ready...and plan for good money management.  Even units most of the time.  Step out for a big play when the situation calls for it.  (Yes, Big East big plays went 26-9 last year).
 
4) Always go with your first instinct.  I still (occasionally) make the mistake of overthinking a play.  When I flip on a game I usually regret it.  The first instinct is right more than it is wrong. 
 
5) It does not hurt to take a look at some of the respected handicappers on Covers to see who they are on.  Don't tail blindly but if your play matches a respected, documented, winning 'capper that may be a solid play.
 
More thoughts will follow.  Feel free to comment.  I cannot wait for week 1!
 


Posted Sunday, November 23, 2008 12:17 PM

Sunday NFL from Big East (Big plays 15-3 YTD)

Big plays are now 15-3 on the year. 5 unit play on OKL -6.5 easily crushes the number last night.  GOY quality pick.  Also jumped on Cincy -6 as a 3 unit play and that came through with a win and cover.  8 units won on those 2 plays alone.  Key Big East total release crushed the number as WVU and the Ville put up 56 to go over the total of 46.5.
 
Recent record update:
 
> 8-3 last 11 plays
> November big plays are now 6-1
 
On to Sunday...
 
Giants -3
 
Looks like this may be a trap line and a trap game for the men in blue, but I see this defense giving Warner all he can handle today.  Look for major pass rush by the Giants' front line causing errant throws. Cards D not impressive at all to me.  Giants by 7 here as rushing game pounds away and Eli manages an efficient game.
 
More later.
 


Posted Sunday, November 16, 2008 12:16 PM

NFL Sunday Plays

Back from the Caribbean...a nice 2 week stay...limited posts lately but was able to send in Bama and Texas Tech last week as 2 big play winners.
 
Big play record YTD is 11-2.
 
Today...
 
NY Giants - Balt Under 40
 
Expect both offenses to stall here against great defenses...add in some cold and windy weather...money is split 50-50 on the total yet it has dropped 2 points. 
 
More plays coming...
 


Posted Sunday, October 19, 2008 10:55 AM

Sunday NFL Picks

Ended the day in college with a 3-0 sweep of the 8:00 pm games as ILL, BC and (big play) LSU all took home the cash.
 
Big plays in football this year are 6-0 ATS.
 
On to Sunday...
 
Giants -10
 
I can justify the big number here as Giants are in a great spot to "bounce back" after Monday night debacle in Cleveland and SF travels to east coast after giving up 40 to Philly on their home field.  Giants offense should have its way today against a soft SF D that gave up a total of 101 points over the last 3 games!  Is that the kind of D that can stand up to Big Blue's receiving corp and stable of big and fast backs?  I say no.  G-Men here by 17.
 
More plays later.
 


Posted Sunday, September 28, 2008 09:24 AM

Big East's NFL Sunday thread

NFL regular season: 10-4 ATS
 
NCAAF this week: 6-2 ATS
 
Big plays YTD 3-0 ATS
 
Let's get things started this Sunday.  I have made some subtle but important changes to my handicapping methodology this season and so far those changes are paying off.
 
Totals have been red hot in both the NFL and college.  I need to go back and figure out the ATS % for totals. Maybe later this week I will do that.
 
One total is jumping out at me so far.
 
Jets-Cardinals UNDER 44.5
 
I am still going through my analysis.  More plays later.
 


Posted Friday, September 05, 2008 04:39 PM

NCAAF Saturday

7-3 on the year...
 
1-0 in Big East play...
 
Saturday...
 
West VA -7 (-120)
 
Too much speed on WVU and matchup problems for ECU here.
 
I was on ECU last week but moving off of them here.  Oddmakers trying to lure you in with the hot underdog off big upset getting the TD plus here at home.  I am not biting.
 
Won't need the hook but I always take it.
 
WVU by 14.
 
Good luck.
 
 


Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2008 10:09 PM

CFB Week 1 from Big East

Season CFB record: 0-0
 
Last year in week 1 CFB:  9 wins & 1 loss
 
Let's get this thing started...
 
First plays:
 
USC -19.5
 
Clemson -4.5
 
Many more plays to come with plenty of analysis. 
 
Thursday action coming shortly.
 
Good luck this year.
 


Posted Tuesday, August 05, 2008 09:17 PM

NFL Preseason Thursday Night

Update:
 
1-0 on Sunday night as the over 31 cruised in for an easy cover.
 
It's always nice to have your over covered in the 3rd quarter.
 
Next up:  Thursday's game matching up NE and BALT.
 
I am playing some strong trends here and I also have a good working knowledge of my local team here in Maryland.  Look for a heavy dose of "D" with a vanilla "O" chaser.  Nice recipe for an under.
 
NE-BALT UNDER 35 
 
Good luck.
 
 
 


Posted Saturday, August 02, 2008 10:32 AM

Getting ready for college football season

We have a great list going here.  I will add this to my blog.
 
See the link below and keep the great ideas coming.
 
Getting ready for the season. Here are a few essentials.  Feel free to add to the list.
 
Plasma TV, 50 inch or better
Directv - high def service
ESPN game plan
Fox sports channel package
Phil Steele's college football preview magazine
Wireless high speed internet
Covers.com
Various online sports books - loaded
Speed dial set up for your "local"
Fully stocked liquor cabinet....
 
What else...?
 
 


Posted Sunday, July 13, 2008 11:56 AM

In game betting: Cash cow or money burner?

One of my favorite ways to make money on sports betting is taking advantage of in game betting lines.   Sports betting, much like commodities trading, is a market.  There is a product for sale (the betting line or odds), a seller (sports book, casino or your local) and a buyer (you, the sports bettor).  And everyone is trying to find an advanatge to make money.   Like many markets, emotion comes into play and that is where the smart bettor takes advantage.    Comparison: The oil market gets news of potential conflict in the Middle East.  Nervous speculators driven mostly by emotion bid the price of oil up.  In game betting: The underdog in the game puts up a few quick scores and the favorite falls behing early.  Here is where emotion comes into play.  The seller (online book) suddenly offers the underdog as a favorite.  If you (the sports bettor) get caught up in the emotion by jumping on the team that is ahead without thinking it through, you can get burned.  You can end up losing your original bet and also your in game bet.   I can give you many examples of how I apply this strategy, but this is my favorite.  Last season's Alamo Bowl paired up Penn State and Texas A&M with PSU as a 6 point favorite.  Texas A&M, the home team, came out on fire, scoring 14 quick points and went up 14-0.  I had a large wager on PSU -6 and got a little nervous seeing that kind of start to the g... [More]

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User: BigEastExpert
Joined: January 2006
Location: United States
Team: West Virginia Mountaineers
Occupation: Management

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