BigEastExpert's Blog

How to prepare for college football season 2009

By BigEastExpert | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, July 12, 2009 09:06 PM

52 comments

1) Read, read, read...Phil Steele, Athlon, etc. Read about every team - who they retained, who they lost, coaching changes, scheme changes, strength of recruiting class, etc.

2) Subscribe to CPFN...great magazine for stats throughout the season.

3) Get your bankroll ready...and plan for good money management. Even units most of the time. Step out for a big play when the situation calls for it. (Yes, Big East big plays went 26-9 last year).

4) Always go with your first instinct. I still (occasionally) make the mistake of overthinking a play. When I flip on a game I usually regret it. The first instinct is right more than it is wrong.

5) It does not hurt to take a look at some of the respected handicappers on Covers to see who they are on. Don't tail blindly but if your play matches a respected, documented, winning 'capper that may be a solid play.

More thoughts will follow. Feel free to comment. I cannot wait for week 1!

Report Abuse

52 comments

Post A Comment

lineguesser says:

07/12/09 09:12PM

BEE: regarding #4

I would recommend to NEVER flip a side in any given game. Just make it a no play rather than a flip and you will be much better off, financially and mentally

In only the most extreme cases would I suggest flipping on a game but the only circumstance for that I can think of is if a major star goes down with injury midweek

Ice4Blood says:

07/12/09 09:18PM

i can add one...

don't chase the games you "wish you had played"...

here's what i mean by this... let's say in week 1 there are about 15 games you are looking at, but you end up only betting 8...

you go 6-2 on your 8... but you would have also gone 5-2 on the 7 you didn't bet... this will sometimes get people to expand their pool of games to bet on, because they feel like they "lost money" by not betting all of the games they liked...

DON'T DO THIS!

be happy with the strong card, and stick with tighter (rather than looser) standards on which games you bet... inevitably, you will expand your card and all of those "bubble games" you were staying away from will flop the week you decide to add them into the mix...

CalBear says:

07/12/09 09:35PM

I fell victim to this during the NBA playoffs. A couple times during the playoffs I was unable to get a wager in for whatever reason and it would hit, so on my following wager I would make it twice as big to try and recoup what I would have won and it burned me. Big NO..NO and great advice.

I can't wait for week one either Big E...GL.

BigEastExpert says:

07/12/09 09:36PM

Ice, agreed. That brings me to point 6.

6) You must have discipline - limit your plays to the very best. Many of you know that I play a small card week in and week out. If you are playing 12 + games every Saturday, that is too many. Try 4-5 plays and narrow it down to the very best plays on the board. Vegas wants you to feast on their buffet. Fuck them. Choose from the big menu carefully and you (and your wallet) will be sufficiently full at the end of the meal.

rokodesh says:

07/12/09 09:42PM

as a fan and compulsive gambler, I can't wait for college football season.

DoubleUp4Life says:

07/12/09 10:16PM

I agree with almost everything you said Brother ,,,

But I dont see anything wrong with flip flopping on games ...

Sometimes late information or insight can really help you decide between team A or B

bibendi23 says:

07/12/09 10:24PM

Going to disagree here. Some people limit themselves to a few games when they find good value in several. It's mainly about the amount of time you have to cap games. If you thoroughly cap a game and find a side you like, pull the trigger. I have played 12 game cards and done very well

jcgrox22 says:

07/12/09 11:56PM

Just wandering how much do you suggest to have in the bank (account). I know it depends on how much you play. Just wanted some opinions. I think I will save more money to just wait for football instead of betting baseball because I am bored.

Ice4Blood says:

07/13/09 12:17AM

regarding selection... i think early in the year you can pull 10 or even 12 game cards and do well, but by the 2nd month of the season i don't think it's a good idea to go more than maybe 6 games...

i guess everyone has some different standards on that, but the point is to only be wagering money on games that you really feel like you can't NOT bet... just too good to pass up on... if you do that you will usually find a slim but solid card...

Skipster says:

07/13/09 12:44AM

7. Have as much sex as you can get now before the season starts, because once it does, your wife or girlfriend will begin to like you less and less as the season progresses.

gfoss59 says:

07/13/09 07:34AM

Great general advice and great comments -- indeed, interestingly, most of the above would apply to almost any sport.

In answer to Triple Option, one thing I do is write down a handicapping chart, which rationalizes the process for me, and then, write down my picks and plays at the end... with a little blerblet about why for each one. (I mean a phrase, like, "Buckeyes just can't copy with Penn State pass rush," or whatever.)

This helps me feel the process is more solid, and what's more, it is. Helps me to learn from mistakes too. When I look at any single sheet or day, for example, I might wish I had done this or that. But invariably, over time, my track record is better than my "coulda shoulda woulda" record.

(What if it isn't? Well then you should reconsider... if and only if it's gone on for a series of iterations. But you'll have a basis for doing so... something to look back on. A process to adjust. If you're problem is overthinking for example, you might just be the opposite of me -- and find that your hip-shots are more accurate than your studied analyses.)

Cheers and GL...

Charlie111 says:

07/13/09 12:10PM

One of the biggest mistakes that gamblers make is poor money mgmt. I strongly recommend a 1-5* rating system.

Frist, determine what you can afford to lose for the entire season. Whatever that number is will be your bankroll.

1* plays should represent 1% of your bankroll. So, $5000 bankroll would be $50. At the very least, 1* plays should make up 40% of your plays.

2* (2% of bankroll) should be about 30% of your plays.

3* should be around 15% of your plays

4* 10% of your plays.

5* No more than 5% of your plays.

Of course, you will not be exactly on these percentages, but you should be very close. If you have a bad week, do not try to play catch up late in the week. Rate your plays and be disciplined to stay the course. On the other hand, if you are having a good week, do not up your bets because you are playing with house money. This is just stupid poor money management.

PrimeTimeBoys says:

07/13/09 12:22PM

LoL! I definitely agree with this, altho some wives or girlfriends like watching football, they hate the gambling aspect of it.

Johnnynumbers says:

07/13/09 02:27PM

Have to agree BEE....GL and lets get ready!

atlheatholder says:

07/13/09 06:25PM

Good post BEE - agree with all of it.

I also frequent collegefootballpoll.com - they have some good shit on there with computer predictions and the such.

Also like what Ice said as well - moderation is a grossly overlooked key to profit.

larojoes says:

07/13/09 07:34PM

Lots of good info and ideas in this thread. I would like to reply to 2 in particular. I don't believe there is an ideal number of plays per week. If there are 10-12 in the colleges you really like, why hold back? That said, I do agree there may be a larger number of attractive plays early as opposed to later in the season. It is unlikely the oddsmaker would put out as many as a dozen "soft numbers" for one weekend once October rolls around--that is 25% or more of the full slate of games on any given weekend. I had an 8-3 card in Week 2 last year, but it seemed more difficult to have a winning weekend when going for more than 5-7 plays (that includes totals) thereafter.

With regard to money management and wager size, although there are 'cappers I respect who use a star-unit system, I am not convinced this is wiser than a flat betting method. Under any typical variation of the star-unit system, a bettor could go 3-1, for example, and still lose money as a reward for all the great handicapping he did. Of course we are going to like some of our plays more than others, but I can't see how that justifies increasing the risk on them. Moreover, I have a hard time envisioning how a 'capper could rate a play according to one of 5 different levels of confidence, as the example above suggests. IMO, a play is either worth a given risk or it is not. It might be argued to the contrary that different plays have different probability-of-success rates. Ultimately the bettor chooses between a more cautious or more aggressive wagering style.

Good luck to all this season. Counting the days...

nostradamus12 says:

07/13/09 07:35PM

good stuff all

agree with bibendi 12+ games can be done, one thing sometimes overlooked is for those that play totals (or team totals) you'll already have a larger card than the majority that rarely or never play, such 7-8 sides and 3-4 totals some weeks

Trooper64 says:

07/13/09 07:57PM

Good stuff here. Great advice from Ice, especially for me. I bet almost exclusively 2H's and often I beat myself up for what I missed, even if I have had a great day! Don't chase what could have been.....solid.....

Gold_Rush says:

07/13/09 08:36PM

All great tips Big East, Thanks..

I agree, now is the time to prepare for the games

Discipline is the biggest key of it all, self control and as you say 1st instinct is the way you must go

I can not wait till the 1st week of September

Its gonna be a great year

BigEastExpert says:

07/13/09 09:19PM

Agree BigdaddyQH. It is all a mater of personal preference. I picked an arbitrary number of 12 games on Saturday as my example. You can win 6 games there and, assuming even units, lose money. Ouch. It is all about winning money as we all know. If this works for bidendi and others, that's great. But take a look at your full season playing a dozen every Saturday. Yes, you will pull in some 9-3 and maybe 10-2 weeks, but you must also look at how many times you hit 6 or less. All of those are losing weeks. Just offering some advice here based on the things I have learned over time. Limit your card and maximize your chances for profits. Good luck all.

BigEastExpert says:

07/13/09 09:29PM

Triple, fortunately it does not happen often for me in CFB, but if I was having a 1-4 day and not feeling strong about the night card, I'd start studying the Sunday NFL games or even take a break until the following week. Nothing wrong with that. The point is do not press. It can make things worse. Good luck this season.

BigEastExpert says:

07/13/09 09:30PM

Gold, GL buddy. BOL this year.

BigEastExpert says:

07/13/09 09:32PM

Good one Skipster. This one is often overlooked!

Boom_Boom says:

07/13/09 09:34PM

GL This Year BEE

always good stuff.

RayzHELL says:

07/14/09 03:03AM

Do not limit yourself to cappers on Covers. I usually put the picks of about six "experts" on a spreadsheet and compare and contrast giving more weight to those I trust more.

Charlie111 says:

07/14/09 09:00AM

Larojoes,

The flat betting method is a good method as well. It is all about discipline in which ever way you bet. I use the 5* system and I can tell you that it works for me because I truly work hard on capping the games. I played 4* plays less than 10% of the time and the 5* plays only 3 times all college season. I went 2-1 on those plays and was proud of the results. Having 5 levels of confidence is a difficult thing and I agree with you on that, but there are a few opportunities out there if you really cap hard. I am lucky that I own a business and have good people below me. This allows me time to cap (play on the computer), so the rating system works for me. If you don't have this kind of time, the flat method or maybe a 1-2* rating system would work better.

This is an excellant thread and I look forward to sharing ideas with the good people here this college season. Charlie

larojoes says:

07/14/09 12:26PM

Charlie111,

Thanks for the reply. The star-unit system seems more viable to me if, as in your case, the higher-star plays account for a much smaller proportion of the overall number of plays. As it stands now, I have two levels of confidence for potential plays: "green lights," which I will definitely pull the trigger on, and "strong opinions," games I will give a second look before I determine my final list. However, this is not truly a star-unit system because I don't vary the wager size if I end up betting on a "strong opinion." Some of the 'cappers I most respect advise the bettor to up the stakes a bit when things are going well and, conversely, to reduce the wager size when the "Ws" are hard to come by. Over the past 15 months, I have read widely and voraciously about this activity, but I feel I'm still scrambling up a steep learning curve, so for the time being my wagering approach is cautious. If one wants to do it himself, it should go without saying that having time to 'cap is fundamental--it is definitely a time-devouring grind. I imagine 'capping with a computer helps you to refine your levels of confidence to the extent you do. Do you rate your plays according to the number/weight of factors in a team's favor?

TRAIN69 says:

07/16/09 08:03PM

Go fuck yourself no8 .....seriously. We dont want or need you on this site..you've been here 3 months....3 worthless months....

6 weeks away BEE

TRAIN69 says:

07/20/09 05:11PM

At lest you can spot your own kind....and it aint the tout......

BigEastExpert says:

07/21/09 08:56PM

LegendTW - Looking forward to the season buddy.

no8 - You can officially go fuck yourself asswipe.

All good threads must be ruined by newbies, assholes and SAFs (yes, I am sure you are an alias).

BigEastExpert says:

07/17/09 10:05AM

no8 - I am inclined to give you a mulligan here. Posting a documented record is not "toutish".

Best of luck to you...unless...you are JRBULL ot Tarheelz (which you may be given the April 2009 membership date to Covers).

BigEastExpert says:

07/17/09 11:26AM

Long Term Profits - Returning offensive and defensive lines are incredibly important - I totally agree. If a team is wiped out by graduation/NFL draft (example - lost 4 of 5 starters on the O line) I tend to tread lightly on those teams early on to see how the new units perform.

Excellent point.

BigEastExpert says:

07/17/09 02:16PM

bibendi - That would be great. Will have to give it a try. What's the best bar in Annapolis?

BigEastExpert says:

07/16/09 10:28AM

nostradamus - Good luck this year budddy.

bracks says:

07/18/09 12:13AM

Triple- get use to it. they start is usually from a "homer" liking his team and someone says sh*t about them.

No one looks at the "its us against the world" thinking.

I was called a "gay, doorman that watched the games in his parents basement on a 13" TV" because I said how my Tarheels would beat the best player in the nation Blake, not that it was only a 1v1 w/ Tyler. (although I think that Lawson was the Most Important Player)

thats the way they are on here. Just move on and don't answer them unless you give more info on your point. They want a fight, just give stats.

LongTermProfits says:

07/14/09 01:02PM

BEE

great stuff, as usual - love reading your posts and following some of your picks

i was wondering how much emphasis you place on returning offensive and defensive line starters?

bookieassassin says:

07/16/09 08:37PM

get rid of wife / girlfriend once season begins.....in a safe .....non - McNair type way.....(knowing proper method of release is just as important as knowing how to catch 'em).......only women you require are strippers to entertain you and your buddies at 1/2 time......(assuming no 1/2 time wager involved)......slowly ALLOW chicks back in your life around feb 15th or so........

nc1capper says:

07/16/09 11:44AM

BEE - looks like you are in mid season form already, looking forward to working our way thur another banner season--BOL Sir, cant wait to see some numbers to chew on !!!!

presto1127 says:

07/15/09 01:16PM

another magazine you might want to check out is gameplan, they dont come out till august but are very indepth on teams i love them

PrimeTimeBoys says:

07/20/09 06:09PM

The season cant get here soon enough!

19741974 says:

07/18/09 12:19AM

we don't need people arguing against each other here we just need some picks that are winners. or some good insight.

bibendi23 says:

07/17/09 10:18AM

Hey BEE, if you ever want to grab a beer and discuss some football before the season begins let me know

AC4LIFE says:

07/19/09 01:12PM

8) Don't ever bet the BIG 10 in big games.

Year after year, I try to convince myself and find farfetched reasons to take the Big 10 in a big game. No matter what people say, the athletes are overmatched down south. It makes sense; football is outside and athletes want to play in beautiful fall weather down south, as well as see white skirts all year around. The difference is the nickel and dime corners, lineman that can run as fast as big 10 safeties, and the speed rb/wr combinations who can be used to "outrun" the Big 10 defense.

bej0101 says:

07/15/09 08:44PM

do your own capping..READ..READ..READ..

all wagers MUST be 3% of your evolving bankroll...

NEVER and i mean NEVER chase...i repeat NEVER..

have a great season..

Prosteak says:

07/21/09 10:03PM

WendysRox - take it easy. Your math is correct, and I think everybody can follow that, but if YOU make 30 plays a week through a season and are at 55%, I am your shadow. No reason to take anybody down that hard because they are giving an opinion. Peace.

WendysRox says:

07/17/09 11:01AM

I'm in a bad mood, forgive me taking it out on you.... but you seem like a real self-righteous douchebag.

First of all, your math is wrong...

Take a guy that plays 8 plays a week @ 100/play and goes 60%. In 20 weeks (roughly a season, I'd guess), he wins $9600 and loses 6400 for a profit of 3200.

Guy B plays 30 plays/week @ 100/play and goes 55%. He wins 33,000 and loses 27000 for a profit of 6000.

The guy with a worse winning percentage makes nearly double the profit by betting more games. I'm surprised you don't know this, judging by your extensive gambling knowledge.

Second, you'd have to be a complete moron to adjust what games you bet dependent on whether or not your total number of wagers for the day, week, or year is an even number or not. Surely, I misunderstood you when you said, "DO NOT play an even amount of games."

That's all for now... I feel better.. thanks covers!

Veritas says:

07/21/09 09:34PM

Best of luck this year BEE... forget the shit talkers and let's focus on a successful CFB season.

Charlie111 says:

07/14/09 01:46PM

Larojoes,

Stats that are readily available to everyone is something I look at, but do not consider a major tool. I think team trends are useless, but situational spots that are not team based are something I consider when capping a game. Human beings are very emotional and these situational spots can reflect these emotions. I look to fade home favorites off upset road wins, off big rival games, teams with big games the next week, etc. These type things are what I look at. Another crazy angle is to bet on a team that lost a major player (QB, RB) to injury the past week. Sometimes, the books will set the line too far off because they believe there will be an over-reaction by the public. It is amazing how teams can step up the plate the first game after a major injury. On the other hand, injuries to less glamous positions like the offensive line can really be a factor in games, but is not reflected in the line. I also like to bet the small conferences more than the major ones. Somtimes these small conferences have good value in the lines as more attention is paid to the "big" games.

I'll add one more thing. Lines are set in an attempt to get equal "money" on both side. This does not mean an equal number of bets. If I see a team laying only 3 points, when I think they should a TD or more. This really gets my attention. If the line looks fishy, I try to find out why the line is what it is. If I can not find any obvious reason, I believe these lines to be motivated by Sharps, and I will tag along take the dog in this game. Charlie

Charlie111 says:

07/14/09 04:49PM

If you use a local book like myself, be sure to document all your bets plainly in a ledger type log book. Being organized can save you some money as a bookie will make mistakes. It is amazing how locals can be so sloppy (or slyly smart) with their record keeping. If you are unorganized, the local will stand his ground on you if he thinks you are unprepared. My local and I have disagreed on the weekly results from time to time, but I have never lost an argument with him. He knows I'm organized.

Ice4Blood says:

07/20/09 06:31PM

BigEast is a tout because he is preaching money management???

what do you sound like?

-LB- says:

09/08/09 10:15AM

BEE

Plaese stop by and post a play on my play of the week blog. Ill being doing it the whole season. -- Please Spread the word. As well in the NFL fourm

Thanks

Lets make it a winning week!!!

-LB-

LayingJuice says:

07/16/09 01:28AM

I gotta tell ya's, i love the gambling and up here in Canada i do well on the Bullshit sportsAction, but i have just recently started with the online, havn;t put any money in yet but that leads me to this, where do i put my money, in one account or do you spread it around, the other thing is how to find an understanding of the numbers, for example -220 is it the same as 2.20, is that how it works or what about units, i got the spread and the over but its the rest that confuses me, sorry for being such an amature, but would like to know more before i get the money into the mix, and does anyone play online pkoer, and wherre is there any good places that are not the big names that are honest.

Add your response:	You must be logged in to post a comment. Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.

Profile

User:	BigEastExpert
Joined:	January 2006
Location:	United States
Team:	West Virginia Mountaineers
Occupation:	Management

BigEastExpert's Blog

How to prepare for college football season 2009

Profile

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories