BigEastExpert's Blog

In game betting: Cash cow or money burner?

By BigEastExpert | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, July 13, 2008 11:56 AM   4 comments
One of my favorite ways to make money on sports betting is taking advantage of in game betting lines.
 
Sports betting, much like commodities trading, is a market.  There is a product for sale (the betting line or odds), a seller (sports book, casino or your local) and a buyer (you, the sports bettor).  And everyone is trying to find an advanatge to make money.
 
Like many markets, emotion comes into play and that is where the smart bettor takes advantage. 
 
Comparison: The oil market gets news of potential conflict in the Middle East.  Nervous speculators driven mostly by emotion bid the price of oil up.  In game betting: The underdog in the game puts up a few quick scores and the favorite falls behing early.  Here is where emotion comes into play.  The seller (online book) suddenly offers the underdog as a favorite.  If you (the sports bettor) get caught up in the emotion by jumping on the team that is ahead without thinking it through, you can get burned.  You can end up losing your original bet and also your in game bet.
 
I can give you many examples of how I apply this strategy, but this is my favorite.  Last season's Alamo Bowl paired up Penn State and Texas A&M with PSU as a 6 point favorite.  Texas A&M, the home team, came out on fire, scoring 14 quick points and went up 14-0.  I had a large wager on PSU -6 and got a little nervous seeing that kind of start to the game.  I went to the in game line after TAMU went up by 14.  I nearly fell over when they posted TAMU -10.5!  I quickly and calmly grabbed up PSU +10.5 having confidence Joe Pa would make the proper adjustments and make the game competitive.
 
PSU came storming back and went up by 7 in the 2nd half.  TAMU drove the ball down to the 5 yard line late in the game and PSU made a great stop on 4th down to essentially ice the game.
 
Final score: PSU 24 TAMU 17
 
PSU -6 = Winner
PSU +10.5 = Easy winner
 
When it comes to in game betting, keep your emotions in check and look for opportunities to catch the sportsbook napping.  If applied correctly, this strategy can be very profitable.
 
4 comments
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Boom_Boom says:
07/13/08 01:22PM
GL
magicman1642 says:
07/15/08 12:34AM
i like the inplay with hoops and the over under. i like to try to judge pre game the total, then hope i can get on the other side of it at 8 - 10 points. the juice is always -110, so even if i only win one of the bets, which i always will, im only down 10%, butwhen i hit both i win. only need it once in 7 to brea it even.
bookieassassin says:
07/28/08 09:26AM
wild ass drunken 1/2 time bets from sports bars really BAD idea.....calculated  (pre planned) wagers in game... one of best opportunities to make $

* lines come out within minutes...sometimes before 1st 1/2 even over....hit those early #s for great value

* many teams have strong tendencies in each 1/2...start slow on road.....strong at home......great adjustments at 1/2 time....NO adjustments....(mike leach has stated in interviews he often uses 1st 1/2 as feeling out process > haven't noticed...pretty good 2nd 1/2 team)

* examine HOW the team is question is up or down....un characteristic mistakes.....lucky breaks....or getting ass whipped

ie....if fav is down at 1/2 time and you just know they're coming back....but they haven't turned ball over and can't run ball.....and lets say can't really stop other team...esp running game < DON"T

* proven qb + strong running game + D that can stop run often excellent teams for 1/2 time wager

 

example of pre game planning.....

     ohio st @ usc.....not far fetched that ohio st with entire team returning with big game exp...is up at 1/2 time....usc with unproven qb and only 1 OL returning prob not good bet to come back.....esp when you consider strong running game (should be...) of ohio st..

KNOW WHAT YOU WILL DO BEFOREHAND BASED ON POSSIBLE SITUATIONS.....AVOIDING EMOTIONAL PLAYS THAT DRAIN THE BANKROLL...  

example of pre game planng 

GWarner27 says:
07/28/08 10:39PM
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User: BigEastExpert
Joined: January 2006
Location: United States
Team: West Virginia Mountaineers
Occupation: Management

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