Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 08:22 PM
What to look for in week 3:
This is the week that most teams will have a dress rehearsal for the regular season. Keep in mind that week 4 is usually (completely) meaningless and is all about avoiding injuries and resting starters. So week 3 is the last good chance to use solid handicapping skills and make some money before the real season starts.
As usual, check in with local web pages, news reports and official sites to get the coach's game plan, injury reports and the QB rotation. Typically you will see starters going for the entire 1st half - sometimes even into the 3rd quarter.
Some coaches want to win in week 3. Check the past history of current coaches in week 3 of the preseason.
Based on offensive starters getting more playing time we're likely to see more points scored for good offensive teams. (Read here: Arizona does not make this list!) You'll see that some totals set a bit higher than in weeks 1 & 2.
General betting strategies will include:
Teams that want to win (play 1st half lines ATS).
Higher scoring in certain situations - play over 1H and full game as appropriate.
Time to get to work. Some key stats and official plays will be forthcoming for consideration as we handicap week 3 of NFLX.
I'll be looking for 4 - 5 solid plays this week that fit the profile.
Good luck this week.
Posted Sunday, November 23, 2008 12:17 PM
Big plays are now 15-3 on the year. 5 unit play on OKL -6.5 easily crushes the number last night. GOY quality pick. Also jumped on Cincy -6 as a 3 unit play and that came through with a win and cover. 8 units won on those 2 plays alone. Key Big East total release crushed the number as WVU and the Ville put up 56 to go over the total of 46.5.
Recent record update:
> 8-3 last 11 plays
> November big plays are now 6-1
On to Sunday...
Giants -3
Looks like this may be a trap line and a trap game for the men in blue, but I see this defense giving Warner all he can handle today. Look for major pass rush by the Giants' front line causing errant throws. Cards D not impressive at all to me. Giants by 7 here as rushing game pounds away and Eli manages an efficient game.
More later.
Posted Sunday, November 16, 2008 12:16 PM
Back from the Caribbean...a nice 2 week stay...limited posts lately but was able to send in Bama and Texas Tech last week as 2 big play winners.
Big play record YTD is 11-2.
Today...
NY Giants - Balt Under 40
Expect both offenses to stall here against great defenses...add in some cold and windy weather...money is split 50-50 on the total yet it has dropped 2 points.
More plays coming...
Posted Sunday, October 19, 2008 10:55 AM
Ended the day in college with a 3-0 sweep of the 8:00 pm games as ILL, BC and (big play) LSU all took home the cash.
Big plays in football this year are 6-0 ATS.
On to Sunday...
Giants -10
I can justify the big number here as Giants are in a great spot to "bounce back" after Monday night debacle in Cleveland and SF travels to east coast after giving up 40 to Philly on their home field. Giants offense should have its way today against a soft SF D that gave up a total of 101 points over the last 3 games! Is that the kind of D that can stand up to Big Blue's receiving corp and stable of big and fast backs? I say no. G-Men here by 17.
More plays later.
Posted Sunday, September 28, 2008 09:24 AM
NFL regular season: 10-4 ATS
NCAAF this week: 6-2 ATS
Big plays YTD 3-0 ATS
Let's get things started this Sunday. I have made some subtle but important changes to my handicapping methodology this season and so far those changes are paying off.
Totals have been red hot in both the NFL and college. I need to go back and figure out the ATS % for totals. Maybe later this week I will do that.
One total is jumping out at me so far.
Jets-Cardinals UNDER 44.5
I am still going through my analysis. More plays later.
Posted Tuesday, August 05, 2008 09:17 PM
Update:
1-0 on Sunday night as the over 31 cruised in for an easy cover.
It's always nice to have your over covered in the 3rd quarter.
Next up: Thursday's game matching up NE and BALT.
I am playing some strong trends here and I also have a good working knowledge of my local team here in Maryland. Look for a heavy dose of "D" with a vanilla "O" chaser. Nice recipe for an under.
NE-BALT UNDER 35
Good luck.