*****Two 4 Unit Plays this Week and Week 13 Card*****

Well I was going to wait until after Thanksgiving to post to see how I made out but I don't see myself having much time this weekend with travel and all. 

On a bit of a lucky run with my 4 unit plays, 4-0 so far, so I'm either going big or going home this week as I'm going to play two.  I might be making up for the slaughtering I took in college last week, and lets hope I don't get burned for being cocky here, but I see two standout plays this week:

Playing

Buffalo -6 (Hook) Over San Francisco (4 Units)

(Normally I don't buy the hook on 6 but I have a general rule when I'm putting larger money down its better safe than sorry, and 6 is a very possible score differential.  Weather may be less than stellar in Buffalo and I'll be damned if I lose on a fluke missed extra point or some shit like that).

Stats:

San Franciso's Defense has allowed 30 points or more six times this season.  They are also third to last in scoring defense surrendering over 28 ppg, including almost 31 on the road.  Their high priced hodgepodge of expensive free agents are allowing almost 380 yards per game on the road, including almost 280 vs the pass (way to earn that 60 Mil Nate Clements).  Their 3 wins have come against Seattle, St Louis, and Detroit, who sport a less than impressive 4-28 SU record collectively.  Against teams at or above.500, they are being outscored by more than 11 points per game.  In some fairness, a... [More]

***Monday Night Football Write Up and Play****

Well, I almost literally flipped a coin here.  The football Gods have blessed us with another difficult game to cap, but at least this should be an entertaining matchup.  Neither team has a major advantage in this game as their strengths or perceived strengths fly into the faces of the other teams strengths as well.  If I wasnt a degenerete I might even lay off this game but God knows that would be an impossbility so here we go:   Playing:   New Orleans -1   Thinking about Greenbay +7.5/Over 45 as both a middle opportunity, a hedge, and just for the hell of it as I see this game going over and staying within a touchdown differential either way.   Stats:   As I mentioned above this is a strength versus strength matchup.  Brees is on pace to break Marino's single season record which is actually quite an accomplishment with the injuries they have had.  NO has the number one passing offense in the league and they are averaging over 330 passing ypg at home and also over 420 total yards.  Conversely, GB has been very strong against the pass this season only surrendering under 160 passing yards per game on the road.    GB has been gashed on the ground on the road but the Saints pose little threat of running the ball, so this will fall completly on Brees vs GB's amped up secondary.  Defensively, the Saints have had all of the stoutness of a used giz rag but at home they have performed much better, giv... [More]

Texas/Kansas Write Up and Play

Well let me state that I am joining the public on this one and laying almost two touchdown chalk on the road, so normally this play would scare the shit out of me and would probably be a no-play, but in this case I see so many mismatches I can't resist.   Play:   Texas -13.5 over Kansas (2 Units)   - The line seems to be about right as Kansas opened as 17  underdogs at Oklahoma, and the Sooners and Horns are pretty much evenly matched across the board.  I will state I was on Kansas in that game and got extremely lucky on the backdoor as it looks like Reesing himself had two units on the Jayhawks and engineered a touchdown to Briscoe with less than 30 seconds left.  A funny thing I noticed is Stoops looked pissed about it despite the fact he was getting a two touchdown victory against a ranked conference opponent.  Goes to show that coaches and boosters probably lay action too.   ANYway,   I see this as a good spot for Texas, and while Kansas has plenty of motivation still being in contention for the Big 12 North, the talent disparity here is big enough for me to lay the road chalk.   Key Stat:   - First of all, Kansas is losing by an average score of 47-30 against any opponent that actually resembles a Division 1 College Football Team (Texas Tech, Nebraska, South Florida, and Oklahoma.)  This doesnt take into account the 33 points they gave up to Iowa State where they needed a furious comeback to win st... [More]