Well let me state that I am joining the public on this one and laying almost two touchdown chalk on the road, so normally this play would scare the shit out of me and would probably be a no-play, but in this case I see so many mismatches I can't resist.
Play:
Texas -13.5 over Kansas (2 Units)
- The line seems to be about right as Kansas opened as 17 underdogs at Oklahoma, and the Sooners and Horns are pretty much evenly matched across the board. I will state I was on Kansas in that game and got extremely lucky on the backdoor as it looks like Reesing himself had two units on the Jayhawks and engineered a touchdown to Briscoe with less than 30 seconds left. A funny thing I noticed is Stoops looked pissed about it despite the fact he was getting a two touchdown victory against a ranked conference opponent. Goes to show that coaches and boosters probably lay action too.
ANYway,
I see this as a good spot for Texas, and while Kansas has plenty of motivation still being in contention for the Big 12 North, the talent disparity here is big enough for me to lay the road chalk.
Key Stat:
- First of all, Kansas is losing by an average score of 47-30 against any opponent that actually resembles a Division 1 College Football Team (Texas Tech, Nebraska, South Florida, and Oklahoma.) This doesnt take into account the 33 points they gave up to Iowa State where they needed a furious comeback to win straight up versus probably the worst team in the Big 12 and one of the worst in the country. Their wins consist of a laundry list of doormats that is far less than impressive.
- Texas on the other hand is winning games by an average of 24 points including a 25 point rout of MIssouri which wasnt even that close. And on a neutral field I have condifendence that Missouri would house Kansas by a minimum of 10 points.
Common Oponent at the same site:
- Some will say it doesnt pay to base opinions on common opponents, but one of the games I saw this year gives me more than enough confidence to make this play. Anyone who witnessed how Texas Tech completly tore this Kansas team apart in Lawerence by a score of 63-21 (with a meaningless KU touchdown at the end) witnessed a porous defense that got shredded at will by well oiled spread offense. Texas isn't as exotic or quite as advanced as Leech's schemes but the talent level is equal if not greater and both teams take advantage of creating space and allowing their elite quarterbacks to pick apart hapless defenses. Tech scored absolutely at will in that game and I almost felt embarrased for Kansas although I have no allegieance to them and had two units on Tech.
Motivational Factor:
Both teams have motivation and there is no let down or potential tank scenario here. KU is still in contention for the Big 12 North, and Texas is 3rd in the BCS and is very much still alive, especially if Oklahoma takes down Tech next week which is very possible and some will say likely. Add in that Alabama is no shoe-in to win the SEC championship and old Mack has everything to play for and absolutely every reason to run this one up. He is going to need style points as other famous run it up intentional spread coverers Urban and Carroll are going to be pulling out all the stops this weekend as well. Which leads to my next point:
Backdoor threat:
- KU does have a solid offense and Reesing is fully capable of engineering a backdoor, but in this case I don't think it will matter. I think Texas will be up by at least 3 Touchdowns late due to the fact they should be able to score at will versus the less than stellar KU Defense and have a good enough defense to stop Reesing at least 4-5 times. Add in the fact that Mack will not step on the breaks and I could see Texas themselves getting a backdoor if KU somehow manages to cut the deficit to 7.
There is no look-ahead factor as the Longhorns have A & M on deck and they don't even play them for another 11 days with a bye next Saturday.
Bottom line, KU is a solid program at this point but they are not in Texas' league and if they can't handle Nebraska they are certainly not going to stop Colt and Company. If this was an early season matchup I would probably stay away but the BCS and conference championship scenario combined with no real lookahead threat for the Horns makes this a juicy spot for them IMO.
Best of luck this weekend guys.