I've been reading this site for three years now, never thought about posting until this year.  Mostly because I was the definition of a square bettor living on ten point teasers, parlays, and the like.  I've learned alot from these forums and from losing those ridiculously stupid bets, and while I do not consider myself an expert I have learned enough to have had some success this year.

 

In any event, I should preface by saying I am a Cowboys fan but I have a strong play for this weekend, and that is fading the living hell out of Dallas.  Being a Cowboys fan living in Minnesota, I am also intimately aware of the skills (or complete lack thereof), of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger, both former Vikings and the latter who played high school ball 50 miles from my town.

 

Here is my attempt at a writeup as to why I think NY will win by double digits at a minimum.

 

1. NY Pass rush vs Bad Brad or Brooks.  This is probably obvious to most but is one of the biggest matchup mismatches on the board this week.  Johnson as we all know is a complete statue that doesn't have the arm to punish teams for blitzing.  If Brooks plays, the guy has the moxy and toughness of a field mouse.  Add in the fact that Dallas' "vaunted" offensive line is much stronger at run blocking than pass blocking, and we have a recipe for disaster.

 

2. Cowboys are completly decimated by injuries.  The most vital part of the offense, Witten, is banged up and may not play.  The secondary is completly decimated and is considering playing Anthony Henry at free safety (almost as slow as Roy the Safety Williams).  TO is going into full sulk mode, Patrick Crayton dropped not one, not two, but three crucial balls vs New York last year after talking smack all week, Roy the WR Williams has no clue how the offense works yet, and their best playmaker, Felix Jones, is out.  Add in the fact that Bradie James is lumbering now, and Dallas' defense has a very slim chance of containing Eli, Jacobs and company.  I know that alot of people are patting Wade on the back for dialing up blitzes against Garcia last week, but Tampa did not have the punishing threat of Jacobs.

 

3. NY smells blood in the water.  This would be an opportunity for the Giants to go up 2 1/2 games on Dallas, effectively 3 1/2 with the head to head win.  The crowd will be in a lather as while the Giants fans toy with hating the Eagles and Redskins, their fury pales in comparison for Dallas.  Flozell Adams will have at least 2 false start penalties with the noise and the fear of NY's feroucious pass rush.  Marc Columbo is no match for either Justin Tuck or Kiwianuka (spelling?). 

 

4. Bottom line: NY will dominate the line of scrimmage and pound Jacobs, setting up play action for Plax (even a banged up Plax over-matches Mike Jenkins and Anthony Henry).  Whoever starts at QB for Dallas will encur at least 4 sacks, and will be constantly hurried into mistakes.  I predict at least three Dallas turnovers.  Dallas' only chance is if Barber has a monster game, which I do not see happening against New York's D on the road.

 

In my heart I hope I am wrong, but I will be taking NY -8.5 for at least 4 units.

 

Of course being a first time poster I may be good for fade material, but I see this as my strongest play on the board this week.

 

GL to all.