Well, I almost literally flipped a coin here. The football Gods have blessed us with another difficult game to cap, but at least this should be an entertaining matchup. Neither team has a major advantage in this game as their strengths or perceived strengths fly into the faces of the other teams strengths as well. If I wasnt a degenerete I might even lay off this game but God knows that would be an impossbility so here we go:
Playing:
New Orleans -1
Thinking about Greenbay +7.5/Over 45 as both a middle opportunity, a hedge, and just for the hell of it as I see this game going over and staying within a touchdown differential either way.
Stats:
As I mentioned above this is a strength versus strength matchup. Brees is on pace to break Marino's single season record which is actually quite an accomplishment with the injuries they have had. NO has the number one passing offense in the league and they are averaging over 330 passing ypg at home and also over 420 total yards. Conversely, GB has been very strong against the pass this season only surrendering under 160 passing yards per game on the road.
GB has been gashed on the ground on the road but the Saints pose little threat of running the ball, so this will fall completly on Brees vs GB's amped up secondary. Defensively, the Saints have had all of the stoutness of a used giz rag but at home they have performed much better, giving up 7 less points per game and 50 less yards at home than away.
Statistically, very small edge to the Saints, and I mean very small.
So now that we have established strength vs strength statistically the only way to make a decision is to examine matchups and other situational factors.
Factors in NO's favor
- The Packers have had alot of success against the pass this year because they disguise their coverages well, mixing in bump and run with zone, and their corners do a good job jamming on the line. They are a major mismatch to a quarterback that fails to read defenses effectively but Brees is proving that he has little trouble moving the ball versus any defense. The Saints have little ground game and have major issues with short yardage situations but the Packers run defense is one of the worst in the league and Deuce may have a chip on his shoulder since he has one more chance to roid up before his suspension hits. Short Yardage will be critical in this game.
- Although their secondary has been stout, losing Nick Harper is a blow to the defense in the middle and Al Harris can be had in the open field. Harris does a good job of jamming receivers and is a physical corner but lacks the speed to run with quicker receivers. I'm guessing they will matchup Woodson on Colston which may neutralize him somewhat, but if Henderson or Moore can get by Harris on the line they could have downfield success.
- On the other side the Packers offense is built primarily around the stretch play and slant routes across the middle, with the occasional bomb to Jennings sprinkled in. NO's defense fails miserably against smashmouth type teams but luckily for them the Packers running game is built more on misdirection than slamming the defense into submission. The Saints linebackers are not exactly run stuffing beheamoths but Fujita, Shanle, and Vilma all have above average speed with could allow them to get to the outside quickly to jam up the stretch play, which Green Bay relies on heavily to set up play action for Rodgers. Of course, with their run game built on the stretch and counters they could expose over-pursuit by the Saints linebackers, small worry about that. New Orleans secondary will most likely be somewhat exposed as Mike Mckenzie and Jason David have little chance of reigning in Driver and Jennings, so stopping the run for the Saints will be critical.
- Really, there are only two factors here I see that are overwhelmingly in the Saints favor: 1. they are more desperate and 2. they have a big home field advantage as is and havent played in the Dome in over a month in a half.
- Im not saying Green Bay has nothing to play for here as Chicago and Minnesota both won yesterday, but even with a loss they are only one game back in a division where there is zero chance of a wild card spot. Not a let down spot for Green Bay but if the Saints lose this game they can pretty much pack it in for the season, as a loss would put them 3 games back of Carolina with only 5 left to go. The home field crowd will be lathered up and i am counting on this to force a Rodges mistake or two. Rodgers played very poorly in a similar environment in Minnesota and the only reason the Packers kept it close was their defense and special teams. They are facing a different beast on offense tonight so Rodgers will have to match Brees in a shootout and I am giving Brees the slight nod.
- Finally, most of the bets are rolling in on the Pack because of their rout of Chicago last week and the fact Bush isnt playing. Im not putting stock in that rout as Orton was clearly rusty and the Pack jumped on them early, and the Bears are ill prepared to play from behind, which led to the wide scoring differential. As far as Bush goes he is elite in special teams but i believe would not be a huge factor on offense. The Saints will be better off going straight at the Packers in the run game rather than trying to get outside, so this may actually help New Orleans.
Either way, tough game to cap. I see alot of points scored and will be close either way.
GL