Well I was going to wait until after Thanksgiving to post to see how I made out but I don't see myself having much time this weekend with travel and all.
On a bit of a lucky run with my 4 unit plays, 4-0 so far, so I'm either going big or going home this week as I'm going to play two. I might be making up for the slaughtering I took in college last week, and lets hope I don't get burned for being cocky here, but I see two standout plays this week:
Playing
Buffalo -6 (Hook) Over San Francisco (4 Units)(Normally I don't buy the hook on 6 but I have a general rule when I'm putting larger money down its better safe than sorry, and 6 is a very possible score differential. Weather may be less than stellar in Buffalo and I'll be damned if I lose on a fluke missed extra point or some shit like that).
Stats:San Franciso's Defense has allowed 30 points or more six times this season. They are also third to last in scoring defense surrendering over 28 ppg, including almost 31 on the road. Their high priced hodgepodge of expensive free agents are allowing almost 380 yards per game on the road, including almost 280 vs the pass (way to earn that 60 Mil Nate Clements). Their 3 wins have come against Seattle, St Louis, and Detroit, who sport a less than impressive 4-28 SU record collectively. Against teams at or above.500, they are being outscored by more than 11 points per game. In some fairness, alot of these stats are indicitive of the performance of Hall of Fame nominee JTO O Sullivan, but Shaun Hill is not exactly what I will call a massive improvement, so I am putting stock in them.
- I wont thrill you with Buffalo's majestic stats at home, cause they really don't exist, but they allow 100 less yards per game than San Fran and statistically play much better at home, even including their impressive rout of Kansas City last week.
Real Reasons and Other Factors:-
My main reasoning behind this play is a fade of both Shaun Hill and San Francisco's defense in a bad body clock game. Here we have another case of a West Coast team travelling east to get gashed by their East Coast bretheren in a 1 PM matchup. Buffalo is 1-1 ATS so far in this situation, with a win over a talent-wise superior Chargers squad, and a victory they skinned out late vs Oakland. The difference between this and the Oakland game is the weather will be under 40 degrees and the Hawk may be coming in, not exactly a great scenario for a California team. Note, I am also aware that Miami failed to cover against both Seattle and Oakland in body clock scenario's but 1) the line was larger in both cases, and 2) they were playing in balmy Florida, not the Minnesota-esque Buffalo.
- After incurring a 4 game losing streak and a heartbreaking loss to Cleveland on MNF, the Bill offense woke up and destroyed KC last week. Note - I am not over-reacting to this as I understand KC's defense couldn't stop San Diego State but it shows that Edwards may have pulled his head out of his ass and the offense appears to be playing with more confidence. Edwards' achilles heal is turnovers, something that San Fran's D struggles to create. The Bills should have success in the run game as well as I can count one player on the Niners defense who poses any threat whatsoever to containing Buffalo's attack, and that is Patrick Willis. Willis will be a challenge but I expect Lynch to have a big day, setting up play action for Edwards, and allowing Lee Evans to potentially get deep and torch either the overpaid Clements or the over-rated Walt Harris, if you can even call him that.
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I am aware that the Niners offense has had a bit of resurgance under Shaun Hill, but I see him struggling mightily in this scenario unless they can pound the ball. Since The Niners offense rushes for barely over 70 ypg on the road and Buffalo's Defense only allows 100, it does not seem likely that Gore will be able to take the load off of Hill's shoulders, which means he will be attempting to cut through the hawk and most likely throwing a pick or two.
- Aside from line of scrimmage, offensive, defensive, body clock, and weather scenarios in favor of Buffalo, they also hold an edge in coaching and more prevalent, special teams. Being that San Francisco will be punting often the Bills return attack should have great success setting up a short field for Edwards to work with. Jauron isnt exactly HOF material but Singletary is an assistant coach at best and Martz's schemes do not work well in cold, windy, and potentially snowy weather.
Almost every situational advantage favors Buffalo here, and I am confident they emerge victorious by at least a TD.GL