BigdaddyQH's Blog

What to Look For From your Book

By BigdaddyQH | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, August 06, 2009 12:40 PM   9 comments
I had dinner with an executive from major hotel in Las Vegaslast night.  We were discussing football, and what the books will do this year.  Here is part of what he had to say.
 
He said that the economy is going to hit the books hard this year.  Because of that, look for more line changes than normal because the books are not going to be able to pass off action if the wagers become to one-sided, like they did last year.  The books will make more of an effort to get as close to a 50/50 split than they have in previous years, and that means more line movement.
 
He said that while there may not be a huge difference in wagering lines in Vegas, the offshore books may be different.  They are not nearly as coordinated or as big as the Vegas books, so you may see a bigger difference in lines at various offshore books.  If you can divest, and spread your action over several books that can be trusted, you will be able to shop for lines.
 
He also suggested that lines should be played as early as possible (as in Sunday afternoon or evening, depending on where you reside) and as late as possible (meaning an hour or less before game time) to be able to detect line movements, avoid the "tricks of the trade" (lead lines, bait and switches, etc...) and look for possible middles.
 
That is the sum of what he suggested.  Good luck to all this season.
9 comments
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Ice4Blood says:
08/06/09 05:29PM

couldn't have said it better myself...

and to further the point... if you are going to try middling, you almost have to enter every week with this as a strategy... meaning you are targetting lines early in the week with the intent of going for a middle...

but now you are gambling on the line movement itself... and you can get burned in two ways... if 1) you were intent on hedging out of a bet, and the line doesn't move, you are either stuck with it, or lose the juice... or 2) if the line moves the wrong way, you are screwed...

in this strategy, if you are wrong about the line movement even 48% of the time, it's already a bust...

 

better to pounce early, like the man said, where you think the value is, and if you are right more often than not, it means you are sitting with better value than the books want you to have...

DoubleUp4Life says:
08/06/09 05:49PM
Posted: 8/5/2009 2:57:25 PM

Nice thread Brother

I was Hoping you could answer my ???

I have been asking for weeks now !!

 

 

 

where Purdue is 5.5 Over/ under and what Juice did you pay  ??? 

CalBear says:
08/06/09 07:17PM
I agree with a lot in this thread.  I find it extremely helpful to create my own lines for the up coming week, before the lines come out, as a guide.  I have a pretty good feel at what the lines will be for most games,so where there is a significant difference I find value.  For example, if I come up with a line of say -10 for team A, but the line comes out and they are -4...I immediately add that to the list of games I will be breaking down.
QBoption says:
08/06/09 07:25PM
...How do you tell the difference between a lead line and sharp move?..
DoubleUp4Life says:
08/06/09 07:28PM

C'Mon Brother ... seriously you were delayed for weeks

until someone in this thread said 5.5 was up at the HILTON ....

Just try to keep it real with your Covers Brothers

You do have some good College Football Knowledge and are a solid add to the forum

But why not stop with the

1 Leg Breaking Bookie with crazy collectors -

2Selling Trends to casinos -

3 Cartel/ Mafia, Pounding the Lines

 4USC Grad ??// Maybe

5 Fake Wagers 

+countless other Lies you have been spreading here on Covers ....

 

DoubleUp4Life says:
08/06/09 07:30PM
  Peace to You Brother BigdaddyQH

 

Let's squash this

 

Let's make some Money this season

 

 

nostradamus12 says:
08/06/09 07:53PM
bigdaddy - are you going to post all of your plays as they are wagered in a weekly thread this year? - mainly curious to see the timing on Sundays and numbers you get each week in vegas as opposed to offshore, and also the actual execution of any middles,etc

 

other than LVSC numbers around 4 EST which are sometimes not even close estimates, i'm not aware of anyone from vegas area ever posting any numbers from vegas any earlier than offshores over last couple years, normally if they're available in advance of everywhere else someone posts them

DoubleUp4Life says:
08/06/09 08:17PM

Many LVSC Line  are way off ... on a weekly basis not many are Dead on

Thanks for clearing that up Brother Nos...

Somebody on here was just trying to tell me they were DEAD ON.. I forget who?  I will cut and paste that part of your Post if you don't mind??

You Bring Up a awesome Point

Cherry Picking Lines is Famous on Sports Gambling  Message boards and by People that are tout like scum.......

 I have known several people + several thousands of Posters that Would Use the Sunday Opening Lines ,as late as Tuesdaywhen the Lines have Moved 3+ or over key numbers..

Suprise Suprise it was always in their Favor 

SHowing how Smart they are  ...

...

Meanwhile Last year 

 I lost Points, plenty of times last year wagering on Sundays(as posted)when the Greek and 5 Dimes released their lines I always go Nutz......

It Happens to everyoneDoesn't mean you will win or lose ...

your First  read on a game is usually your Best !!!

 

 

nostradamus12 says:
08/07/09 06:08AM

where's bigdaddystarting to feel like double up here

 

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