Undervalued college football teams in 2010

I like to bet 1-2 dogs a week pretty big so I look for teams early in the year with betting value. Here is my list of teams I think are undervalued heading into the season.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying that these teams will be playing for the National Championship. This is just my list of teams that may be better than perceived, thus possibly resulting as moneymakers for us gamblers this year. Feel free to offer me your feedback or add teams of your own.

Ole Miss - Old Houston Nutt is back where he likes to be: In the underdog role. Last year Ole Miss was hyped all preseason and fell flat on its face early on. Then when no one was talking about them, the Rebels went on a run during the second half of the season.

For some reason, Nutt's teams are much more dangerous when little is expected out of them like this year. While Ole Miss isn't predicted to do much this year in the SEC, they still have some talent that could make them dangerous. The strength of the Rebels is on the offensive and defensive lines, which I think is key for underdogs to stay in games.

I like Brandon Bolden and behind that line look for the Rebels to run the ball a lot this year while they break in a new QB. Still, how much worse can Nathan Stanley or Raymond Cotton play than Jevan Snead did last year?

The Rebels are replacing a lot of key players but coaches like Nutt seem to thrive in this position and get the most out of their team. I think ... [More]

How Impressive was Evan Dunham?

First off, the judge who gave the fight to Griffin should be banned for life. Luckily it didn't cost Dunham the fight but anyone who thought Griffin won two of those rounds must be crooked. There is no way around it.

But how impressive has Dunham been in the UFC? His ground game is sick. He reminds me a little of Nick Diaz when he gets guys on the ground. I wish I had him as a big underdog tonight. Kudos to those of you who did. That was a nice payday. Last time we will get Dunham at those odds. 

Cornell...Ever Heard of It?

Hey guys. If you are not a fan of "The Office" the title of my post is a phrase from the character Andy Bernard. He graduated from Cornell and every time he mentions the school he says, "Cornell, ever heard of it?"

I also graduated from Cornell and seen them in person 10 times this year. Does that make me an expert? No it does not. But I do know what kind of teams they can play with and Temple is that kind of team. The Owls are very good but they play low-scoring games and that is perfect for the Big Red.

Do you realize Cornell has played only one really poor game all year long? That was a no show against lowly Penn. Those things just happen some times. They gave Kansas everything they wanted on the road and even though Syracuse beat them by 15 it was a 6-point game at the half.

This game is going to be really, really tight. One of those physical, low scoring affairs. I can see it being 56-55 with 10 seconds left. Four points in this game is huge in my humble opinion.

I admit that this is a homer play but I wouldn't put money on the game if I thought Cornell had no shot. I think they match up well with Temple and I'm going to take the points in this one. This is the only wager I will be making in the first round as I'm too busy breaking down hockey games right now. I will leave the rest to you guys and sit back and enjoy the other games.

My Play:

Cornell Big Red +4 $500

I will also p... [More]

Huge Play for Wednesday (Vandy at Alabama)

Alabama -1(10*)

I love this spot for Alabama. Vandy hasn't played a road game since Dec. 11 and is coming off a big win over Florida. Vandy has never been a strong road team and is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 away from home. Alabama has lost to a couple of strong teams this season but I think they are primed for a big win because they have really started to play well and adapt to Anthony Grant's pressure style defense. I also think the Tide has a nice advantage down low with JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the boards. I think Alabama is peaking at the right time. I like them to control the pace of this game and physically beat up Vandy in the paint tonight. I may play one or two other games just as big as this one throughout the year but none bigger. A 10 unit play is a max wager for me in CBB.

Good luck if you decide to play along.

Hammer Time! ***Ravens at Colts***

Playoff Record: 3-1 +7.5*

Wildcard Round Recap

Jets (3*) 

Packers TT Over (5*) 

Packers (5*)

Packers/Cards 2nd Half Over (5*)

I had a good start to the postseason going 3-1 last weekend and clearing 7.5 units. I have one play I really like for Saturday:

Ravens +7 (5*)
I really think this is going to be a close game. The Ravens pass defense has gotten much better as the season has gone on and one has to believe Ed Reed has something to do with that. Baltimore has to be brimming with confidence after ending Brady and Belichick's perfect playoff run at home. I know Flacco didn't do much in that game but I think a lot of that had to do with his hip in the cold weather. He didn't look right from the start in that cold weather. This week I think Ray Rice will open up some play action down the field. Derrick Mason had a big game the first time these two teams met and the Ravens defense caused some timely turnovers. I think the Colts may pull this one out but I see another close game between these two. There is just something I like about this Baltimore team and I see them covering a touchdown Saturday night in a well-played, hard-fought game.

Anyone who would like to discuss this game more in depth, please feel free to comment.

... [More]

Hammer Time! (Green Bay at Arizona)

Playoff Record: 1-0 +3*

Jets (3*)

I bet these earlier in the week as posted in another thread. Here is what I have for today:

Packers TT over 23.5 (5*)
Green Bay has scored at least 24 points 11 times this year including six out of its last seven games. Win or lose I like the Packers to reach 24 points today.

Packers PK (5*)
Packers front seven wins this game in my opinion. I think Green Bay is the better team in every area but where they really have the edge is their front seven against Arizona's offensive line. I think Kurt Warner will be under heavy fire all game long and that will be the difference here.

Bringing Down the Hammer: Wild Card Weekend

At this time of year I think three things are very important in determining who moves on and who goes home. Those three things are coaching, quarterback play and defense. Very rarely will you see teams advance all the way through the playoffs if they are not strong in those three areas. It happens from time to time but not often.

So with that in mind, let's look at this week's games:

Jets/Bengals (Bengals -2.5)
It's hard to give a big coaching edge here. You can argue one way or another but it's not a big enough gap in my opinion to offer one team a major edge.

The Bengals have played well on defense this year but the edge has to go to the Jets. Ryan is a great defensive coach and few teams have a guy like Darrelle Revis who can totally take one player out of the game. That is a huge factor at this point in the season. The Jets get the nod here.

Even though Carson Palmer has struggled recently, there is no way a rookie making his first start gets the nod over him. The Bengals get the edge at quarterback but because Palmer isn't playing well, it's not as big as it would have been a month ago.

Cowboys/Eagles (Cowboys -4)
Wade Phillips has done a great job with the Cowboys defense but he's never won a playoff game. Andy Reid may have never won the big one but he has cashed his fair share of playoff wins. He will have his team ready this week and the edge clearly goes to Reid.

I think the gap between the Philly defen... [More]

***Bonehammer's Wednesday KO Plays***

OK, I'm putting these plays in right now. Since these are my first posted plays, I would fade me. With my luck, I'll probably start off slow. Nothing ever comes easy with me. lol Good luck to everyone today.   Phillies -132 (2*) Phillies TT over 5 -120 (2*) My beloved Phillies have turned into an over bettor's dream. Their starting pitching has been garbage and their bats have really awakened over the past couple of weeks. Right now Philly starters have an ERA of 7.52. Ugh. Blanton was batting practice in his first start but actually pitched much better his last time out. Looper has been solid in two starts but he has a big problem tonight and his name is Ryan Howard. Howard is 4-for-5 with four homers and two walks in his career against Looper. Overall Looper is 2-6 with a 5.53 ERA against the Phils. Philadelphia batters hit almost .300 against him. I think the Phillies bats stay hot and Blanton does enough through six before turning it over to the pen. I have this number coming in at 10-11, that's why I opted to take the Phillies TT instead of the over 10.   Rays/Mariners over 9 (1*) Two average pitchers in this one who I don't project to go very long. I always like to take Overs when there is a decent chance neither pitcher will last more than five innings and that's what I see in this match-up. The Rays pitching has been a trainwreck overall this year and I don't see that changing tonight.   I may have one o... [More]

Introducing Myself to the Covers Community

Hi everyone. I am going to be posting my picks here at Covers and wanted to introduce myself to everyone.   I have been gambling for roughly 30 years. My father was a big-time bookie so I got into the game at a young age. I was a professional handicapper for a few years but the industry just wasn't for me, so I left. I just can't deceive people who are placing their hard earned money on what I say. Some people are cut out for that business but I'm just not one of them I guess. I made some coin giving out picks but I also got ulcers because even the honest cappers like me have to lie from time-to-time. They call it "marketing" but it's just another way to say "deceiving people." Besides, you can follow much better cappers on places like Covers for free. Trust me, that's a fact.   I may be new here but I feel like I already know most of you. I have followed guys like Badlands, Bird, AJ, TRoe, Game Hunter, FSUDrew, RevengeisSweet, Gorden Gekko, ManRam, Powercappers, KOAJ, Papi, Baarn for years just to name a few. I don't mean to leave any of the great cappers out but the list is just too long of all the guys I read on a daily basis. I can honestly say that I have met over 100 pro cappers in my time and I have learned much more from you guys than I have any of them. Another fact.   So the obvious question is why have I waited so long to sign up? It's because I'm an honest person and I know how you all view "Touts." I didn't want to deal ... [More]