Borat38's Blog

Posted Wednesday, February 13, 2013 10:50 AM

Injuries Aplenty in Tonight's Games

HOU: James Harden
SAS: Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson, Manu still out
NYK: Tyson Chandler
MIL: Monta Ellis, M'bah A'Mouteh
INDI: David West
LAC: Chauncey Billups
DEN: JaVale McGee (in addition to Iguodala, Chandler, Gallinari)
CLEV: Kyrie Irving
BRK: Deron Williams
*Most of these are day-to-day, but I don't think James Harden will play.  Rolled his ankle pretty bad when he stepped on David Lee's foot.
*And about BOS: Rondo is out for the rest of the season.
Question for tonight: which angles would come into play?  Hmm....... [More]

Posted Friday, January 11, 2013 09:38 AM

NBA 1-11-2013: Portland's Mini-Run Ends Tonight

Lovely 3-0 night last night, gents!  Talk about nerves with a 0.5pt cover on NYK. 
On to the next plays:
DEN -10.5If you want free money, take DEN ML.  But why settle for a low return when a +/-90% ROI beckons?   With the line this high even after DEN's recent wins, you know there's something bad in store for CLEV.  The Cavs just notched up a respectable 16-pt win vs ATL last Wed.  It's time to go back to their losing ways 

GSW -7  Just when you think POR's hitting a groove with 4 straight wins, and after overachieving on the win vs MIA, here comes the mini-crash from my favorite NBA team...  POR's a decent team, but GSW is primed to win and cover this one.
POR@GSW Under 198.5Am not sure why the total is set this high.  The math on my spreadsheet says the total should be much lower than this, and I'm trusting the numbers.  Just because GSW slackened up on D their last 3 games doesn't mean that's a trend to ride on.  
++other notes: undecided on the HOU@BOS game, but leaning HOU +2.5.  Depends on how HOU bounces back from a horrible 4-19 shooting in the 4th q last game vs. NOH.  One thing is sure, though--if this game shoots over the total—which I think it will—HOU will not only cover, it will win SU.  If the game goes Under, then it signifies that BOS will be in control throughout.  Do not mind the fact that BOS might be in revenge mode after a 89-101 loss to HOU last Dec 1... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 10, 2013 10:50 AM

Carmelo Anthony is Out---

And if you've been playing the NBA long enough, you know what that means:

NYK not only covers, but could very well win SU.

NYK and the Under, folks 

*add POR +3 to that crazy mix (Oh no! MIA won't lose 2 straight!  They're MIA after all...)


Posted Sunday, December 30, 2012 09:07 AM

Gambler's Logic in LAC -9.5

So the books, after seeing the 2-game performances of LAC and UTA, how close those games went, how UTA almost won SU last game between these two, decides to jack up the line to -9.5 when UTA "should be" looking for blood? 

Line is practically begging you to take UTA +9.5.  And knowing there are no free lunches in the world of gambling, I smell a rat.  

LAC -9.5 to the bank.  

Feel free to disagree


Posted Sunday, May 16, 2010 09:10 AM

Why Is Everyone So In Love With Orlando?

Is it because they blew their way through the first  2 rounds of the playoffs?  ORL has had the luck of the draw in this postseason more than any other team.  CHA and ATL, although possessed of very potent offenses, were ORL's regular season bitches.  If not for a last-second putback dunk by Josh Smith that resulted in a 86-84 ATL win last Mar. 24, ORL would've swept the season series between them 4-0.  Similarly, CHA took advantage of ORL's b2b situation last Mar. 14 to put up their only season win vs the Magic.  The playoffs between these 2 and the Magic have not been really competitive, with the only game the Magic failed to cover a ORL -10 game vs CHA last April 18 (Playoffs Game 1), with the 98-89 final score failing to illustrate that ORL had led by as much as 22 pts in the 2nd half.  CHA and ATL are teams that have problems with opponents that feature great centers biggest they don't have legit big men.  The Celtics are not that kind of team.

Magic vs Celtics
The Magic must've been hoping that it was CLEV who came out of the Eastern semifinal, because there is nothing on that scrub team, despite the addition of Jamison and Shaq, that would've guaranteed a Cleveland series victory.  Basically the same CLEV team as last year = an Orlando trip to the NBA Finals.  On the other hand, the Celtics are now all healthy, and are enjoying an offensive renaissance from Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo.  Yes, the same Ray-Ra... [More]

Posted Sunday, March 21, 2010 12:33 PM

Backing The Old Men In Black

Back from a 2-day hiatus to break the losing spell.  Let's see if the no-tension vacation of watching NBA games for two days has helped:

SAS ML
Don't quite understand why SAS would be a dog here, even with Tony Parker out.  Spurs have covered 9 out of their last 10 games, so this streak is no fluke.  Am usually wary of betting on teams that just came off blowout losses, but San Antonio beat GSW to a pulp with Tim Duncan clocking in only 14 mins, and 8 Spurs players were in double digits.  Combine that with a day's rest in between and you have an "over the hill" contender ready to teach these young Hawks a thing or two about veteran advantage, IMO. 

SAS +3.5
See above reasoning.

Leaning:

OKC -4
(who doesn't love these hardworking young guys?)

POR +6.5
Another young team that plays hard night in and night out.  I believe the reason PHX doesn't match up well with the Blazers is that, absent Amar'e, Portland's length and youth give the Suns problems from the center spot all the way to the matchup between Nash and Roy.  Should be a good fight, just like their 2 previous games.
 

Let's get this 


... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 09:23 AM

NBA Players' Collective Bargaining Issue: Whose Side Are You On?

After 3 heated meetings, NBA owners seem to have backed down from what NBA union VP Adonal Foyle (of the Orlando Magic) called "ludicrous".   The issues of contention between players and owners boil down to the ff:

1) Salary cap: small-market team owners and David Stern want a hard salary cap like that in the NHL, which would forbid the paying of salaries above a specific amount that each team is eligible to pay, regardless of any circumstances.  This is to level the playing field for small and middle-income bracket teams to sign top-level talent that would otherwise all be monopolized by billionaire owners like Paul Allen and Mark Cuban.  The aim here is to avoid having the same 4 or 5 teams contending for the title year after year because they can afford to retain their veteran stars.  The current soft cap is nothing more than a loophole for the super-rich owners to get around this.  
Players' position: players want to retain status quo, and retain exceptions like the Larry Bird Exception, mid-level exception, rookie exception, etc--all of which allow a team to circumvent the luxury tax if a certain player/s fall under any of the above criteria (eg., free agents who are veteran stars, first-round draft picks, free agents with extendable contracts.  Hell, that about covers everyone in uniform except for the temps signed to 10-day contracts)

2) Basketball-Related Income (BRI): Owners want to slash the players' share of Bask... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 03, 2010 07:50 AM

NBA Sunday Fade Me Plays

0-3 last night.  (sigh.  I left my mojo in 2009)  On to the next...


CHA +11
Bobcats 5-2 ATS as road dogs in December, 10-5 ATS overall as road dogs.   CHA is the silent giant-slayer of the league; I'll pick 'em any day over the Lakers or the Magic.  CLEV 5-10 ATS as home faves, 3-7 ATS overall as double-digit faves.  B2b situation favors CHA (4-2 ATS) over CLEV (5-6 ATS).

INDI +8
First, the numbers: INDI 5-10 ATS as a road dog, 6-10 on the road overall.  NYK 3-4 ATS as a home fave, 8-9 ATS overall at home, has never been tagged as a fave of more than 6 pts all season, and is 3-5 ATS overall as a fave.  Ok now forget all of that shit.
The little voice in my ear is saying that after NYK beat all expectations to hand the Atlanta Hawks their 3rd straight loss, it's going to go home and shoot itself in the foot again.  Also, if you believe the 1_Hit_Take_All  theory, you have to play against the home fave who just came off a road win as a dog. Personally, I think Nate just ejaculated all of the juice he was cooping up in those weeks bench-warming, and now it's all dried up.     

Leaning:

TOR +1
Rarely bet TOR, but I like'em now.  SAS is an excellent 5-2 ATS as a road fave, with the 2 ATS losses coming in early November.  TOR is 2-3 ATS as a home dog.  IMHO, spot here is SAS on a 5-game win streak about to be broken, and although SA is slightly better on b2b ... [More]

Posted Friday, December 25, 2009 10:03 AM

12-25-09 NBA: NYK-LAL-ORL(?)

LAL and NYK are a lock, but am really jittery about playing all 3 home faves tonight.  Something inside tells me one of them is going to be a letdown.  Which one is it? Team Disney's lazy ass Vince Carter?  The Knicks suffering another epic 4th quarter meltdown as they did vs the Bobcats and the Bulls?

From Doc Rivers: “We have our ideas and we’re going to move it around, you’ll see. I’m not worried." 

BUT: Doc also said he might sit KG for long stretches if KG feels pain again during the game. Which leaves....Big Baby Davis to man the paint vs Dwight?


Posted Sunday, December 06, 2009 08:11 AM

Why I like the Lakers and Cavs today

I rarely bet on these mofos, but LAL has one thing that PHX lacks: defense, however lazy LAL seems to be at times (but it's there).  PHX is a decent 7-6 ATS on the road, but they've beaten TOR, MIN, WAS, LAC, PHI for 5 of the 7 ATS wins on that slate. That don't impress me much. Further, PHX is on a b2b--and not just a simple b2b, but a game where they just came from a 4-game road trip, gone home, then back again on the road.  For me, that one home game is also a road game. PHX is also 1-3 ATS on 0 days rest. Fakers (-9.5) to the bank 

Don't look now, but I think the Cavs are about to mount a win streak. 3 straight ATS wins in the bag, 4-1 ATS overall last 5 games.  With Redd out, the Bucks offense is garbage without Jennings, and that little problem will be solved by the Cavs' ability to guard the drive-and-dish. Some stats for both teams:
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Cavs all day.

WAS +3
Anyone remember the long-running trend of DET not being able to win on Sundays? They're actually 5-16 ATS in that category, LOL. They've broken that jinx last January 2009, but I believe they'll fall back into it. DET has yet to show 2 consecutive SU or ATS wins since Nov 14. Some stats for/against both teams:<... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 28, 2008 11:19 PM

Has the Cleveland Train Fallen Off the Tracks?

Cleveland has failed to cover 3 of its last 4 games, dating back to Dec. 21. Its vaunted 1st half dominance is gone, having registered a measly 2-5 ATS at the half in its last seven. Without a clutch performance from Mo Williams and Boobie Gibson vs HOU in the 4th Q, they would've failed to cover the -7.5 as well.  And now they couldn't cover -10.5 against an undersized MIA team.  Now the question is: Is it time to jump ship on CLE?

Posted Saturday, December 20, 2008 10:40 PM

Why is Vegas still treating LAL as faves every game?

Don't know why Vegas keeps capping above-.500 LA opponents as dogs; the Lakers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games, including THEIR LAST NINE STRAIGHT GAMES. The Lakers train has clearly fallen off the tracks, but everyone is still treating them as cover monsters. Fade the yellow shirts, or that burning sensation in your butt would be your wallet burning a hole into your asses!

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User: Borat38
Joined: November 2008
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Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Occupation: Degenerate

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