Brocknroll's Blog

Posted Sunday, May 16, 2010 09:21 AM

Am I crazy for loving the Twins today?

 I recognize that the Yankees completely own the Twins, but this is a different year, and although NYY are 12-0 most recently vs MIN, the line is always inflated towards Girardi and Co. and the -140 and below line is telling me the Twins have a great shot against Mitre. 

 Although I like their chances, I am not brimming with confidence and am leaning heavy on the +1.5 RL for -145.

 Opinions are welcome as going against a what seems to be a GOLIATH for the Twins is always a risky prop.



Posted Thursday, March 04, 2010 10:37 AM

Am I the only one on Covers that loves the Heat +5.5 today?

 Who in their right mind wouldn't jump all over the Lakers in this spot.  Miami can't find their offense, the Lakers hit a bump in the road, and the playoff push is ON.

Miami to cover as the significant but insignificant stat is that the Underdog is 7-2 in the L9 between these two teams, and it has been awhile since Miami has shown us anything more than inept offense, and the ability to lose games.  I just have a sneaky suspicion tomorrow that they unload on the floating LakeShow and make this tight game.

 What was once a competitive team in the East, shows up healthy tomorrow and reminds us of the past.

 later today gentlemen.



Posted Monday, February 22, 2010 09:39 AM

How many "This Game is Fixed" posts do I have to endure?

My only comment to this fixing bullshit is...just imagine how many NBA players have come and gone in the league.  The fortunate and talented retire, but a majority of players get forced out because of injury and performance.  I do not mean to cause any offense to the IQ level of the average NBA player, but how easy would it be for any disgruntled player to come out and expose a corrupt organization and any/all "Fixing" that occurs daily in the NBA?  It never happens for a reason.  These games are hard fought in the trenches and when the shit hits the fan, and momentum takes over, it seems mind-boggling for a lackluster team that is against the ropes to breakthrough, but it is a reality in any sport. 

 If you choose to partake in the sordid game of gambling meant for filthy little animals, then take your lumps and realize the human factor in these contests.  If you read between the lines you realize that long-term sports' wagering is a losing battle, but you are able to keep your head above water for longer periods of time then relish the wins as the satisfaction of the victories, depending on how sick you are, can make up for those unexplainable and painful losses. 

 I am a big fan of this board but the people that come in here Green, and with unrealistic expectations on how Sports Handicapping should go down, need to mature and digest the reality of this hobby.  Quick ... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 06, 2010 07:32 PM

How can you REALLY predict the outcome of SB XLIV??

The Colts comes into this game not facing an offense as potent as The Saints since the beginning of November except against the Texans(won by 8) & The Pats(won by 1).

 

On the flip side, NO haven’t faced a defense since October as stout as the Colts besides the Cowboys(Lost by 7), Washington(won by 3), & NE(won by 21).

 

Indy comes into the game looking like a defensive juggernaut shutting down the anemic offenses of the Ravens and the Jets in the playoffs.  Flacco was struggling the L3 games of the season, and Sanchez and the punchless Jets did not have a potent offensive attack. It should be noted that the Colts shutting down the run-game of the Jets was impressive, but it is hard to gauge whether that is enough to don the Colts defense with a medal.  They were playing games close to the vest before the “resting their players” and the playoffs and had to come from behind in multiple games at the end of the season.

 

The Saints limp into the SB with a 3 game loss at the end of the season vs lower tier teams, and a lackluster and borderline embarrassing performance against the Minny.  You cannot be (plus too many) on turnovers at home and barely sq... [More]

Posted Monday, November 16, 2009 09:13 AM

MNF - things to ponder before you play

First off, it is not news that the Dogs ruled today and this was not a favorable day for us gamblers.  There is a demographic that is going to hang onto that notion and reinforce it later tonight with the DD Home Dog (old wives tale) to gain confidence against backing the Browns.  I have kept a close eye on Baltimore this year, and have a few thoughts about this matchup:

First observations:

1. Baltimore did what they should against Minny, and it turned into a shootout with a heartbreaker lost.  Nice cover though. 

2.Not many surprises the next week that they don't lose 4th in a row, the stymie the Denver offense, and the bandwagon rolls saying "Baltimore defense is fixed and we're back"

3. Realization that Cincy is for real and they were worked over in every facet of the game leading to a horrendous day from Flacco, with a dismal defense.

NOW:

1. Cleveland has had some games this year that have been so atrocious, it is beyond words.  I was not of fan of Brady Quinn before he was benched, and clearly I should not coach the NFL because my choice of Andersen proved to be the wrong one as well.  Brady is now back, and the Browns have a had an extra week to plan....not sure who that strengthens on their team, but i bet that they slept well.

2. Baltimore comes in knowing they can shut down an anemic offense who did not take chances down the field with Denver.  And then turns around and do... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 15, 2009 07:54 AM

Line movement for Ravens/Vikings...

I understand the argument for both sides of this game.  Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row, and Minny hasn't been tested.  On the flip side, a 5-0 team is laying a field goal or less, Ravens aren't the same defense as last year, AP will have a banner day, and the 2ndary has been exposed and will be exploited. 

 

I am leaning towards the Ravens but feel like there is a disparity between the consensus noted on Sportsbook.com with 86% favoring the Vikes, with 87% consensus on the Vikes with Covers.  The line came out with Minny – 3 even and has since dipped in a few shops to below a field goal, with most shops maintaining a -120 to -125 if you want to back Baltimore.  If there is such a large amount of wagering on the Vikings, why is the line not bouncing to 3.5 and back down again? 

I have been on the wrong side of a tight spread like this too many times with the most recent sting on the Titans on Sunday.  I just feel like there is not a direct correlation with the consensus/spread movement, but am hoping Baltimore figures out a way to slow Farve down, and make some big plays on defense.  The Tyree addition will not amount to much since he needs to learn the system, but regardless this is a huge Gut Check for both teams.

  ... [More]

Posted Friday, December 26, 2008 01:01 AM

NFL Game of Week but Opp - CINCY/KC

Been leaning KC +2.5 - 3 and am intrigued about the matchup.  KC playing all close games well recently without any ability to finish.  Cincy on 3 game win streak back at home.  Does Cincy really win 4 in a row?  Everyone's job on the line and I think the Chiefs feel like this a great chance to end the season on a win.  Not that Cincy wouldn't, but should be proud enough of streak heading into game.
 
KC road ATC record decent, CINCY home ATS favored record horrendous.  So what if KC has a horrific defense if Cincy has no offense to exploit it.  All of these games this week are capped tight but I feel like this is a good opportunity for the road weary Chiefs to notch a rare home win against what is considered a streaking Bengal team.
 
nothing to lose from reading articels, it seems that Herm is really getting his team fired up for a win.

This is a BIG play for me so am interested in any support/counter...


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