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How can you REALLY predict the outcome of SB XLIV??

By Brocknroll | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, February 06, 2010 07:32 PM   19 comments

The Colts comes into this game not facing an offense as potent as The Saints since the beginning of November except against the Texans(won by 8) & The Pats(won by 1).

 

On the flip side, NO haven’t faced a defense since October as stout as the Colts besides the Cowboys(Lost by 7), Washington(won by 3), & NE(won by 21).

 

Indy comes into the game looking like a defensive juggernaut shutting down the anemic offenses of the Ravens and the Jets in the playoffs.  Flacco was struggling the L3 games of the season, and Sanchez and the punchless Jets did not have a potent offensive attack. It should be noted that the Colts shutting down the run-game of the Jets was impressive, but it is hard to gauge whether that is enough to don the Colts defense with a medal.  They were playing games close to the vest before the “resting their players” and the playoffs and had to come from behind in multiple games at the end of the season.

 

The Saints limp into the SB with a 3 game loss at the end of the season vs lower tier teams, and a lackluster and borderline embarrassing performance against the Minny.  You cannot be (plus too many) on turnovers at home and barely squeak out the game by a FG in OT because the opposing team’s 90 yr old QB turned the ball over for the 5th time which was more than expected if you have tuned in to a NFL game in the last decade.  The Saints performance in this game is not a secret as millions of people watched the game, and made the same mental notes.  Coinciding, the NFC Championship game is ringing very loudly in everyone’s ears who are backing the Colts on Sunday as it is easy to digest that game and deduce that the Saints “backed their way” into the Big Game and don’t deserve to be there.

 

But with the injuries on the Colt’s end,  how can you really predict how they will perform against the NO offense?  Sanders is obviously out, Freeney may not be able to move laterally with his ankle sprain, and Jarraud Powers is banged up as well.  We all know the hype that is created with a game this big to create doubt as to who is available to start, but they will all play(except for Sanders), and even with modern sport’s technology/therapy, they will not be 100%.

 

Then you turn to the QB controversy:  Manning is one of the best QB in the league next to Brady but he has only won one ring.  He and the Colts team have the experience, and this is HUGE for him that he walks away with a second, and further brands his stamp in Canton.  Brees on the other hand, was not the most prolific college player, and after his clunker last week, there are legitimately a lot of doubts on whether or not he will come out scared and shit the bed.  Every year there is banter about the “Happy to be there” team, and the Saints are the poster child for that phrase.  I have a hard time not seeing and hearing Manning talk about the game with confetti sprinkling all over his head at the end of the game, while he digresses about the key moves to why the Colts won, but the NFL(or any professional sport for that matter), is not that logical. 

19 comments
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jfivefox says:
02/06/10 08:35PM

Wow.  I was completely sold on the Colts.  That is until I read your post.  I've reviewed many posts, done a crap load of research myself and listened to the "experts."  My knee jerk was obviously to take the Colts following the two championship games.  That being said, Colts moneyline - to me was probably the safest bet.  Following your points, I think NO +5 is the safest bet. 

I've asked myself several times throughout this process - why do I even want to bet (and bet big) on the Super Bowl?  I think the answer is, and besides obvious answers like more money in my pocket; that I want to cap this game accurately.  I want to be on the right side of the biggest wagered sporting event of the year. 

Anyway, thanks for the very well written and thought out analysis on this game.  You have me second guessing, which actually might be a good thing.  JFIVEFOX

DOVJAK says:
02/06/10 08:39PM
leaning n o    bol to all 
Maynard says:
02/06/10 08:53PM

Nice write up... I've parlayed the Saints to the over for a smaller wager than usual, just to be on the safe side. The game is vey hard to cap as you said, the total more than anything...

 

 

SCROG says:
02/06/10 10:04PM

the real hard part is how to digest saints games vs. skins & bucs.  Colts ML for me. 2-1 is a gift with Peyton at QB. Gift from Vegas.

Uconn34 says:
02/07/10 12:40AM
 hope the effort pays off.......i am back and forth with this one, its pretty funny. Kinda think its saints destiny for some reason
Splooge says:
02/07/10 01:12AM
It's very easy.  Colts win in key areas of experience, QB and Defense.  The game will be close for a while but Indy will win and win for fun down the stretch.  37-17 type of game.  Brees and Saints nice story so far but let's be real they are facing a team on a business trip and they are just on vacation.
estes1717 says:
02/07/10 01:56AM
Brocknroll says:
02/07/10 01:59AM

 Thanks for stopping in guys.  Appreciate the input and no matter what the outcome, we will live to bet another game...it just may be awhile.

Brocknroll says:
02/07/10 02:12AM

 TY JFIVE.  Go with your gut on a game like this.  The line is set to gain equal action on the game and at the end of the day, just make sure you are not kicking yourself for swaying too far from your initial assessment of the game.

 BOL later today and let's cash this ticket.

KingKenny13 says:
02/07/10 05:23AM

Ultimate_Capper says:
02/07/10 05:24AM
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 41 new orleans saints 24
monday morning headlines will read out, "drew brees has severe case of hemmorhoids & can barely walk. "
lazzybum says:
02/07/10 07:02AM
More like Saints 31, Colts 27.

Manning is the only obvious advantage for the Colts, everything else has Saints written on it.

numbersbuster says:
02/07/10 09:21AM
The Vikings defense isn't as stout as the Colts? 
bobmor says:
02/07/10 03:24PM
It's really a lot easier than you think. Since it is true that you can see either team winning, take the points and go with NO. Besides, with a name like the Saints and the terrible recent Katrina history, doesn't God have to have a little karma balance going on here. And don't give me any of that, "there is no God" baloney. There has to be a God. Scott Brown's successful quest of the Kennedy seat proved that He does indeed exist!
Brocknroll says:
02/08/10 01:11AM

 SAINTS BACKERS!!! SO FUCKING ON TARGET TONIGHT!

rollmaestro says:
02/08/10 02:44AM

Here's to us BrockN roll, we NAILED it.

Brocknroll says:
02/08/10 02:46AM

 First to respond rollmaestro and LOVING your insight.  Every superbowl is a fond memory whether you hit it or got your dick kicked in. 

Nice to hit it!

 

rollmaestro says:
02/08/10 02:52AM

True dat

WHO DAT

Winning is everything in capping/gambling... now folks in other threads (ahem, "Solid"capper...) are shouting "Fix!"

I mean, c'mon gang, nobody wants to win more than Manning and co.... except maybe N'AWLINS!!!!

Brocknroll says:
02/08/10 03:02AM

After 4 hrs of heart-felt Katrina press on CBS, and seriously ZERO press about the Colts, I thought for sure this was a ploy to pump up Louisiana all day before the Colts came out and kicked their dicks in. 

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