Brocknroll's Blog

Line movement for Ravens/Vikings...

By Brocknroll | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 15, 2009 07:54 AM   21 comments

I understand the argument for both sides of this game.  Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row, and Minny hasn't been tested.  On the flip side, a 5-0 team is laying a field goal or less, Ravens aren't the same defense as last year, AP will have a banner day, and the 2ndary has been exposed and will be exploited. 

 

I am leaning towards the Ravens but feel like there is a disparity between the consensus noted on Sportsbook.com with 86% favoring the Vikes, with 87% consensus on the Vikes with Covers.  The line came out with Minny – 3 even and has since dipped in a few shops to below a field goal, with most shops maintaining a -120 to -125 if you want to back Baltimore.  If there is such a large amount of wagering on the Vikings, why is the line not bouncing to 3.5 and back down again? 

I have been on the wrong side of a tight spread like this too many times with the most recent sting on the Titans on Sunday.  I just feel like there is not a direct correlation with the consensus/spread movement, but am hoping Baltimore figures out a way to slow Farve down, and make some big plays on defense.  The Tyree addition will not amount to much since he needs to learn the system, but regardless this is a huge Gut Check for both teams.

 
21 comments
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Brocknroll says:
10/15/09 11:59AM

 

Yup...obviously this logic has not worked so far this season which if you play the streaks, Minny will win it's 6th in a row and Balt will lose their 3rd consecutive game.  Just feel that Baltimore has a more competitive team and can buck their negative trend in the dome.  Not going to be easy, but not impossible.

nycfrotter says:
10/15/09 01:16PM

First post/ reply

Not true - Ravens did have a losing streak of 3. They lost to Pitt, TN & Indy, not necessarily in that order. Btw, despite that still like them over favre & co. Only decent defense they faced all year was SF
DOVJAK says:
10/15/09 01:19PM
andarmac99 says:
10/15/09 01:33PM
Minnesota is going to lose 3 in a row and the public will have turned on Favre.

Book it.



Brocknroll says:
10/15/09 01:45PM

Respect your opinion Andarmac and am glad to see that we are on the same side here.  Watched too many Favre meltdowns and have a hard time believing that this is the year that he does not have his typical 3-4 interception blowups.  Granted his supporting cast is much better than he has had as of late with the Jets and Packers, but they have been cruising and if Baltimore can keep him pressured and get out to an early lead, the complexion of this game will change quickly.

If Baltimore can't get the job done, there are going to be some serious questions about the strength of this team.

Gold_Rush says:
10/15/09 05:23PM

What I find interesting is that AP has not rushed over 100 yards in his last few games. We all know how good the Ravens rush D is
so its going to be Farve that has to win this..

So far the Vikings have not played a Defense even close to the Ravens level yet.
Gold_Rush says:
10/15/09 05:27PM

im not familar with that 13 pt teaser - and for good reason
how many games do you have to play

as much as I like+16 you have to win everything else 
why not just take Balt + 10 maybe 10.5 if it moves
in a 2 game teaser - the chances of you cashing your ticket is much better as you only have to hit 1 other game

Teasers are named that for a reason- but Im sure you know that


Brocknroll says:
10/15/09 07:32PM

The scary thing about AP being held in check over the last three games is that at any given time, the guy will torch the field.  Hope this is not one of those games.

VictheSlick says:
10/15/09 07:39PM
Why won't they lose 3 in a row?  They arent the patriots..
Brocknroll says:
10/16/09 02:54AM
Ravens are totally capable of losing 3 in a row.  That is why this game is such a barometer check of each team.  Everyone already has there finger on the trigger of blaming the defensive breakdowns to the exit of Rex Ryan and the loss of Scott.  A third loss wouldn't be surprising, just a disappointment from a good start to the year, and also a change in perception about the changes/losses in personnel from 2008.  The value of a 5-0 team at home by 2.5 or a FG is not great.  The wager is on the competitiveness of the Balt team, and the belief that the much improved offense can shine, and that the maligned secondary can regroup.  This may not be the game, but at some point it is going to happen.
DJTiesto says:
10/16/09 03:57AM
Go Minnesota -3 big win and over 45
topher79 says:
10/16/09 09:31AM

 

Featuring

the SDQL

Brocknroll says:
10/16/09 01:31PM

That does make sense Dakota.  Thanks for the insight.  Lately though it seems that the teams that have the higher price have not been coming through.  Makes you think the books are playing off the "Joe Public" plays and raping the squares.

proguy747 says:
10/16/09 01:41PM
Those precentages dont mean shit......  that is total number of bets not total money....

 

Sharps probably layed big money on the ravens...  that is the reason...

tsw says:
10/16/09 04:03PM

 

Not true.  Squares have done very well so far in the NFL.

 

 

ThrillaInMD says:
10/16/09 04:08PM
ravens lost 3 games in a row last year, and still made the AFC championship game. their season isnt over if they lose this game......if this game was -7 vikings there wouldnt be 50/50 action? yes -3 kind of low maybe -4.5/-5 is true #
New_Money21 says:
10/16/09 04:19PM
Vikes haven't played a good defense since the 49ers (almost lost) but we all saw the old man step up and come through in the crunch. Mind you, that was his 'official' first game considering he wasn't around for training camp.

It's Brett Favre people! And a healthy Brett Favre with Adrian Peterson at that!! VIKES WIN
itz4204me says:
10/16/09 04:30PM



When do you think this 3 game skid will start?

Sunday?
zooker32 says:
10/16/09 04:53PM
Hey morons, I live in Baltimore, and this is not the defense that won the SUper Bowl 8 YEARS ago!!  We have no pass rush, and the secondary is TERRIBLE!!  On the road, in a dome, against Favre and AP.  MISMATCH Numbnuts!!

LAy it!!!
Brocknroll says:
10/18/09 03:09AM

Great insight Zooker.  I didn't realize any of the pertinent information in your post until you sent it because I am a moron and have Numbnuts.  I am going to call my bookie and see if I can switch my bet to Minnesota ASAP.

michaelpaul1 says:
10/18/09 03:15AM
good idea...
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