First off, it is not news that the Dogs ruled today and this was not a favorable day for us gamblers. There is a demographic that is going to hang onto that notion and reinforce it later tonight with the DD Home Dog (old wives tale) to gain confidence against backing the Browns. I have kept a close eye on Baltimore this year, and have a few thoughts about this matchup:
First observations:
1. Baltimore did what they should against Minny, and it turned into a shootout with a heartbreaker lost. Nice cover though.
2.Not many surprises the next week that they don't lose 4th in a row, the stymie the Denver offense, and the bandwagon rolls saying "Baltimore defense is fixed and we're back"
3. Realization that Cincy is for real and they were worked over in every facet of the game leading to a horrendous day from Flacco, with a dismal defense.
NOW:
1. Cleveland has had some games this year that have been so atrocious, it is beyond words. I was not of fan of Brady Quinn before he was benched, and clearly I should not coach the NFL because my choice of Andersen proved to be the wrong one as well. Brady is now back, and the Browns have a had an extra week to plan....not sure who that strengthens on their team, but i bet that they slept well.
2. Baltimore comes in knowing they can shut down an anemic offense who did not take chances down the field with Denver. And then turns around and does not play to their potential in Cincy. I know Gaither was a great addition for their Denver win, and Ngata really hurt them in cincy.
3. As you breakdown this game, I see a few things. Joe Flacco is an excellent quarterback. He is poised, can make the big plays, and he has been held in check here for at least last week and was decent vs Cincy. In the position that the Ravens are in right now, I cannot see him coming out flat and if I think about the Green Bay game, I see Flacco scoring 100 in the first quarter.
4. I also see the Ravens defense, tightenting up a la Denver against this Browns team that is horrendous at scoring. For them to have a breakthrough game, I do not see it against the Raven defense that knows that this is a game that they should win easlily.
Line -11 total 38.5
I have been leaning under for 3 weeks now and was fortunate was a tease on the Atlanta game, and a straight up on last week's contest. I think Vegas is booking all Balt -5 teases with the over. Although I want to take the under, these Cleveland games can get so out of hand and you are never really sure what shit show you are going to watch.
Can anyone tell me if this Browns defense can remain competitive against Flacco and Co? When a team is 4-4 and knowing they are having trouble finding a way to win, I lean towards the dog. because of the recent past, it is tought to LOAD UP on Baltimore when they have undeperformed this year.
Bottom line you have signs of greatness on both sides of the ball for Baltimore with zilch for Cleveland. I get the DD Home Dog/Trap line call, but as much as I want to buy into it, I just can't see how Cleveland can hang in with Quinn, some bunk receivers, and a Baltimore defense that can shut you down when they get in rhythm.
Still soul searching for this game but would be interested to hear about Cleveland's defense and how they can keep this close.
BOL