Kansas City +3 
 
Cincinnati is coming off of their best two games this season including their upset win vs Washington and shutout win at Cleveland last week but I don't think they have what it takes to follow those two big wins with another win. KC will try to avoid their worst record in franchise history and for them this will be the first game vs a bad team since they won in Oakland a month ago, and only their third game vs a bad team this season (the other one was vs Oakland as well). Their schedule has been brutal but they still played well in many of these games covering 6 of last 9 and almost beating Miami, Denver, San Diego (twice), TB (OT), Jets and New England. They are playing very well for a 2-13 team. They outrushed 5 of their last 8 opponents (yards per play) and outgained 4 of last 6. Despite a very good ground effort by Cincinnati last week, they were still outrushed in that game in yards per carry and overall they were outrushed and outgained in 4 of their last 6. Fitzpatrick played well last week but Thigpen's numbers are still superior. The Bengals are 1-3-1 ats vs worst teams lately, and the Chiefs are 59-39 ATS vs better teams including 4-0 in last 4 on the road. Cincinnati as a team ranked 3 places better at home is in a 0-10 ATS group YTD. Systems: In week 17, teams with line >-7 and <7 are 0-6 SU and ATS after allowing 0 pts. In weeks 15-17, teams with line >-6.5 and <5 are 2-14 SU and ATS after allowing 0 pts. In weeks 9-17 these same teams are 12-32 su and 8-32 ats including 2-18-2 ATS after scoring <24 and 1-12 SU and 0-11-2 ATS after scoring <24 and winning at least two in a row. In week 17, teams after two dog wins are 2-12 ATS if the line is in the +7.5/-8.5 range.