[NBA Friday] Cavs for the half

Just a quick post, have to leave in 10 min

0-2 yesterday
7-10 overall -3.55 units

Friday plays:

Blazers - Cavs: Cavs -5 1st half -105
1.05 units to win 1.00

Cavs will come out very strong and hungry for the win. First game at home after a 2 game losing streak.

bol

[NBA Thursday] 2 road favs

1-1 yesterday
7-8 overall, -1.45 units

Thursday plays:
No time for longer writeups, sorry

Nuggets - Pistons: Nuggets -7 -103
1.03 units to win 1.00

Just 4 interesting trends:
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.


Celtics - Wizards: Celtics -7 -107
1.07 units to win 1.00

On a normal night, this should be a double digit blowout, I just see some problems, if Washington decides to show up today. Usually they don't, most of their player are a one-man-show (or at least pretend to), they don't deserve to be called a team.


bol @all

[NBA Tuesday] just keep going

1-3 yesterday, just some tough luck with San Antonio not hitting 2 big shots, that rimmed out and Philly playing 3 quarters pretty well against Denver. But thats gambling, you have to deal with losses as they are part of the business. Just keep it going and don't lose your confidence. Have the right mindset and deal with variance and you will be fine.

Record: 4-7
-3.45 units

Tuesday plays

Not that much time for writeups, I just came home from watching Juventus - Bayern Munich and it's just past midnight here.


Bucks - Celtics: Bucks +12 -104
1.04 units to win 1.00

Waited for this line the whole week and expected it somewhere between 8 and 10. 12 is great value for me. This is the perfect game for Boston not to cover. They played just perfect on their roadtrip and proved themselves and a lot of other guys that they still have it. They don't have to do it tonight, they most likley win, but they won't blow out the Bucks by double digits.


Nets - Bulls: Nets +6 -106
1.06 units to win 1.00


Like the Nets in this spot here. Chicago plays just awfull at the moment, losing as favorites, not covering spreads and so on. The Nets looked not so bad in New York, played 3 solid quarters but got toasted by an individual performance by Hughes. They might have a shot in winning today.


bol
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[NBA Monday] a pick for every game

Went 2-2 yesterday, the Cavs-Bucks game was so weird, Bucks start with 10-0, lead 17-10 and then go scoreless for almost 12 minutes.

Record: 3-4
-1.38 units


Monday plays:

Blazers - Knicks: over 101 1st half -105
1.05 units to win 1.00

With Oden out, that frees a lot of space for the Blazers, on both ends of the floor. He slowed them down offensively and was a shotblocker on the defensive end. Knicks will get some offensive rebounds and easy putbacks. The Knicks start games pretty fast and slow down down the stretch. They give up the most points in the 1st quarter, followed by the 2nd as they need some time to adjust defensively. So will the Blazers, I think they need some time to figure out how to defend without Oden.


Nuggets - Sixers: Sixers +6.5 -102
1.02 units to win 1.00

Iverson is back, the game is sold out, Sixers try to avoid a 10th straight loss, they get back on their homecourt. With all these facts, I think the Sixers are going to try very hard to win this game. So I see a lot of value in getting 6.5 points in this spot.


Warriors - Thunder: Thunder -7.5 -101
1.01 units to win 1.00

Warriors don't play good on the road, and they covered a lot of games because they were getting double digit points (14 in Cleveland, 16 in Boston,... [More]

[NBA Sunday] Bounceback time

Went 1-2 yesterday, tough losses with the Spurs leading 3 quarters and Dallas having a bad 9-2 start.

Record ytd: 1-2
-1.20 units

Sunday plays:

Nets - Knicks: under 204.5 +101
1.00 unit to win 1.01

I think this line is just a little too high. Knicks play worse opponents differently than better ones. They try to win with a little defense instead of trading baskets with the other team.


Cavs - Bucks: Bucks +6.5 -109
1.09 units to win 1.00

Basically a reverse line movement pick, 85% of the money is on the Cavs ats and the line dropped from -7 to -6.5. Cavs played great the last 3 games at home, but might lack a bit of focus tonight against a Bucks team coming home from a roadtrip and they should be motivated to at least play hard and contest the cavs today.

bol 

[NBA Saturday] Starting posting today

I've been reading this forum for quite a while, but never posted on a daily basis. I want to start to keep track of my record by posting my picks and a little bit of reasoning and writeups, if I have the time. I want to apologize in advance for my not-so-perfect English as I'm not a native speaker.

Of course I'm startig with a 0-0 record, but if anyone is interested, I have a 45-39 record this season, posted the sportsbetting section of a (german) poker board.

So, lets start this nicely, here are my first plays:



Saturday plays (12/5):

76ers - Bobcats: 76ers +5.5 -106
1.06 units to win 1.00

I think this is a momentum changing game for the 76ers, they are hyped about Iverson and want to turn things around. They had some tough losses and are not as bad as their record looks like. They are rested and Charlotte is on a back to back, losing to the Nets after blowing up the lead in the 4th. Philly might win this straight up.


Nuggets - Spurs: Spurs -4 @ -107
1.07 units to win 1.00

The experience and defense of the Spurs should overcome the Nuggets tonight, who had nice wins lately, but against bad competition (NY, NJ, GSW, MIN). Spurs get back on track after the loss against the Celtics


Hawks - Mavericks: Mavs -5 @ -113
1.13 units to win 1.00

Mavs after an upsetting loss in Memphis will get their focus back. Atlanta doesn't look as good as they did at the start of the seaso... [More]