CalBear's Blog

Posted Thursday, November 04, 2010 09:21 PM

Va tech 2h -10.5 LARGE and over 28

Posted Sunday, January 17, 2010 08:16 AM

Inside the #1 ranked pass defense

Take this for what it's worth, but I'm not sure how good this pass defense truly is.  In fact, I'm not sure anyone really knows.  Many take stats for face value but that can be fact, it is. I believe this Sunday's match up comes down to one thing....Can the Jets stop SD passing attack.

On to my thoughts....In general, the AFC East is statistically solid against the pass, except for Miami.  Below are each teams defensive rankings against the pass. 

Pass defense rankings
Jets #1
Bills #2
Pats #12
Miami #24

I find it ironic that the #1 and #2 overall pass defense resides in the same conference...that is until you see the pass offenses in the conference.  Below are each teams pass offense rankings.

Pass offense rankings
Pats # 3
Miami # 20
Bills #30
Jets #31

Each defense see's some of the worst pass offenses in the league, except for NE.  NE is the only team to present a threat thru the air and except for 1 game against Buff, Brady and co. has torched each of these defenses.

Miami's low ranking can be explained by their competition.  They have faced some of the stiffest competition in terms of pass offense.  They went up against 7 teams in the top 10 in passing...including each of the top 5!  If the Jets faced this kind of schedule and put up those numbers I'd be sold.  But they haven't.  They faced a total of 5 pass offenses in the ... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 07, 2010 08:35 AM

Texas vs Bama

This is a match up I'm really looking forward to and I believe will be tightly contested despite what many others may believe and despite how each team performed in their last games.  I admit, after each of these teams last games I immediately thought that Bama would roll Texas.  The thought process was simple...Texas struggled against a Nebraska team that has a great defense but no offense and now they face a Bama defense that is better and has a offense.  Simple ha?  However after looking deep into this game, this will not be as easy for Bama as people may think.

Texas backers are pointing to the fact that the Longhorns are statistically the best run defense in the country. However, we all know the Big 12 is a pass happy offense with very few teams that run the ball well.  The two best rushing offenses Texas has faced are Oklahoma St (23) and A&M (30).  So I don't think there as good as their 62.3 avg they allow, but they still have only allowed only 62.3 per game and that is a sign of a great D no matter who they are facing.  I believe this run D will do just enough to slow down what Bama does so the ball. 

I, like many others have knocked the fact that Texas is not as good a run defense as their stats may show because the Big 12 is pass happy....but let's look at the otherside.  Their pass defense is much better than their number 25 ranking.  I believe it is their pass defense that will be th... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 28, 2009 07:04 PM

North Carolina at Virginia Tech

I was expecting an O/U in the high thirties, however, I guess VaTech's recent scoring outburst of 35 ppg in their last three have set a line of 43.  This play seems almost to easy   Sure VaTech has been lighting up the scoreboard, but outside of Bama, this will be the best D VaTech will face.  UNC is currently ranked 7th in overall defense, meanwhile, VaTech's last three opponents ranked 44 (BC), 64(GaTech), and 48 (Duke).  On the other side there is no need to explain how pathetic UNC offense is....these guys are bad and I don't know where they will get their points.  I like the under and a slight lean to VaTech -16.5.



Posted Monday, October 05, 2009 08:23 AM

How many points will Oakland get against the G-Men

I looked at week 5 lines and I was surprised to see the Giants are only -13 against Oak.  I don't see how anyone can even consider playing Oak at this number.  Sure they will get the "public" action like they have each week,  but this has not stopped them from covering....they are 3-0-1 on they year and I see them going 4-0-1 after week 5.  I was expecting to see a New England type of line from their 07-08 year when they were favored by 17-20+ on several occasions during that year. Even at this number I couldn't back Oak. I could see this line go past 14 by kick-off.

Posted Monday, September 14, 2009 12:08 PM

Monday night double header

1-1 YTD
Went 4-2 Sun., but 1-1 posted.  Tonight I think Joe Public gets rich.  I'll let the "sharps" out think themselves like they tried to do with Det.  No way in hell I'm putting my money on Oakland.  I still have bad memories of the opening night massacre that occured LY on Monday night against Denver.  I was on Oakland and that is the last time I backed them and it's not happening again tonight. 
New England -11
San Diego -10
GL all

Posted Friday, June 19, 2009 11:36 AM

Black Jack dealers

Anybody else hate when a dealer doesn't shut the fuck up and rambles about nothing?  I swear, the try to talk themselves into a tip so they are extra friendly and talk about nonsense.  This happened to me this weekend and I just could not concentrate (I somewhat count cards) and ended up losing.  They don't understand they get tipped when a player wins, not when their is friendly.  Anyway, that is just my little rant and I had to vent.

Posted Sunday, June 07, 2009 10:51 AM

New York Giants 2009 win total...

I really think the Giants have a down year in 2009.  I don't care how much of a knuckle head Plaxico is, the Giants will miss him as he was a major impact to their offense.  If Hakeem Nicks doesn't fill his shoes ASAP, which I doubt he'll do quickly, they are in trouble.  
This was evident from the time Plaxico was suspended in 2008 as the team finished the year winning 2 of thier last 6 (including the playoffs).  In this span, thier passing game dropped from throwing over 200 ypg with Plaxico in the line up to 185 ypg following his suspension.  With no passing game it becomes more difficult to run the ball,even for this great running team, as defenses will stuff the box and key in on the run.  This too was evident as the Giants run game fell 25 ypg!  With Plaxico the Giants rushed for 165 ypg and without, that avg dropped to 140 ypg and in one of those games NYG rushed for 301 yds against the Panthers.
BTW, I love the Eagles to win this division and will more than likely play the team total over 9.5 and some money on 12-1 to win the Super Bowl.
GL all...only 3 months away


User: CalBear
Joined: February 2007
Location: California

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