CaliRounder's Blog

Week 14 NFL Plays - My Favorite Play This Year!

By CaliRounder | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, December 06, 2008 07:54 PM

29 comments

What's up folks, got a couple of games to add this week that I really like... Here is the 1st one, as it's my favorite!!

Dallas @ Pittsburgh
Pit - 3 Over/Under - 38.5
Weather: 23 Degrees, Wind Chill to 8 Degrees, High winds - 22 MPH

Overview: What must you be able to do when it's really windy, and very cold??? RUN THE BALL!! And guess who is a late scratch in this one??? Mr. Marion Barber III. That leaves the little 208 LBS scat back Tashard Choice as the only healthy runner for the Dallas Cowboys. Oh baby, that is one hell of a shift in balance to the Steelers, who are playing in home, have two terrific backs who are healthy, and Mr. Dick LeBeau is going to introduce the BLITZ in Blitzburgh to Tony Romo. So, you would think that may be ok, since Dallas can throw it.. Problem is, 22 MPH winds in sub-freezing weather, and this is going to be a very long day for the Cowboys. Couple that with the fact the Pittsburgh is completely healthy, and you saw what a healthy Steelers team can do with their showing last week against The Hoody and the Pats in NE. Steelers mop up the Cowboys in this one, as they continue to improve. If this team stays healthy, we may see a Giants Steelers SuperBowl... Ist thing]s 1st, and that's to cash in on the Steelers this week!!!

PLAY OF THE YEAR!!! - Steelers -3

I would love input here.. Especially thought on the over... Right now, I am leaning UNDER.. But love the Steelers more. Lets work it together, and sting em this week. Thanks Everyone!! I will be adding more games shortly.

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Starzz says:

12/06/08 08:06PM

Dallas is in a more deperate position, Barber will play it is a ploy so the Steelers will be a bit more structured. Cowboys in a tight one will win outright Romo plays big and finds a way to win. He is great in regular season must win games, not so much in the playoffs. Good luck with your play though. I think it will soar over the total they will both be ready for the weather. Cowboys 24 -17.

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 08:18PM

Starzz, thanks for the input, however Barber WILL NOT PLAY. He did not fly with the team to Pittsburgh, and has been ruled out by serveral sources. If he doesn't play, do you STILL like the Boys?

Plus, the Steelers only have a 1 game lead on Baltimore, playing @ home before a tough 2 game road trip to Baltimore, and then Tennessee. Mike Tomlin is going to treat this as a must win, and the Terrbile Towls will rule the day.

BOL Starzz.. I LOVE THE STEELERS here!!!

mobcapper says:

12/06/08 08:26PM

I agree with ur pick. I think with barber out and dall forced to pass more, Pitt's pass rush will crush Romo and he will be good for 1 fumb and 2 int. You cnat do that and win against Pitt at home.

Pit-3 (5 units or more)

Starzz says:

12/06/08 08:31PM

Barber from what I understand is still questionable...What sources have him out. I think he a Team decision. Anyway Choice is pretty good. Romo is a Star will find a way to win big game.

Starzz says:

12/06/08 08:31PM

Is your real name Andy? How long in Cali?

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 08:38PM

Sure Starzz, here are the sources:

NFL.com
ESPN.com
Rotoworld.com
CBSSportsline.com

Take you pick..

No, my name is not Andy.

GL Starzz

jpatrick84 says:

12/06/08 08:47PM

There is a site that I found that is cheap and they have a VERY STOUT record. I currently have the All-in-One Package here. When they give their member plays you can pretty much bank on a W. www.thebookpaysyou.com

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 09:11PM

Mob! I like your style. Lets get paid this week!!

BOL

More write-ups to follow. Check back, and please provide input, it is most welcome.. Many hands, make light work

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 09:15PM

Oh, Starzz.. Forgot to answer you on 1 question.. Been in Cali all my life.... May be moving to Seattle Washington soon though.. Where you from? Are you in the Military?

landis1717 says:

12/06/08 09:31PM

no way barber plays, i'm a boys fan so this pisses me off. this game comes down to pass rush, if dallas picks up the pass rush and romo can avoid the blitzers, they win. if not, pitt wins.

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 09:35PM

Adding this play:

New England @ Seattle
NE - 6.5 O/U 43
4pm EST
Weather: 45 degrees, Light Wind, Light Rain

Overview: Weather will not be a factor. I happen to be 2 miles from Qwest Field right now... Very mild. Key thing here: NO MATT HASSELBECK. Seneca Wallace will be no match playing a NE team that must win to remain in playoff contention. Julius Jones most likely will not play as well, so watch out Seagulls. The Seahawks have the 30th Ranked D (22 against the run, League Worst against the pass). Sammy Morris is healthy again, and Randy Moss is salavating at the oppertunity to play in this one. Pats win big, as they won't be able to score much here.

Big Play - NE - 6.5

BOL

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 09:52PM

Miami @ Buffalo - Being Played @ The Rogers Centre in Toronto - This is a Dome BTW
4pm EST
Weather: Canadian

No Trent Edwards for the Bills... No Schoebel = No Bills Pass Rush. The Bills 20th ranked Rush D will get torched by a hot Miami Team, that is finding ways to win. The Bills have digressed terribly... Like most Dick Jauron teams do in the second have. Miami can stop the run, and JP Losman will turn the ball over. Miami has been winning, but not covering the spread.. Go thing for them.. All they have to do is win, and they cover!! I like Miami big here, but they are my team, so I am sentamental. I would sure appreciate some unbiased analysis on this game. Based on what I see, I love the Phins here.

Miami + 1

BOL

johnnyrudeboy says:

12/06/08 09:54PM

With you on Pitt & NE for all the same reasons. If the spread in Pitt happens to go up dramatically I may be a bit leary as bad weather is typically bad for favorites, but I think it's good up to 6.

Similarly, thanks for the Qwest field weather update. So long as it's not a factor I'll take NE up to 7.

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 09:54PM

Sorry for the type-o's I am really enjoying a the huge play I made on Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game!!!

Please provide your analysis on these posts, they are most welcome!!!

Thanks Everyone

DiscoD69 says:

12/06/08 10:06PM

Like all your plays...BOL mr. Norton

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 10:14PM

Thank you Sally Sue!! JK DiscoD... BOL

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 10:16PM

GL Johnny! I'll update the Weather for the Seattle game on this post right before game time. Go sting em!! If you like these games, I would take them now!! Because these lines will not improve for any of these teams...

Adams83 says:

12/06/08 11:02PM

Hey CaliRounder. Great write ups and I love your plays. I got NE at -6 as I see it will most likely continue to climb until kick off tomorrow.

I think Miami wins big, even though they won last week I still see a 1 point victory to the helpless Rams as a let down spot. I know these divisional games are closely contested, but as you said, all they have to do is win the game. Losman is horrible and the only way I see them scoring tomorrow is off of special teams or a huge game from Lynch. I watched the Bills game last weekend and they were straight out horrible in the red zone. the Fish will make em pay tomorrow.

With regards to the Steelers game, I like the steelers to win but i'm gonna tease them at +4 in case it comes down to a FG game and the fact that the weather could be an issue, the game could come down to the wire.

BOL !

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 11:17PM

Thanks for the great input Adams! Good luck with the tease, NE, and the Fish!! BOL on your plays, and thanks for contributing!!

CaliRounder says:

12/06/08 11:22PM

BTW, in my mind, it's a great thing when people share their insights, and take the time to share knowledge.. I think we are all here for the same goal: Pick Winners, and Win Big! To that end, I would recommend taking a look at BigHans Weel 14 posts. He has some additional insights that I enjoyed as well:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100305484

BOL!

Qb4011 says:

12/07/08 12:10AM

Romo is a Star will find a way to win big game.

what big game has romo ever won?

Dogjimbo says:

12/07/08 12:15AM

I hope Romo bring's his own vaseline. He's gonna get pounded so hard Jessica will be crying, Pitt will give T.O. something to really cry about. (Sorry, a little bias)

johnnyrudeboy says:

12/07/08 02:16AM

Thanks Cali, I agree about the lines; unfortunately though I use an old-fashioned bookie who only takes same-day bets. So far only got screwed by a bad line in that damn Chippewa/Ball St. game... Had some nice picks today with Navy, Florida, and Troy. Looking to roll it over tomorrow

lancer89074 says:

12/07/08 05:37AM

CaliRounder, a great writeup on the Blitzburgh/Dallas game. I am in complete agreement (no run = no win). Romo was knocked around earlier in the year by penetration and not many teams get better penetration than the Steelers.

Romo's starts in December from a wins/losses angle are horrific over the last couple of years. Pittsburgh is gaining momentum now and they are pumped after getting that New England monkey off of their backs. This is a bad spot for the Boys IMO. Best wishes, Lancer

Freetofollow says:

12/07/08 05:38AM

Hi Cali and everyone,

I have the Dallas Pitt game capped at

low end Pitt 24 Dall 21

hi end Pitt 27 Dall 24,

I've got NO Play on -3, but really like the Over 39. As far as running the ball for Dallas; Tashard Choice, looked good against Sea, (I know that's not the Steelers D) and against NYG he only had 5 carries, but avg. over 5yrds each. Romo either way should be able to work some magic to keep this one close. I expect a big day from Witten.

I've got No Play on the Miami game, but Luvvvin NE -6.5, Castle should have a career day against Sea 32nd ranked pass defense. Moss won't be able to get that cheese eatin' grin off his face after this one.

BOL to all!

Elvis1 says:

12/07/08 05:43AM

Pitt

CaliRounder says:

12/07/08 02:44PM

FYI, it's lightly raining in Seattle.. Little wind... Pretty mild... Should hurt NE too much.. BOL!

johnnyrudeboy says:

12/07/08 07:41PM

Who really thought Deon Branch would show up his old team? Ended up going with a NE/Steeler tease, thankfully Happy to report that worked out well after taking Tenn. earlier. A nice little profit this weekend

HMoney says:

12/08/08 02:47AM

Had the same 3 big plays

Pitt and Miami came through Seneca Wallace surprised the crap out of me.. like your insight

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User:	CaliRounder
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Location:	California
Team:	New York Yankees
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